Kevin Warsh's view is clear: AI will eventually force interest rates lower because it will be highly deflationary. "AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We're at the front end of a productivity boom." The problem is that today's economy is telling a different story. Inflation is at 4.2%, its highest level in three years. Tensions with Iran continue to threaten oil supplies. The labor market remains strong. AI may be deflationary in the long run, but the Fed has to deal with today's inflation first. I don't expect a single rate cut before the end of 2026.

Aontú is calling on the gov to opt out of EU Migration Pact. Our petition is approaching 7,000 signatures. We have submitted a Bill to the Bills Office in the Dáil today demanding that Ireland is removed from the EU Migration Pact. aontu.ie/stop-the-eu-migrati…

Following is an article I have written on the EU migration pact and why Ireland should not go ahead with it. We have three days left to stop it so rather than submit to a newspaper to see if they might publish it, I'm posting it right here. There is no time to lose and the attempted beheading in Belfast last night must be a wake up alarm: 'We Were Right About the Lisbon Treaty Opt-Outs, The EU Migration Pact Proves It': As the EU’s Migration and Asylum Pact comes into force in just three days’ time, Ireland finds itself locked into a system we never needed to join. We had a cast-iron opt-out under Protocol 21 of the Lisbon Treaty, the very safeguard the “Yes” side swore would protect our sovereignty over justice and home affairs. Yet our government chose to opt in. The result? A predictable erosion of control at the worst possible time. Back in 2008 and 2009, when Libertas led the No campaign, we warned that the Lisbon Treaty was a power grab dressed up as reform. We were told the opt-outs on immigration, asylum and borders were unbreakable. “Ireland decides,” they said. “Nothing changes without our consent.” The guarantees secured after the first referendum were sold to the Irish people as ironclad in order to get a 'Yes' in the re-run. History has now delivered the verdict: the guarantees were a mirage. Protocol 21 exists precisely because Ireland is not in Schengen, maintains the Common Travel Area with the UK, and has every right to manage our own borders as an island nation. It gave us the flexibility to opt into measures that suited us and stay out of those that did not. That à la carte approach served Ireland well for decades. Then, in June 2024, the Dáil voted, by the narrowest of margins, to surrender it. We're now bound by Brussels’ rules on asylum processing, biometric tracking, returns and mandatory “solidarity” contributions, protection money by another name. This was never necessary. Denmark has used its parallel opt-out far more robustly. We could have done the same. Instead, we have handed decision making on who enters Ireland, how claims are processed and what burdens we must carry to unelected officials in Brussels, officials who designed this Pact for Mediterranean frontline states, not for Ireland's unique geography or our acute housing and services crisis. The Pact itself is, to put it plainly, a mass of fraud. Asylum laws across Europe do not work. Grant rates remain high for many nationalities, appeals drag on, returns are pitifully low. The “mandatory but flexible” solidarity mechanism is neither mandatory enough to deter abuse nor flexible enough to protect smaller states like ours. It will not fix the pull factors that drive irregular migration; it will entrench them. And the most vulnerable of all, those genuine refugees with a real and present risk to life, will be the ones pushed to the back of the queue behind the long line of economic migrants and system-gamers. As if to slice the point home, last night in north Belfast a Sudanese national in his 30s, who reportedly entered the Common Travel Area from Paris via Dublin in 2023, claimed asylum and was granted leave to remain, apparently straddled a local man on a public street and tried to saw his head off with a knife. The victim, now fighting for his life with horrific wounds to his face, neck and back, was saved only by the bravery of passers-by. This is not abstract policy failure. This is the human cost of a migration regime that has lost control. Ireland is already struggling with record international protection applications, a homelessness emergency and stretched public services. Opting in adds annual costs, whether in relocations or cash payments and procedural straitjackets that undemocratically tie the hands of future governments. We have ceded the ability to design a faster, stricter, fairer national system tailored to our needs. This is exactly what we warned would happen when we opposed Lisbon. Sovereignty is not something you lend to Brussels on the promise it will be returned when inconvenient. Once surrendered, it is gone. The politicians who assured us the opt-outs were secure have been proved wrong. The Irish people, who twice expressed deep unease at the direction and form of European integration, have been proved right. It is not too late but the clock is now at three days. Ireland should demand the immediate restoration of our full national control over migration policy before the Pact locks us in on the 12th of June. We owe it to our citizens, to our most vulnerable, and to the genuine refugees the system is failing. The Lisbon opt-outs were meant to protect us. It is time our leaders remembered why we fought so hard to keep them and why we must now use them.

