I was looking back at the mistake I made when analyzing
$HYPE, and I finally identified where I went wrong.
I was correctly tracking the five-wave move to the downside, but when it came time to project the Wave 5 target, I accidentally used a Fibonacci retracement instead of a Fibonacci extension. Because of that mistake, I underestimated the downside target and completely missed the move.
I've corrected that error on my chart now and have the proper Fibonacci extension applied.
Looking at the current structure, I'm viewing the move as an ABC correction. You could make the argument that the B wave is already in place. Personally, I don't think the structure looks ideal for a completed B wave, but it is possible considering the reaction came from roughly the 50% retracement of Wave A.
If that interpretation is correct, then the next thing I want to see is price break above the descending trendline currently visible on the chart. A breakout through that trendline and a move above the Wave 4 high would strengthen the case that Wave C is underway.
If that scenario does not play out, then I'll be watching for a deeper retracement into the Golden Pocket, potentially extending toward the 0.786 retracement level. Should price reach that area, I'll be looking closely for a long opportunity based on the price action that develops there. One possible setup that could emerge is an inverse head-and-shoulders formation.
Another piece of confluence that stood out to me is the centerline of the parallel channel. Interestingly, the Wave 5 completion occurred right at that centerline, adding another layer of technical support to the area and helping validate the significance of that low.
For now, the key question is whether the current structure has already completed its B wave and is preparing for a Wave C advance, or if one final retracement is needed before the next meaningful move higher can begin.