Here's the work in progress Eli Lilly thesis:
* However well you think reta & the glp's are gonna sell, it will sell more - this cash windfall buys all future growth
* CEO says ~25% of revenue will always go back to R&D, soon they'll flip the budget of NIH. LLY will be a nation state actor in medicine financing
* Lillypod is bringing 9,000 petaFLOPs online, Lilly will have the most compute in pharma (more than any of the other ai pharma upstarts)
* drugs can be patented in a way software cannot, AI entrenches not erodes their moat
* Lilly has the most efficient pipeline for drug approval, this will matter a lot in a world where you think AI accelerates discovery
* If AI bubble pops, Lilly is a beneficiary of cheap compute from overbuilt capacity. all revenue not tied to AI at all (read: isolated from concentration risk)
* Lilly is curing 2 major causes of death: obesity & heart problems. People will live longer. Older people buy exponentially more drugs. Asymmetric long term growth not priced in
* ATH breakout, chart looks great (parabolic asf though)