Market Internals 101:

When people hear about Elon’s trillion dollar fortune, it’s very important they understand that fortune is comprised of things like factories, and rockets, and satellites, and data centers - things that cannot be easily converted into healthcare or food for the homeless

90% of your trading problems will go away if you size down

I spent over two decades as a full time futures trader and scalper, and I learned your edge isn’t just your strategy. It’s your focus. It’s the amount of hyperfocus it takes every single day. Blocking everything out, slowing your heart rate down, staying calm, believing in your homework, executing at a high level. Trading has to be your number one focus each day. So if you’re learning to become a successful trader, here are three things you may be focusing on that are working against you. First, other people’s money. Stop looking at how much everyone else is making. That’s the number one thing you have to look away from. I was around thousands of traders on the floor and I barely remember us talking about money. It was private. The goal was to build a life. It felt blue collar. Today everyone talks about what they make, trying to prove someone wrong about the market. It’s a different place, and a lot harder for a new trader to block the noise out. Second, the access. Overnight used to just be overnight, where you managed a position if you had one. Set time to start, set time to break, set time to come back. We traded mornings, skipped midday, came back for the close. Now the access never stops, and it’s spread everyone’s focus too thin to stay locked in. Third, understanding the market environment. We move between environments at a very rapid rate. We go from trending higher with no signs of a pullback, buy the dip and hold on, straight into sell off mode. Trying to guess what those days will be like going into them is very difficult. You have to stay open minded and understand how quickly the tape can change. Last Friday was the perfect example. A market runs higher a lot further than most thought, then unravels all at once. It’s the same psychology we see in traders. They stay in their own trend for only so long, then unravel all at once. If you’re not focused, or you’re clinging too hard to one market environment as you move into the next, you aren’t allowing things to be what they are. You’re fighting them for what they were. So here’s the simple part. Slow everything down. Survive a game where you pay your bills and stay in long enough to make a living. There will be moments this business really pays you, and you won’t choose them. They choose you. The rest is grinding, surviving, enjoying the process. Arguing with people on social media is a time waster, and the people who do it are usually unhappy in their own lives. Spend your time wisely. Focus is the whole game. Protect it like your account depends on it, because it does. Enjoy your life. Have fun. This is the greatest business in the world if you let it be. And it’ll be the worst, and destroy your life, if you let it. Cheers, DELI

I keep seeing a pattern in trading psychology advice: some successful traders, and some just loud ones, reverse-engineer their own nervous system. “I prep, I'm calm → anxiety means you didn't prep properly." They miss the real edge: baseline neurobiology. A regulated nervous system, a wide window of tolerance, secure attachment, and resilient stress response. These invisible substrates carry performance, not the visible routines. The successful ones take their preparation and discipline for granted, attributing success to these factors. The loud ones are pattern-matching from chaos, packaging hope as expertise. For anxious‑attached perfectionists, hearing "just do what I do" adds another "should" to the system, often creating shame loops, anxiety, and self‑doubt. Most high performers don't even understand why they work; they see the visible prep, discipline, or routines, but miss the invisible neurobiology that carries them. The pattern to watch for: anyone telling you their visible routines will fix your invisible wiring. If advice makes you feel more anxious or ashamed, that's data not about your discipline, but about the mismatch between their system and yours. Your baseline neurobiology cannot be altered through willpower. The question isn't "what should I do?" but "what does my nervous system need to come back online?" That's the work.

Clear the air My view on $MSTR I own BTC via $IBIT since 69420 At a small allocation of my wealth. I prefer gold I have been bearish MNAV of $MSTR since 11/20/2024. The MNAV has fallen massively and now rests at 1.09. That is NOT ridiculously rich at all. However the company is pursuing a strategy which will likely keep pressure on MNAV going forward. That pressure is offering $STRC at a decent size discount to fair value. By selling STRC at par particularly like today when it is full to the brim with dividends the company is selling this security at a 1-3% discount to fair value. Honestly that's not a bad thing for the company to do given the modest discount to fair value and the high proceeds they are taking in. BUT it does harm the common shareholders in two ways. 1. The discount itself is paid by the common shareholders to the preferred holders and 2. The preferred dividend (given that BTC/the companies asset pays no yield) represents forward issuance or forward BTC sales which are bad for the company's shareholders You may notice I've repeatedly said that the company is selling STRC at a discount. That explicitly means that the investor in STRC is getting to buy something cheap!!!! As an investor you have to like STRC. It's cheap! I am not a bear on STRC. I simply don't like it vs what it does to the common shareholders. My view on STRC is it is highly likely to generate pretty nice returns if BTC doesn't get crushed. Its risk is simple. BTC gets crushed and issuance liquidity for MSTR in all its forms falls and BTC sales become necessary to pay dividends. Fwiw that seems well prepared for given the fiat cash reserves the company has built up. So STRC is pretty sweet as a thing with probably 200bp per year of excess dividends vs fair with a substantial but unlikely left tail risk. BUT it's not good for shareholder MNAV Let's jump into MNAV dynamics. 1.09X is not that interesting as a short AT ALL. As long as the company has access to preferreds issaunce even at this 1-3% discount it can avoid issuing common shares or manage to issue just a bit. There are literally NO arbs short MSTR long BTC today at current prices and no downward pressure likely from new arbs going short. Why would they at 1.09? Could frustrated BTC investors with long equity positions in US equities (NDX) also sell their long MSTR such that it would go to an MNAV discount ? Sure. But with BTC anywhere within 40,000 of current spot the company has infinite flexibility to manage its issuance such that it won't trade at a sizable MNAV discount for much time. For instance let's say it traded at a .9MNAV while STRC traded at par. That would be the best arb of all time. Saylor could sell STRC and buy $MSTR back Basically with BTC doing fine my picture of the company is a slow convergence to MNAV of 1.0 and ongoing STRC chilling at par. The elephant in the room is the true believers in the common shares who still truly believe that the MNAV can massively expand back to its former glory or 2 . That time has past. Saylor will sell infinite shares at 1.5 if he has the ability to. And there is essentially infinite capital to do the short MSTR long BTC arb at levels like that. The MNAV expansion is a delusion built on meme stock experience where "the faithful" can stick it to "the man". STRC and the growing dividend expense makes the arb even more attractive than ever. Anyway that's where I stand.

