Largest crude draw in history but it's fine Oil is going to 60s soon because some really aggressive propaganda accounts told me so

API Crude -8.33 million (exp. -4.5 million) Gasoline 2.479 million Distillates -461,000 Cushing -1.523 million SPR actual -8.9 million @JuliOnTwtr

Checking crude price Was it the biggest draw in history? Yes Did it matter? Nope Crude still selling off because that's how it is Anything can trade at any price, money supply can grow to infinity, but oil, the thing we use the most of, can only ever be cheaper

We are seeing significant volatility, and I wanted to share some thoughts about it. You will see some examples today of people wisdom-signaling, as though they have a crystal ball and can predict and forecast the future. They can't, but they will make sure to let you know because they are likely selling a service, and you might think that next time they will tell you the future...but they can't. Market timing is not possible. Secondly, one of my most popular posts on this platform was in the beginning of January earlier this year when Trump took over Venezuela and the narrative was that all of a sudden we don't need Canadian oil and the US doesn't need anything from Canada, despite importing 60% of its oil from Canada and facing Pad 2 logistical challenges when it comes to Venezuela. Despite the initial sell-off, many of the stocks doubled, and many of the names we all follow are up 30%, 50%, and even 100% since then....in some cases before the Iran conflict. Now this story has changed too, because the Trump administration is not stupid and is now forcing companies to invest in Venezuela. Despite the narrative noise you hear from minor-league speculators, this is what I am thinking: we are indeed in one of the biggest energy crises humanity has ever seen. The Trump administration understood it and notice how fast the urgency for a deal materialized, even though the outcome remains to be seen....notice how fast and urgent the messaging flipped and how all of a sudden Trump wants out even if Iran keeps its nukes, toll booths, and $300B in somebody's cash. The oil bulls were right, but Trump is fighting back as he doesn't want this energy crisis as it unfolds, notice the US SPR at a very sad 340 million barrels 1980s level.... Anyhow, expect more volatility. Q2 earnings are going to be amazing; the companies are printing money even here, and as suggested before, whoever invests in this sector needs to focus on low-cost-of-supply producers. Everything will be okay, friends. Shake and bake.🫡🪒

RT @chigrl: Hate to rain on this parade, but they have been selling oil

SILVER - So far, so good 👇

Carlyle's Jeff Currie tells @flacqua that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may not start to normalize until the end of the year bloom.bg/4vkWdQw

Maybe what this is really about is certain people need to see other people bend the knee first Because my rational mind can't explain why the price of oil is what the price of oil is I see that it is, and I see the worst people grave dancing

Housing start plunge: Housing Starts 1177K, Exp. 1430K, Last 1392K Housing Permits 1413K, Exp. 1418K, Last 1423K

$EWW Mexico with one hell of a set up.

Silver measured in barrels of oil. Six month chart. 100 year lid came off and we just tested it.

How does Jeff Currie still have a job?

The world is drowning in oil The oil bros were wrong Could they start to be right at some point? Sure But they were wrong, as WTI reaches $77 USO is about back to the price I went long in March, so count me as one of the schmuks on this one

Just follow the oil roadmap. There's no reason to doubt it as far as I'm concerned x.com/NorthstarCharts/status…

$USO / $DBC #ENERGY People calling for oil to collapse are, in my view, looking at the wrong chart... Oil versus the broad commodity basket has broken a 15–20 year relative downtrend. That is not usually the kind of setup you get before a meaningless multi-month bounce rolls over and dies. This looks more like a secular relative rotation. Yes, oil can correct. Yes, it can backtest. But structurally, this is not bearish... Oil could outperform the broad commodity basket by multiples over the coming years. The crowd is still trading oil like it is going to 50.

Crude Oil washout is getting overdone. Major supports approaching - reversal watch is on: open.substack.com/chat/posts…

Even if Hormuz reopened the oil deficit doesn't care. The IEA projects a supply shortfall through Q4 2026 regardless. A small surplus might appear after that. But rebuilding inventories back to 2025 levels? At least another year from now. The market is pricing in relief. The data isn't giving it. Full analysis and the hidden moves I'm watching in my latest article. Link in the comments 👇

WARREN BUFFETT: “IF YOU INVEST IN A STOCK, YOU MUST BE MENTALLY READY TO WATCH IT DROP 50% OR EVEN MORE — AND STAY CALM THROUGH IT.”

🚨This is Permian Basin year on year production growth. The Permian is the engine of US shale. The most productive oil field in the country. In 2019 it was growing by nearly 1 million barrels per day every year. Today? 350,000 barrels per day. That red line is the trend 📉 It's been pointing down for 7 years straight. The easy barrels are gone, wells are deeper and decline rates are faster. (see exxon pivot in Guyana) ⚠️The US just spent the last month burning through its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cushion the Hormuz shock. Link for the full analysis on oil prices macro. Link in the comments 👇

I don't want to rain on the silver bull parade... But I can't honestly ignore the monthly chart. This is still a problem that needs more time to resolve.