My critique:
1) National housing policy secretariat.
I’m skeptical. These kinds of large bureaucratic coordination mechanisms seldom work. The problem is that you can’t “force” the market to build. Builders build when they see a profit. The challenge we face is that when the population was surging, builders bought a lot of land at an inflated price and now that prices have dropped, their projects are no longer profitable. They are land banking. High land costs take a long time to unwind.
2) Annual federal housing starts broken down by unit type.
Does the setting of targets actually do anything? We do not have a command and control economy. If builders still face high land costs, regulatory red tape, or unprofitable market conditions, how does this help. Wouldn’t it be better to focus on incentive structures and price dynamics rather than nominal targets?
3) New ACLP loan stream for small builders.
Maybe. Access to capital for small builders might improve liquidity, how will this impact affordability. It is the fundamentals — land pricing, developer incentives, and market demand — that drives price.
4) Lower new home prices by removing interest costs, junk fees, and taxes.
The market price is the market price regardless of the inputs. These actions might make it more profitable for developers — incentivizing them to build — but it does not mean they will sell at a lower price.
5) Federal down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers
We’ve seen this play before. Buyer subsidies only serve to drive up prices unless they are coupled with supply structures that change market fundamentals (e.g., strong public housing provision). Without that, assisting buyers merely bumps up purchasing power against persistent pricing pressures.
6) Index Home Buyers’ Plan & FHSA to inflation
Again, this just boosts buyer demand without impacting affordability. It could even exacerbate price pressures if the market doesn’t expand supply in a sustainable, way.
7) Expand GST/HST new housing rebate
This might reduce costs in part, but house price will simply create a higher equilibrium. It has to be tied to structural change in how housing investment returns are realized.
8) Federal strategy for seniors’ housing to unlock large homes.
Older Canadians are not going to move out of their larger homes unless there is a clear financial value in doing so. The transfer costs, including new refurnishing, are often more than if they stay put.
9) MURB tax provision consultations for rental construction
Capital markets favour resale value increases. It’s hard to see tax incentives channelling investor dollars. Investor behaviour is driven by expected returns. Tax incentives must be designed carefully — not just to reduce costs but to change investment dynamics.
10) Incentives for investors to sell to non-investors and reinvest
Why would non-investors do this? Investors can still realize strong price appreciation through other housing assets.