If you want to build a ship, don’t drum up men to gather wood, divide work, and give orders. Instead, tell stories of a vast and endless sea

Apple WWDC keynote was a dud. Felt like a “chatGPT year in review” type showcase. However, the market might digest this and realize there will likely be substantial addl service revenue from iCloud subscriptions. Apple is increasingly a services and insurance company imo.

Here's my assessment of what's going on inside Goldman and Morgan Stanley right about now around the $SPCX IPO. 1) The math isn't mathing for institutional investors to participate at $135/sh in the size they need them to. Research is being heavily pressured by banking to get more aggressive on their estimates/teach-in materials to try to make valuation make sense. It's not working. The biggest brass across the firms are now getting involved - Jamie Dimon & David Solomon are taking meetings - it's all hands on deck. 2) Accordingly, the bookrunners are increasing the % of the deal allocated to retail to 30%. Remember, it's the banks buying the shares from the company and if their largest institutional relationships aren't biting in the size they need them to - they have to find demand somewhere else they're going to be on the hook for the delta between $135/sh and wherever the stock trades multiplied by the number of shares left in inventory. Find the demand - whoever and whatever it takes. 3) Banks are also pressuring the index providers to create forced buying as well across a ton of indices and their associated products. This has worked in some places and hasn't in others (credit to S&P for their backbone here). This will create a large amount of demand but I don't know the math here relative to the float coming public - if anyone has seen smart math here please share. All and all, this is going to be a fascinating IPO to watch but I have next to zero interest in participating - I suspect I'm in the majority here.

FOMO vs price discovery. x.com/qtrresearch/status/206…

> “I think we're maybe 6 months from nobody caring which model they're using the way nobody cares which engine is in their Uber.” I already don’t care. The hallucinations, the contrastive framing, the UI, the acquiescence bias, the limited context - it’s meh. Ironically, in 3 months iOS 27 will have a feature a top level control in the Siri UI to let users pick the model they want to use for each query.

Very excited about this

Uber CTO “realized higher token usage did not translate into a proportional increase in useful consumer features.” How many CTOs already know this? If there’s one, there’s more. Is higher token usage somehow magically more useful for Lyft? Doubt it. And once you fire all the low token employees that aren’t productive, what’s left to save on costs? Maybe stock based comp should be tied to token efficiency, or maybe AI maxing isn’t for everyone 😬

Watching Wemby feels like watching Jordan and Kobe again. Half court shot. Amazing.

DeepSeek appears to have made its pricing cuts permanent. If frontier model pricing is collapsing this fast, what does that mean for the quarterly markups Microsoft, Google, and Amazon assign to their OpenAI / Anthropic investments? Current API pricing per 1M tokens: DeepSeek V4 Pro
Input: $0.435
Output: $0.87 OpenAI GPT-5.5
Input: $5
Output: $30 Claude Opus 4.7
Input: $5
Output: $25 Claude Sonnet 4.6
Input: $3
Output: $15

If you’ve been early, this is starting to feel like the part of the cycle where you can make stupid amounts of money.

Sources: Starbucks shut down an AI program for automating inventory counts, nine months after deploying it, after it frequently miscounted and mislabeled items (@waylon_wc / Reuters) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)

This is awesome. Google is crushing it rn. Watch the IO keynote if you get a chance.

Message to entrepreneurs Your product is their feature

13.1% of credit card balances in the US are now 90 days delinquent, the highest since 2011. 10.3% of student loan balances are now 90 days delinquent, the highest since 2020. 5.6% of auto loan balances are now 90 days delinquent, the highest level on record.

Cobra effect

Just got word Mobil and Shell have informed Costco and Walmart they have no packaged product to send them and to expect bare shelves in the motor oil section in a few weeks

Florida’s wilderness can be truly great! I’ve seen a bear, panther, monkeys, alligators, bald eagles, and more! Great shots!

This is super useful. Nicely done @supabase

amazon is about to kill so many DTC telehealth brands you can now: log into the amazon app → book a one medical appointment (no membership required) → clinician evaluates & prescribes glp-1 → amazon pharmacy quotes price upfront → same-day delivery to you or kiosk pickup

“I’m gonna run it like a family business.” - @ryancohen I suspect this is a line we’ll hear more frequently going forward. I’ve interviewed dozens of microcap CEOs, and it’s a good filter on who is hands on and who isn’t. Smart strategy with EBay.

Counties where the majority of adults (25 and up) have a bachelor's degree or higher: