Why do women outlive men by 12 years in some countries but only 2 in others? @AllenDowney breaks it down with Bayesian counterfactual modeling, live at @_odsc East, April 30. #ODSC2026 #PyMC #BayesianStats

The Bayesian model estimates each team's true strength three inputs: - Run differential - Modeled win probability (xWins) - Actual win/loss result 2025 season data sets the baseline (ie prior), then 2026 results update it. I simulate all remaining games 50,000 times drawing each team's strength from the posterior distribution. Currently the model is still mostly informed by 2025 data. Updated daily: dtw-str.streamlit.app/Playof… #Probabilities #BayesianStats

Interested in #BayesianStats? Check out this new Element in our quant methods series by Jeff Gill and Le Bao. It's free online for a limited time, grab a copy today! @CUP_PoliSci 1/2 cambridge.org/core/elements/…

Thank you for sharing! Indeed! The FDA`s long-awaited guidance on "Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical Trials of Drug and Biological Products" will be a game-changer for biostatistics and drug development! It should and will open doors to smarter, more efficient trials. The success of adopting Bayesian methodology will depend on educational measures during graduate and postgraduate studies to build foundational expertise, along with other key factors such as regulatory clarity and acceptance, accessible software and computational tools, overcoming traditional frequentist biases, and strong collaboration among statisticians, clinicians, and regulators. Can't wait to dive deeper and see how it accelerates innovation. What are your thoughts, @f2harrell? #FDA #BayesianStats #ClinicalTrials

As part of my Bayesian linear regression lecture, I introduce Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from posterior distributions of model parameters. We start with the Gibbs sampler — by sampling from accessible conditional distributions, we can approximate an otherwise inaccessible joint distribution! 🔁📊 To demonstrate this, I built an interactive #Python dashboard using @matplotlib. Check it out on #GitHub, 🔗 github.com/GeostatsGuy/DataS… ∀. #BayesianStats #MCMC #GibbsSampler #DataScience #Matplotlib #Jupyter #OpenSource #Statistics

Market share predictions fail when models ignore how markets really work. At @pydataberlin , @forde_nathaniel shows how PyMC Marketing’s new Consumer Choice module uses Bayesian models for realistic substitution. 🗓️ Sept 1, 4:20 PM | 📍 Room B05-B06 #BayesianStats #PyMC

📣 There's still time to register for SISBayes 2025! 📅 September 4–5, 2025 📍 University of Padua, Italy (@UniPadova) 💸 Junior fee: only €70! 🔗 Details & registration: sisbayes2025.stat.unipd.it/ #Bayes2025 #BayesianStats #SIS #ySIS #StatConference

🤔 Curious about real-time ML? 💬 Drop a 🔄 below if you'd like a follow-up tutorial 🔁 Retweet this to help others explore smarter testing 📌 Follow @shreycapital for more intuitive technical data science content #DataScience #ML #BanditAlgorithms #ABTesting #ExperimentDesign #ReinforcementLearning #BayesianStats

🎯 Want to build a rock-solid foundation in Mathematics & Statistics for Trading? Here’s a curated list of insightful blog resources that can enhance your understanding of essential concepts: 🔍 Key Concepts & Applications ✅ Statistical Thinking – Covers statistical reasoning for data interpretation. blog.quantinsti.com/statisti… ✅ Introduction to Bayesian Statistics in Finance – Explains how Bayesian approaches work in financial modelling. blog.quantinsti.com/introduc… ✅ Hurst Exponent – Describes the concept of long-term memory in time series data. blog.quantinsti.com/hurst-ex… ✅ Market Inefficiency – Discusses deviations from efficient market assumptions. blog.quantinsti.com/market-i… ✅ Bayesian Inference – Explores Bayesian methods for updating beliefs based on new data. blog.quantinsti.com/bayesian… ✅ Central Limit Theorem – Explains how sample means converge to a normal distribution. blog.quantinsti.com/central-… ✅ Standard Deviation – Covers the calculation of dispersion around the mean. blog.quantinsti.com/standard… ✅ Linear Regression: Assumptions & Limitations – Outlines the assumptions of linear models and potential issues. blog.quantinsti.com/linear-r… ✅ Time Series Analysis – Introduces methods for analysing data points collected over time. blog.quantinsti.com/time-ser… ✅ Probability Distributions – Discusses types of distributions and their applications in modelling. blog.quantinsti.com/statisti… ✅ Pairs Trading Basics – Provides an overview of trading strategies involving paired securities. blog.quantinsti.com/pairs-tr… 🚀 These blogs cover various topics related to statistics and mathematics for trading. 💡 Which one will you start with today? Drop your pick in the comments! 👇 #MathForTrading #StatisticsForFinance #QuantitativeFinance #ProbabilityInTrading #BayesianStats #TimeSeriesAnalysis

Learn how this new Econometrica paper uses Bayesian methods to study a Colombian export program. Learn how prior knowledge can make experiments more insightful for policymakers & firms. Take a look: econometricsociety.org/publi… #Economics #BayesianStats

Jom explore Adaptive Clinical Trials by @Ecraid — where science meets smart! Learn how Bayesian magic updates probabilities as data flows, discover when to hit pause with stopping rules, and get the scoop on posterior probabilities. #ClinicalTrials #BayesianStats

Advanced course: Introduction to Bayesian Statistics and Hierarchical Modelling in R | June 11–13, 2025 ✅ Hierarchical modelling ✅ Practical sessions using R and JAGS 🗓️ Deadline: 9 April More info: cibio.up.pt/en/events/introd… #BayesianStats #RStats #Ecology #HierarchicalModels

Bayes' Theorem updates beliefs with new evidence using prior probability, likelihood, and posterior probability. Learn its role in decision-making and modeling statisticalaid.com/bayes-the… #BayesianStats #DataScience

🚀 The 3rd edition of Bayesian Data Analysis in R is underway! A great chance to learn Bayes from Prof. @meanwhileina (Uni Tübingen) through hands-on exercises and real-world applications—building confidence in Bayesian regression models. 🔥📊 #BayesianStats #RStats

Ifá divination isn’t just spirituality—it’s Bayesian inference meets Markov chains. 🔮 Each cast updates beliefs (Bayes), and the next step depends only on the present state (Markov). Sounds like AI reasoning? Yoruba wisdom was ahead all along. 🤯 😎 #Ifa #AI #BayesianStats

Don't forget to submit your abstract for BAYSM 2025 baysm2025.github.io/ happening online April 7–11, 2025! 📅 The deadline for abstract submissions is *January 15, 2025*. Don't miss out! #BAYSM2025 #BayesianStats #CallForAbstracts @ISBA_events

Frequentists treat the null hypothesis like Schrödinger’s cat—alive or dead. Bayesians know it’s just a probability distribution. #BayesianStats #Frequentists

🚨🚨 New working paper 🚨🚨 "Rounding the (Non)Bayesian Curve: Unraveling the Effects of Rounding Errors in Belief Updating" with Yaroslav Rosokha papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… #TeachBE #Beliefs #BayesianUpdating #BayesianStats #Rounding #Experiments a thread ...

At the point where I think I just write, "One advantage of #Bayesian approaches is that they are very fancy" in my discussion #AcWri #AcademicChatter #AcademicTwitter #PhdChat #BayesianStats #stats

Don't miss out on the opportunity to learn Bayesian Analysis from the best! 🧑‍🏫 Our course offers a practical and accessible introduction to Bayesian methods using Stan. Register today 👉 ow.ly/HoHl50SyIwS #BayesianStats #Stan