US at risk of running out of missiles if another war breaks out. Over the last seven weeks of war, the US has expended at least 45% of its stockpile of Precision Strike Missiles; and at least half of its THAAD missiles edition.cnn.com/2026/04/21/p…

Let me walk you through the events of the war so far: 1. The United States and Israel tried regime change; it didn’t work. Or rather, they got regime change—Iran became an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–led military dictatorship. That was not an improvement. 2. The U.S. won an overwhelming military victory with air and naval power and scarcely a boot on the ground. But it destroyed less of Iran’s missile- and drone-launching capabilities than at first appeared. 3. Then there was a hostage crisis. Iran took both the Gulfies and the Strait of Hormuz hostage. The result was a massive economic shock for the world that required a rapid resolution. 4. The choice was between 1) military escalation (boots on the ground or strikes on Iranian infrastructure), and 2) a diplomatic deal. Trump chose 2. 5. In Islamabad, the U.S proposed big economic concessions in return for some kind of change in the status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, as well as the reopening of the strait. Contrary to the president’s social media feed, the Iranians did not accept. 6. In any case, the devil of any deal will be in the details, not the Truth headline. (When the small print finally comes out, every former Obama and Biden official will be ready to tell The New York Times that it’s worse than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.) 7. Meanwhile, the Iranians have survived regime change and discovered that closing the strait is just as powerful a lever in economic warfare as they had always hoped. It’s not, despite the Russian quip, an “economic nuke,” because unlike a nuclear weapon you can use it. 8. Where we go from here is fairly predictable. I would be surprised if Trump now deploys ground forces. There will be more negotiation, so Islamabad, here we come. There may have to be more bombing, if the Iranians dust down the North Vietnamese playbook of stringing the U.S. negotiators along. And the final compromise will take longer to be agreed upon than Mr. Market currently believes. The consensus in prediction markets is this will be over by the end of May, but remember: It took Henry Kissinger more than four months to get the 1973–1974 oil embargo lifted.

New: The US military has significantly depleted its stockpile of key missiles during war with Iran & created “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition in a future conflict should one arise in next few years, per experts & 3 people familiar w/ recent internal Pentagon assessments. cnn.com/2026/04/21/politics/…

Europe bout to find out what life without 12 weeks of vacation is like

Europeans went from “we want to work with the U.S, to deal with the existential threat of China” to @realDonaldTrump is mean let’s partner with China. Just put a gun to your head why don’t you.

My friend, don't underestimate my contribution to the security of Israel and the United States in the campaign against Iran. Unlike you, I have also practicality operated in the field (even as a major belive it or not) and I am familiar with the limits of power when dealing with Tehran. As I wrote, I understand the frustration well and I’m certainly not angry. One does not judge a person in their moment of distress.I understand the shock that comes with realizing the gap between what is written in a theoretical or your imagined world and what actually happens in reality. It has happened even to those far more experienced than you. That said, to my colleagues who are analysts of the Iranian arena that knows Iran, I say this: this is how total meltdown looks like. Those whose entire professional life focus has been the campaign against Iran, and who are now realizing how flawed their strategy was, are looking scapegoat to blame. If I were in their position, I would be concerned about what comes next, and what they will do the day after, when it becomes clear that their entire professional lives were built on illusions. It’s not an easy, I am sure of that. I wish them all the best, and I would suggest they leave the Iranian analysis arena to true experts before continuing to offer misguided advice. Stay safe Richard. You have my deepest sympathy.

Blocus d'Ormuz. Scénario optimiste : la production iranienne chute. Dans les vingt jours, ils tombent à court de cash. L'économie s'effondre. Le régime est forcé de négocier. Scénario pessimiste : faute de pouvoir exporter son pétrole, l'Iran n'a aucune raison de laisser le détroit ouvert. Téhéran frappe tous les navires qui passent. Cela impacte les marchés de l'énergie, partout, y compris aux Etats-Unis. L'autre question étant : les Etats-Unis vont-ils bloquer les navires de tous les pays ? "Si M. Trump parvient à priver l’Iran de devises fortes et à provoquer une crise économique, tout en limitant l’impact sur les prix du pétrole et les flux de matières premières, en restreignant l’escalade militaire qui s’ensuivrait et en gérant la diplomatie délicate d’un blocus contre le transport maritime international, il pourrait revenir à la table des négociations dans de meilleures conditions. Mais le régime iranien estime avoir remporté la première épreuve de force avec les États-Unis, puisqu’il a survécu à la guerre, conservé ses matières nucléaires et maintenu une emprise ferme sur Ormuz. Il a des raisons de croire qu’il peut à nouveau survivre à M. Trump. « C’est le long terme ou rien », déclare Kevin Rowlands, qui a dirigé le groupe de réflexion de la Royal Navy jusqu’à l’année dernière et qui édite désormais le RUSI Journal, une publication militaire. « On ne met pas en place un blocus pour une semaine. »" Source: The Economist economist.com/middle-east-an…