Oh no! Fable is a game changer and the US government seems to agree. The main issue isn’t even that most of us now lose access to Fable, but that they might block access to all future models in that weight class as well and not just for Anthropic.

As everyone watches the SpaceX IPO today, its worth remembering this advice from Buffett "The idea that a newly issued security (IPO)—brought to market at a time of the seller's choosing and surrounded by massive hype—is the single best bargain among thousands of global businesses is absolute nonsense. When an offering carries a ridiculous 7% commission just to incentivize salespeople, it simply cannot be the most attractive investment available. While people easily get caught up in the excitement of a new launch, look at the reality: you have thousands of existing public companies whose prices are set by a natural auction market, free from aggressive promotion or hidden fees. It makes no sense to buy a security precisely when an insider decides the timing is perfect to sell. Frankly, it isn't worth spending five seconds thinking about IPOs." - Warren Buffett

Insane take from Fable 5

This is actually insane. Turn any blueprint into a walkable virtual tour 🤯 will completely change the game for home builders.

Meet DiffusionGemma! An experimental open model that explores a fast approach to text generation, released under an Apache 2.0 license. Moving beyond sequential, token-by-token processes to generate entire blocks of text simultaneously. Here’s what’s new with DiffusionGemma: 👇

This is a super exciting release - Claude Fable 5 is the same underlying model as Mythos but with added safeguards. The benchmarks are great and it's SOTA on everything by a margin but I'll add that *qualitatively* also, this is a major-version-bump-deserving step change forward (imo of the same order as Claude 4.5 was in November), peaking especially for long problem-solving sessions on very difficult problems. You can give it a lot more ambitious tasks than what you're used to, the model "gets it" and it will just go, and it's never felt this tempting to stop looking at the code at all (but don't do this in prod!). The model still has quirks that people will run into and the safeguards are configured to be a little too trigger happy for launch, which can hopefully be tuned over time. I feel a lot of things changing as working software increasingly comes out on a tap. The Jevon's paradox kicks in and I feel my own demand for software growing substantially. You can ask for anything - explainers, visualizers, dashboards, bespoke single-use apps (e.g. a full wandb that is hyper-specific just for your project), you can 10X your test suite, auto-optimize code, run giant research projects with custom HTML for the results, anything! "Free your mind" (Matrix ref). Really looking forward to all the things people build!

this is my personal singularity moment this post may sound like a paid ad. I only wish. I'm concerned, more so than happy. the world is changing, and, among the scenarios where AI goes terribly wrong, inequality is the most realistic, yet, the one Anthropic seems to be the least concerned about. I'm glad OpenAI is taking the opposite stance: *personal AGI for everyone*. I think this is a commendable position in the times we live. but who am I in the queue of the bread? anyway, Fable is here, so I'll just report my first-hour experience first of all, all my pet prompts are solved. → λ-calculus puzzles → bug questions → one-shot apps all are trivial to it. I don't have anything harder other than my ongoing work so, in the last several days, I've been toying with HVM5, a new interaction net evaluator with a faster loop. after writing the first version, I left 32 GPT-5 agents working for ~20 hours each. this resulted in up to 2x speedups, but the file size increased by 2-fold and quality decreased significantly. I then simplified the whole thing into an even simpler core, and left Opus 4.8 and GPT 5.5 optimizing it for 8 hours. Opus got a legit 6% - 34% speedup in most benches. GPT got better results, but, sadly, an unusable file. I then asked Fable to optimize it. 2 hours later, it landed a 1770% speedup in one case, 100% in other 4, and 22% in average. yes, in 2 hours it outperformed me, opus 4.8 and a swarm of gpt 5.5 agents, by one order of magnitude. that could not possibly be legit. "it must be hardcoding the benchmarks" (GPT trauma). so I read its explanation and what it did was, indeed, the most high impact optimization one could try first. seems like HVM5 was wasting a lot of time garbage-collecting unused branches of pattern-match nodes. I had optimized that for static mats, but not for dynamic mats. skill issue. Fable figured how to do it for these, resulting in a massive speedup in some benches but wait, is that *correct*? I'm not sure yet, it is credible, but this is the kind of thing that is very easy to get wrong on interaction nets. the problem is, when I was ready to start auditing Fable's solution so I could tell whether it was buggy or legit, it interrupted me to tell me it had found a massive bug on the code *I* had written. ... wait, what? so... for garbage collection purposes, I stored a bit on lambda term pointers that meant "the variable bound by this lambda has been freed, so, its lambda must free whatever argument it is applied to". that's fine. yet, on duplicator nodes, I also used the same bit to mean "one of the duplicated variables was freed, so, treat this dup as a passthrough no-op". so, if a lambda entered a duplicator, it would mistake the lambda's collection bit for its own, resulting in corrupted interaction! that's a mouthful, why I'm writing this? just so you can appreciate the sheer absurdity of what just happened. I didn't ask it to find bugs. I asked it for an optimization. and even if I did ask it to find bugs, this bug is so astonishingly subtle and specific, identifying it takes mastering the domain to an extent that it beyond even me. I'd easily need hours or days to fix it, *if* I ever came across it. chances are it would just go unnoticed. and Fable found it and fixed it like it was nothing, while it was busy adding a 17x speedup to a file that neither I, nor Opus 4.8, nor a fleet of GPT 5.5 managed to barely make 2x faster. oh and there is also another tab where it is also ripping through Bend's codebase and finishing everything I had to do I don't know what to say anymore this isn't about Anthropic or OpenAI, this is about our collective future as a species. the world is changing, and we need to be aware of it, and discuss how to handle this change. receipt below . . .

