This isn't even the half of it. Now do the hard policy tradeoffs and fiscal constraints that will ensue, especially for Asian economies.
Just take Indonesia, where Prabowo has had a lot riding on the fuel subsidy, a free nutritious meals program, and so on. And let's imagine a world of budget constraints where leaders like him may have to start curtailing signature programs that, in turn, undermine welfare gains, or else blow through fiscal constraints and run fresh budget deficits. In Indonesia's case, for example, that isn't even permitted since there is statutory requirement to hold the deficit to 3% of GDP.
We've got reports this morning of three Korean airlines in emergency management. And so much more around the region ...
Meanwhile, there seems to be a parallel debate in Washington, where there is so much self-satisfied talk in Washington about "back footing China" by "picking of its allies like Iran." But isn't it fantastical to think that a double whammy of a year of (1) American trade policy and tariffs that have undermined many of the prevailing developmental assumptions in Asia and (2) American Middle East policy that both wrecks Asian energy security and forces these kinds of fiscal and programmatic choices will have zero effect on U.S. posture in the region?
Whose debate are we having here in DC?
I used to write a column for India's financial newspaper
@bsindia called "DC Diary." Am thinking of starting a new column called "DC Delusions," in which other people's realities are extrapolated away while Washington projects its strategic debating about "competing with China" onto everyone and everything.
Bottom line: think there are some tough choices ahead for Asian governments.
It’s only week five this is the global picture as of today.
🇧🇩 Bangladesh - Fuel rationing active. Universities closed. Military deployed in oil depots.
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka - Fuel rationing active. 15 litre per week cap for private motorists. Four day school week. Scaled back public sector operations.
🇸🇮 Slovenia - 50 litre per day cap on fuel for private drivers. 200 litres for businesses and farmers. Indefinite.
🇵🇭 Philippines - National energy emergency declared. Four day working week in place.
🇵🇰 Pakistan - Four day work weeks and school closures still in effect.
🇲🇲 Myanmar - Alternating driving days imposed.
🇹🇭 Thailand - Diesel price cap imposed. Government officials told to work from home and limit travel. Fuel exports banned except to Cambodia and Laos.
🇻🇳 Vietnam - Tapping fuel price stabilisation fund. Officials encouraged to work from home and limit travel.
🇰🇪 Kenya - Rationing by major fuel suppliers ongoing. Rural areas already running out.
🇪🇬 Egypt - Fuel and electricity rationing active. Malls, restaurants and retailers shutting at 9pm. Illuminated billboards switched off. Government buildings closing at 6pm.
🇮🇳 India - Government phasing out LPG cylinders for households with access to piped gas to prioritise supply.
🇨🇳 China - Export ban on diesel, gasoline and aviation fuel until at least end of March.
🇰🇷 South Korea - Fuel price cap imposed. First in 30 years. Voluntary fuel conservation measures in place.
🇯🇵 Japan - Refiners requesting government release of stockpiled oil. 95% of crude imported from Gulf states.
🇪🇸 Spain - €5 billion emergency package. Tax reductions on electricity and gas. Subsidies for transport operators and farmers.
🇩🇪 Germany - BASF raising prices on goods by up to 30%.
What could be coming
🇬🇧 UK - Ministers could activate contingency powers to introduce fuel rationing at petrol stations. 80% of UK goods travel by road. IEA has advised considering carpooling and working from home to save fuel.
🇪🇺 EU - Emergency measures under discussion. Storage across many member states below 30%.
Shell's CEO warned Europe could face fuel rationing starting in April if the Strait stays closed.
G7 finance ministers, energy ministers and central bank governors met in Paris today and issued a joint statement saying they stand ready to take "all necessary measures" to preserve stability in energy markets.
None of these restrictions have been easing. In several countries they are only getting worse.