You must value learning above everything else.

rate cuts assured actually, no cuts actually hikes now

The Thomas Massie primary is truly insane. We are looking at the most expensive U.S. House primary in history, with spending pushing toward $35 million. Massie's opponent, Ed Gallrein, has raised just $2 million on his own. The rest of the money, over $14 million, is coming from outside Super PACs who desperately want Massie gone. On top of that, Pete Hegseth is being deployed to Kentucky to campaign against him. Stephen Miller & Con Inc. have been on massive Twitter tirades attacking him. And there was a highly coordinated smear campaign of unfounded allegations launched this week by Con Inc. influencers. When the establishment is willing to spend $35M and go to these lengths to take one man down, it really makes you wonder why. Whether you like Massie or not, this election will determine whether or not we as voters actually have a voice anymore. If outside special-interest money can successfully buy a seat and sway an election like this, we have a serious, serious problem.

The only constant is change. Embrace this.

I sent this to my 18-year old daughter this morning. Your words become your thoughts Your thoughts become your actions Your actions become your habits Your habits become your values Your values become your life and your destiny

You sit there for hours. No trades. No setups. Nothing to do. It feels like wasted time. But it’s not. That’s the work. Most traders just don’t have the patience to do it.

Just win 🧱by🧱

The gap between where you are and where you want to be is just how badly you underestimate how good it’s going to get.

My handle/business name was based on the model below Today The size of the market/economy M is extremely large K is super "springy" C is as dampening as I have ever seen in "normal" economic conditions X "bumps" are more impactful than normal as geopolitical and technological disruption AND distrust of data add more impactful surprises This system is as fragile and overdamped as I have ever seen since developing this idea 35 years ago

“I don't know why people expect art to make sense. They accept the fact that life doesn't make sense.” ― David Lynch

My Trading Manifesto: Embrace risk. Accomplishment and fulfillment in any endeavor requires facing the unknown head on, placing your bet, and accepting the consequence. You can't control what cards life deals, but you can control when to shove your chips in the middle. Focus on that part. Bet size matters too. Balance your aggression. Size relative to the opportunity. Study each situation with as little ego as possible. Prioritize truth over preconceived notions. Many an "expert" has been taken out to the woodshed because they couldn't let go of their grand theory. Don't hesitate to build your understanding of things from the ground up again and again. That keeps you closer to the truth and further from outdated or tainted knowledge. Hold feedback in high value. Use feedback as a compass to adjust strategy and make a better bet on the next try. There's nothing more valuable than ex-post information. It's the primary tool of improvement. It's how you move from a poor risk-taker to an exceptional risk-taker. It's how you develop killer instinct. Again, keep ego out of the process. If contradictory evidence comes back, don't dismiss it. Update your views and approach. The desire to "be right" must never overpower the objective search for truth and results. Finally, keep self-preservation top of mind. Earn the right to bet big as your knowledge progresses, but only to a limit. Never put yourself in a situation where a negative outcome means complete destruction. Preserve your seat in the game. Without a seat at the table, killer instinct will decay. You will experience exhilarating wins and bone crushing defeats regardless. No amount of preparation or strategy can eliminate uncertainty, so hold your head high in the tough times and remain humble in victory. Luck's a fickle beast after all…

If you're tired of being one of the "slow kids in the back row" who panic, try getting a plan. It leads to a "Nice call." Subscribe: pinebrookcap.com/subscribe 🙏x:fusionmacro x.com/fusionmacro/status/178…

People realizing 12 S&P stocks made new 52 week highs yesterday

Having loser mentality is an insult to God because you were handed a singular unrepeatable flame of consciousness as a specific individual with specific gifts and chose to let it gutter out in self-pity. Feeling small is more ingratitude than humility The creator doesn’t make surplus people. The fact that the egg chooses the sperm means every cell in your body proliferated from a messianic selection. The loser mentality is on every level, (biologically, metaphysically, theologically, etc.) against the verdict of life