The most underrated thing in AI right now is that “good enough” local intelligence has arrived. Gemma 4 12B on a 16GB laptop covers everything everything normal users need. Unlimited, free forever, and completely offline.

Welp, that happened faster than I predicted. Thought it would be end of 2027, then early 2027, but agentic traffic growing so fast that bots have now passed human traffic online for the first time in the Internet's history. radar.cloudflare.com/traffic…

I do this with codex all the time. Ask it to review code for bugs and it will tell you all good, tell it there is a bug and it will LOOP AND LOOP and will find issues.

Carl Jung was right when he wrote that if a man does not face his shadow by age 35 he will not improve. He will calcify. His defense will become his personality.

Codex just found a “workaround” of not having sudo on my pc…

There is so much alpha in just religiously, repeatedly invoking these magic spells throughout your agent coding and planning sessions: ❯ Great, now I want you to carefully read over all of the new code you just wrote and other existing code you just modified with "fresh eyes" looking super carefully for any obvious bugs, errors, problems, issues, confusion, etc. Carefully fix anything you uncover. ❯ Once again, check over everything again with fresh eyes looking for any blunders, mistakes, errors, oversights, omissions, problems, misconceptions, bugs, etc. Be SUPER thorough and meticulous! Maybe one day you won't need them, but for now, it improves the results from frontier models more dramatically than anything else you can do. Assign them to hotkeys or get a Stream Deck so you can sprinkle them in without even thinking about it.

Today we’re releasing DeepSWE, a new standard for agentic coding benchmarks. On public leaderboards, top models often look relatively close in capability. DeepSWE shows where they actually diverge, reflecting the realistic experience of developers in their day-to-day work.

The golden years of AirBNB were a temporary arbitrage on depreciation. There was a universe of beautiful well-maintained properties and hosts that had not been worn down by short term guests. And the AirBNB hosts didn’t properly estimate the cost of depreciation to maintain that standard, so costs were irrationally low That era fundamentally cant return, it was a temporary arbitrage opportunity There was once a supply of fairly pristine unused space and now there’s not If a space does manage to hit the 2014 standard, it must charge a lot more to fight depreciation And at that point a hotel is generally better

Ukraine is causing 38,000 Russian casualties per month. That's almost one Vietnam PER MONTH for Russia. They can't sustain that. Fund weapons for Ukraine and get this war over with. #NAFO

SpaceX IPO valuation implies a 93x revenue multiple and you don’t even have a P/E ratio because the company has negative earnings

June 2024: The latest general-purpose LLMs could not count the r's in strawberry. July 2025: The latest general-purpose LLMs get gold in the International Math Olympiad. May 2026: The latest general-purpose LLM solve one of the "best-known questions in combinatorial geometry"