Crashtests of the cybercab have been spotted yesterday. So how long till they start production of cybercab? Let's dive in 🧵🚕
Historic timelines between crashtests & production
Model 3:
~ 6 - 8 months. From crashtesting to pilot production following volume production. There were delays in the production due to serveral bottlenecks and regulatory reasons. The period of ramping up model 3 is often called 'production hell' by Elon Musk.
Model Y:
~ 18 - 20 months. From crashtesting to pilot production following volume production. There were massive delays due to Covid-related issues. Mostly issues with the supply chain.
Cybertruck:
~ 2 months. From crashtesting to pilot production following volume production. This was a pretty fast timeline. Tesla was able to share some key elements, like the 4680 battery pack form the model Y platform. They also did some pre-crash testing at Fremont, before crashtesting was publicly sighted. This allowed Tesla to get the regulatory issues out of the way pretty quick.
What to expect for the Cybercab
If everything goes really smooth, including regulatory issues, we could see pilot production starting in December and volume production in early January. Though we must realise that they are using a whole new manufacturing method (unboxed) & this car doesn't have a steering wheel, mirrors or pedals. This might lead to some regulatory issues, so we could still see a gap of ~ 6 months, like happend with the model 3.
Conclusion
In conclusion there are 3 scenarios IMO:
Bull: ~2-3 months, No production / supply chain / regulatory issues
Base: ~4-5 months, Some issues with adjusting the new manufacturing method and or regulatory issues.
Bear: ~6-8 months, a lot of issues concerning the new manufacturing method, regulatory issues & even some supply chain issues.
This is just my indication; ofcourse I'm no manufacturing expert. I'm just trying to estimate a timeline based on historic events.
What do you guys think?
$tsla