Following is an article I have written on the EU migration pact and why Ireland should not go ahead with it. We have three days left to stop it so rather than submit to a newspaper to see if they might publish it, I'm posting it right here. There is no time to lose and the attempted beheading in Belfast last night must be a wake up alarm: 'We Were Right About the Lisbon Treaty Opt-Outs, The EU Migration Pact Proves It': As the EU’s Migration and Asylum Pact comes into force in just three days’ time, Ireland finds itself locked into a system we never needed to join. We had a cast-iron opt-out under Protocol 21 of the Lisbon Treaty, the very safeguard the “Yes” side swore would protect our sovereignty over justice and home affairs. Yet our government chose to opt in. The result? A predictable erosion of control at the worst possible time. Back in 2008 and 2009, when Libertas led the No campaign, we warned that the Lisbon Treaty was a power grab dressed up as reform. We were told the opt-outs on immigration, asylum and borders were unbreakable. “Ireland decides,” they said. “Nothing changes without our consent.” The guarantees secured after the first referendum were sold to the Irish people as ironclad in order to get a 'Yes' in the re-run. History has now delivered the verdict: the guarantees were a mirage. Protocol 21 exists precisely because Ireland is not in Schengen, maintains the Common Travel Area with the UK, and has every right to manage our own borders as an island nation. It gave us the flexibility to opt into measures that suited us and stay out of those that did not. That à la carte approach served Ireland well for decades. Then, in June 2024, the Dáil voted, by the narrowest of margins, to surrender it. We're now bound by Brussels’ rules on asylum processing, biometric tracking, returns and mandatory “solidarity” contributions, protection money by another name. This was never necessary. Denmark has used its parallel opt-out far more robustly. We could have done the same. Instead, we have handed decision making on who enters Ireland, how claims are processed and what burdens we must carry to unelected officials in Brussels, officials who designed this Pact for Mediterranean frontline states, not for Ireland's unique geography or our acute housing and services crisis. The Pact itself is, to put it plainly, a mass of fraud. Asylum laws across Europe do not work. Grant rates remain high for many nationalities, appeals drag on, returns are pitifully low. The “mandatory but flexible” solidarity mechanism is neither mandatory enough to deter abuse nor flexible enough to protect smaller states like ours. It will not fix the pull factors that drive irregular migration; it will entrench them. And the most vulnerable of all, those genuine refugees with a real and present risk to life, will be the ones pushed to the back of the queue behind the long line of economic migrants and system-gamers. As if to slice the point home, last night in north Belfast a Sudanese national in his 30s, who reportedly entered the Common Travel Area from Paris via Dublin in 2023, claimed asylum and was granted leave to remain, apparently straddled a local man on a public street and tried to saw his head off with a knife. The victim, now fighting for his life with horrific wounds to his face, neck and back, was saved only by the bravery of passers-by. This is not abstract policy failure. This is the human cost of a migration regime that has lost control. Ireland is already struggling with record international protection applications, a homelessness emergency and stretched public services. Opting in adds annual costs, whether in relocations or cash payments and procedural straitjackets that undemocratically tie the hands of future governments. We have ceded the ability to design a faster, stricter, fairer national system tailored to our needs. This is exactly what we warned would happen when we opposed Lisbon. Sovereignty is not something you lend to Brussels on the promise it will be returned when inconvenient. Once surrendered, it is gone. The politicians who assured us the opt-outs were secure have been proved wrong. The Irish people, who twice expressed deep unease at the direction and form of European integration, have been proved right. It is not too late but the clock is now at three days. Ireland should demand the immediate restoration of our full national control over migration policy before the Pact locks us in on the 12th of June. We owe it to our citizens, to our most vulnerable, and to the genuine refugees the system is failing. The Lisbon opt-outs were meant to protect us. It is time our leaders remembered why we fought so hard to keep them and why we must now use them.

We must #OptOut of the #EUMigrationPact Contact all government TDs & Senators. Read this ▶️ bit.ly/4aoYPCm We can't let this happen to our country or our young adults. They have no hope of leaving that box room. This must be stopped.

New immigration strategy ‘must benefit Irish people’, ministers told independent.ie/irish-news/ne…