I've initiated positions in
$CPSH as a US AlSiC pure play chokepoint.
They represent ~25% of the near-term semi-grade AlSiC market.
Their customers:
- U.S. Navy (War)
- U.S. Army (War)
- U.S. Dept. of Energy (Energy / Nuclear)
- U.S. Space Force / NASA (Space)
- Lockheed Martin (
$LMT )
- Raytheon (
$RTX )
- Northrop Grumman
- General Dynamics
- The U.S. Navy uses
$CPSH for ballistic protection systems of the newest carriers (like the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln). As well as other fleets like the Danish Navy through Lockheed.
- US Army uses
$CPSH for 40mm Tungsten Warheads and UH-60 Black Hawk Helicopters.
- The US Dpt of Energy uses
$CPSH for impact limiters when transferring nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste via rail.
- U.S. Space Force / NASA uses
$CPSH for GPS satellites and it sits in many electronic systems in the International Space Station. (Also not including Mars Rover missions)
- Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, and General Dynamics uses
$CPSH for missile heat-shielding components. AlSiC housings for radar systems, and thermal management materials.
AlSiC or (aluminum silicon carbide) is a well known material composite that handles extreme thermal conditions for many applications above from space to defense.
But as architectures from
$NVDA Rubin to scale up to 2300-2500W in 2027-2028, that same material may be used AI due to heat warpage.
My thoughts were that the tiny TAM material used to handle extreme changes in heat from hypersonic missiles to rocket nose cones may likely be used for AI deployments.
This is similar to how InP (niche TAM for Telecom) became a bottleneck as photonics scaled up. Or how Toto's fine ceramics for toilets were critical to memory.
AlSiC (esp. post-processing) may become a potential chokepoint as AI ramps up to Rubin generation chips.
Majority of the world's AlSiC production still originates in East Asia (Denka,Sumitomo, BYD, JFC).
But CPS is currently the primary "US/Western hedge" and CPSH states they represent roughly 25% of the near-term available AlSiC market (CPS Technologies AGM Presentation).
And that percentage of the supply chain is only worth ~$100 MC right now.
Their balance sheet:
$12.7M – $13.8M (pro-forma) cash. Almost 0 debt. Inventory ~5.4M, Liabilities: ~$5.06M (eg. $3.53M for aluminum and silicon carbide)
Y/Y revenue is 8.8M, up 107.29%.
Y/Y Net income is up 207.96K ( 119.94%).
Healthy balance sheet and US Government strategic interest Defense Contractors gives
$CPSH low downside risk at $100M or even at $200M as the leading Western AlSiC supply chain.
There were new contracts eg. $15.5M order from the leading Semi likely ~Infineon last October, that more visibility into revenue upside. And they are expanding production (funded by their Oct 25th raise), which hints to higher demand.
"We believe we are the world leader in the design and manufacture of AlSiC... Many of our products are designed specifically for a single customer application, making us the sole-source provider for those components." (10-K filings)
TLDR: The AI upside depends entirely on a material pivot by big tech. Similar to the Toto toilet maker for memory type but the AI fit seems strong.
But the benefit is that its existing list of US DoD contractors gives the company lower downside risk.
This is just my own personal thesis I wanted to share.
But personally I've taken positions in
$CPSH as an AlSiC play (and long US supply chains) as it may play an important role with thermal warpage with AI in 2027-2028 as we expand to 2000W .