My thesis for remaining bullish going into the end of the year has been built on a few things that I've covered repeatedly over the last 1 month on YouTube and here.
Summarizing my thoughts below.
4 year cycle, I've been a staunch 4 year cycle believer, it looks like a 4 year cycle, it acts like a 4 year cycle, chances are it's a 4 year cycle. That means I expect the top to form in Q4 of 2025 or early Q1 2026.
BTC/Gold ratio, Gold generally leads BTC breaks out by 60-90 days, couple with what I shared several weeks ago that the BTC/Gold bottom is in.
BTC hasn't had it's blow off top, seeing tech stocks, Gold, even some crypto companies have parabolic rallies it just doesn't sit right with me that BTC hasn't. I still believe we are due.
Weekly cycle, something I've learned from
@BobLoukas, but BTC's next weekly cycle low is due, it's either in already or will be in the next couple days. This coupled with how the chart looks and the points I laid out above lead me to believe that cycle low leads to the push to new ATHs.
I think Trump has a few tricks left up his sleeve to try pump the markets going into 2026. Not to mention the Gov should be reopening soon - 2019 cycle.
There is a chance, of course, that the 4 year cycle is no more. The good news is since I'm still bullish, if I see signs that the market indeed plans to continue higher I can remain bullish. This would likely be characterized by a right translation of the weekly cycle (essentially we make new ATHs in like February after this next ideally parabolic leg to new ATHs).
That being said, if the 4 year cycle remains intact, I expect 2026 to be mostly bearish. I don't think we will necessarily see an 80% drawdown in BTC, but I think we will see significantly lower prices.
I also believe 2026 will be a mostly bullish year for the DXY.
Finally, the bearish scenario would be this rally fails to create a new ATH, or a very weak one. And this whole range has been a very sneaky distribution with the top already being in. I think this is relatively low odds but anything is possible.
I'll likely just repeat all this in tonights YouTube.
TLDR, jobs not finished.