In the coming weeks there will be a lot of focus on forecasts, modelling and predictions for future revenue growth.
In her recent pre-Budget speech,
@RachelReevesMP said "the OBR rightly make their predictions based on the data that has gone before, but I do not believe that our past has to determine our future."
In relation to spirits revenue, the past 25 years tells a clear story. When spirits, like
#ScotchWhisky, are supported through duty freezes and cuts, revenue increases at a faster rate than through RPI, or even RPI , duty increases.
The strongest periods of revenue growth over the past 25 years have been between 1999 and 2007, when a multi-year freeze was implemented by then Chancellor Gordon Brown, and between 2014 and 2022, when duty was stable, giving distillers confidence to invest and grow.
The weakest period of revenue growth has been in the last two years, with spirits revenue flatlining despite a cumulative 14% duty increase.
For spirits revenue, the past should determine the future. The evidence is clear - if
@hmtreasury wants to grow revenue, it should freeze duty on
#ScotchWhisky and other spirits, and give the industry the stability it needs to be an engine of growth.