Being bearish is always cosmopolitan, and Marxism is about as sexy of an AI bear case as you can get. Framing generational technology as an economic crisis is exactly that (h/t
@HajarnisMohit below). Fixed pie… Zero-sum… Capital wins… labor loses… no mechanism for reallocation (AOC has some ideas?). Ask yourself: does the extreme bull scenario get 100K views this weekend?
Subscribing to this view requires you to believe that it is bearish, in the most dynamic and risk taking economy in history, that knowledge is becoming ubiquitous and startup costs are falling. It sounds to me more like ‘go time’. Competition is about to explode and feed *creative destruction*, and society and consumers win in that environment in case you didn’t remember (Hi capitalism! Missed you). The bear case also rests on a labor theory of value: your worth = your time, and when the AI god machine replicates your time, you’re worthless. NO THANK YOU. As I used to say trading credit OTC back in the day… SOLD TO YOU.
Let’s make it concrete. Is it bearish for the overall economy that seat based SAAS models (unused gym memberships?) are moving to outcome-based pricing? The Age of Agentware sounds like pay for performance, a welcome concept, and inherently more productive. That saved money is freed capital that gets re allocated to R&D, expansion, or totally new unforeseen industries (hey, nobody thought we’d be here, right?). And if it is instead returned to shareholders, great, then they’ll redistribute the capital just the same.
Now, add in the macro. AI is very obviously disinflationary. The ‘shadow output gap’ is widening, which means every unit of growth creates a bit less inflation than it used to. That argues for structurally lower rates and pulls the cost of capital down (another boost to competition!). So while legacy rent holders may feel some pain, competition and consumers will thrive.
Call me crazy, but this all sounds pretty American to me.
One of the often slept-upon benefits of attending the University of Chicago is that they make you read Marx as part of the core curriculum, which is why this article gave me flashbacks of taking SOSC 114 as a freshman.
Marx, writing during the Industrial Revolution, predicted capitalism would periodically devour itself: firms replace labor with machinery to boost profits, but competition diffuses the technology, drives prices to marginal cost, and the gains get competed away. Meanwhile, displaced workers lose purchasing power, hollowing out the demand the whole system depends on. Production rises but no one can afford to buy what's produced - the contradiction between production and realization.
Citrini's piece describes this exact dynamic, then declares there's "no natural brake." It's the most Marxist piece of financial analysis written in years, and makes the same errors Marx did.
Schumpeter offered the obvious rebuttal 80 years ago: creative destruction doesn't just destroy, it creates industries we can't yet conceive of. Everyone in the replies is already making this point, and I think they're right.
But the sharper rebuttal is Hayek's: prices are the brake Citrini says doesn't exist. Who funds $200bn / qtr in AI capex when equities are down 38%, private credit marks are in the 50s, and consumer demand has collapsed? Cost of capital rises. Incremental build-out becomes uneconomical. Capital gets destroyed and reallocated.
Citrini also unknowingly describes Marx's proletarianization of the petite bourgeoisie: the $180k PM driving Uber is textbook. But the article claims this collapses consumer demand, and that's where it breaks.
The top decile drives 50% of spending and their wealth is in equities, not W-2 income; they're long the hyperscalers posting records in Citrini's own model. Blue collar is insulated because AI replaces cognitive labor, not physical.
The professional middle class gets crushed, but aggregate demand doesn't.
The spending class IS the capital-owning class. The K-shaped recovery they fear actually stabilizes the demand base they say is collapsing. In the stable aggregate demand, the petit bourgeoisie finds ways to reinvent itself.
I think the Citrini piece is excellent and worth reading. But history has repeatedly shown that periods of transformative productivity gains ultimately accrue to the consumer through lower prices, more leisure, and higher quality of life. Marx's error wasn't diagnosing the disruption, it was underestimating the system's ability to adapt.