Two extreme views dominate the DTC discussion for
$ASTS:
Either “literally no one will use it”
or “everyone will use it and service will be crappy”.
So, I decided to actually model the **** out of this question.
I built a bottom-up model for the Continental US market combining
population density data (LandScan)
dynamic leisure population redistribution (OIS, NHSA)
FCC coverage (4G LTE)
Monte Carlo simulations across 2,000 satellite beams
in order to estimate real-world Block 2 satellite load.
Result on a busy weekend: One satellite can comfortably serve 8,000 concurrently active users which covers 90 % of simulated scenarios.
TL;DR
Again, Abel has thought of everything. Block 2 is well-positioned to capture the early market opportunity.
Full write-up with lots of pictures →
open.substack.com/pub/rspbry…
#ASTS