Day 44: We're seeing insane levels of crime once again. Yesterday, Trump family's crypto project deposited 5% of $WLFI's total supply on Dolomite and borrowed $75 million in stablecoins against it. 5% of WLFI's token supply is worth roughly $500M. Then, just a few hours before Trump announced the Iran ceasefire, WorldLibertyFi sent $40M in stablecoins to Coinbase. (from the ones they borrowed) Did they use these stablecoins to long the markets, knowing what Trump would announce? No one knows, but I wouldn't be surprised. But this is what is very concerning: If that WLFI collateral position ever gets close to liquidation, it's basically unliquidatable without major losses for lenders. $WLFI has almost a $10 billion FDV, but it is not an extremely liquid asset. So imagine what would happen if 5% of WLFI's total supply would suddenly need to be sold to liquidate the position. If you have any USD1 or other stablecoins lent on Dolomite to pools that accept WLFI collateral, my advice is to withdraw it asap. Better to be safe than sorry.

it hasn't sunk in for most people. we already live in a post-scarcity society. UBI is already here. basic package: disability, medicaid, food stamps etc bonus package: literally getting paid for staying at home and hanging out with your relatives extra bonus: if you are willing to commit fraud, pretend your kids are autistic and get paid for that. get paid for watching your neighbor's kid. pretend you are taking care of your grandma. fake hospice clinic. fake rehab clinic. fake therapy clinic. giga bonus: during a time of crisis take advantage of PPP or CARES and open a fake business and get paid for existing people are shocked when they learn that defense is the FIFTH largest line item in the budget. ahead of defense: social security ($1.6T), interest on debt ($1.1T) medicare ($1T), medicaid ACA ($1T), AND THEN defense ($0.9T) complain about defense all you like, but healthcare fraud is a way bigger factor. hundreds of billions per year. this is only going to get worse, because the fraud is a structural part of the system – payouts to client groups in exchange for votes (normally D). in the US, only 47% of the population actually works (fully 14% of the population is working age and does not work). retirees are 18% and children 22%. the system I described above subsidizes 50m non-working people absolute minimum, but really it's far more because people that are paid to stay home and take care of their relatives are considered "workers" of that 47% of "actual workers" maybe one third does real work, the rest are shuffling papers around or doing fake email jobs. so you have, rough math, 50 million actual workers supporting 300 million dependents. that's the nature of the economy today. it will only accelerate. eventually you will have 10 million using AI tools to do all the work and 340 million dependents. the reason no one roots out the fraud is because it's the system that keeps our extremely fragile polity intact. the fraud is the UBI. the purpose of the system is what it does. of course, it's a deeply unfair system, because you are allowed to commit fraud if you are a politically protected client group of the democrats. DOGE was killed faster than any government program ever, because it attempted to root out the fraud. if you are honest and unwilling to commit fraud, you are a huge loser in this system. your neighbor will have their mortgage subsidized by some government program. they will get favorable SBA loans due to DEI. they will open a fake hospice or autism clinic. they will get paid for taking care of their neighbor's kid and vice versa. the primary skill in the labor market is learning how to extract money from state and federal government programs, not gaining skills or making yourself employable. if you are just trying to work an ordinary wagie job you are a huge sucker. you are paying 40-50% effective all in taxes to everyone else who is a net taker. the sad part is because AI is such a substantial productivity boost, it will actually keep this system going for a while longer, and maybe in perpetuity. AI boosts the 15% of the population that is actually productive so much that the remaining 85% can coast by. no one in charge will change this because they can't think of anything else. the political costs of a real UBI program are too great and we don't have the money for it anyway. so we will keep this covert fraud-based UBI program running indefinitely. unfortunately, if you are an honest wagie, you lose.

Our recent findings on World Action Models (WAMs): the core advantage of WAMs is not test-time “imagination” of futures, but the training-time supervision from future video prediction. We propose Fast-WAM, which makes inference simple, fast, and policy-centric.

Atoms. Http://atoms.co/vision

I just published a data dump of full order book data from @Polymarket The data is maximally granular. There is no filtering whatsoever. Every order book change and trade is saved. Across all markets Updates are hourly. Each snapshot contains ~30M rows. Snapshots are downloaded as parquet files. Each file is approx. 500MB-1GB large. The data dump is already 2B rows large and growing fast. But this is just part 1/3. Coming soon is a much bigger dump that also includes @Kalshi / @opinionlabsxyz / @trylimitless etc I started collecting this data because I noticed I couldn't get it from Dome API. Their historical order book data was filtered limiting its usefulness. Also now with the acquisition there's a lot of uncertainty about whether they will continue operating

Citron is Short $SNDK — They Don't Ring a Bell at the Top We don't need Anthropic to announce they're making NAND. Samsung is already the 800-pound gorilla, and they've been running this playbook for 30 years. While TV pundits pound the table herding retail into cattle cars, Western Digital, the long time investor, sold a significant portion of its holdings days ago, 25% lower. Ask yourself why. Because they know the cycle is approaching a peak, and they're not waiting for the bell. The market is pricing SanDisk like it's $NVDA. There's one problem: NVIDIA has a moat. SanDisk sells a commodity. We've seen this movie before 2008, 2012, 2018. It's never different this time. Memory is a cycle, and cycles peak. Samsung has a 30-year history of choosing market share over margins. They wait for pure-plays like SanDisk to get comfortable at 50% gross margins, then flip the switch. But this time it's worse. Every $SNDK bull should read attached article Samsung just told the world they won't sell anything under 50% margins and they're moving their best chips into the same premium SSD market SanDisk calls home. They're not just the capacity gorilla anymore. They're going after SanDisk's best customers with cheaper, newer technology. And the only thing keeping supply tight right now? Samsung's temporary yield problems in another product line. That bottleneck has an expiration date. With double the capacity of the 2018 peak waiting in the wings, this "shortage" is a supply mirage that can vanish in a single earnings call. Hockey shout-out: Shorting $SNDK is skating to where the puck is going. By the time the cycle normalizes, this stock will already be much lower. technetbooks.com/2026/02/sam…

I spent 100 hours over the past week researching, writing and editing the piece we just put out. It’s a scenario, not a prediction like most of our work. But it was rigorously constructed, dismissing it outright requires the kind of intellectual laziness that tends to get expensive. And we’ve released it for free. Hopefully you enjoy it. citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…

I have been a Hyperliquid User since December 2023 and I’ve always wanted to give something back to the team and especially @chameleon_jeff. He built something so incredible and exciting that I’ll be telling my grandkids about it! Here is my 59-page research paper about Hyperliquid and why it will become 'The Blockchain to House all Finance'. Since the file is too large to upload directly, I’m sharing the Google Drive link. The attached images show the Table of Contents. big thank you to @HyperliquidX and @chameleon_jeff also thanks to @mlmabc for his insane fast research! (drive.google.com/file/d/18ke…)

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