Good morning,
@SenAdamSchiff.
Meteorologist here. ⛈️
Hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are nothing new. They are also not becoming more frequent or extreme in most cases.
You are making stuff up, as usual.
Here are the facts:
🌀 𝐇𝐔𝐑𝐑𝐈𝐂𝐀𝐍𝐄𝐒 🌀
First, let's define some useful terms.
A tropical cyclone (TC) is a warm-core, non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclone that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has both organized, deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation that rotates about a well-defined center.
Hurricanes (HUs) are a subset of TCs which have a maximum sustained wind speed (Vₘₐₓ) of ≥74 mph. A typhoon is the same thing, but is a name exclusively reserved for HUs in the West Pacific Ocean basin. To be classified as a major hurricane (MH), Vₘₐₓ must be ≥111 mph.
🔗
nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtm…
HU seasons are typically rated by the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index. Developed by Dr. William Gray, this metric takes into account both HU Vₘₐₓ and duration. Specifically, it sums the square of each TC's Vₘₐₓ every six-hour period:
𝐴𝐶𝐸 = 10⁻⁴ Σ 𝑣²ₘₐₓ (for Vₘₐₓ ≥39 mph, tropical storm requirement)
🔗
tropical.colostate.edu/Forec…
🔗
journals.ametsoc.org/view/jo…
With that out of the way, let's take a look to see what the data says on observed trends in TCs.
Prior to the satellite era (1966-present), comprehensive records of TC activity at a global scale are essentially nonexistent. If a storm did not landfall in a populated area or pass by the ship-based “observation network of opportunity,” it was missed and unaccounted for.
Satellite monitoring of TCs began in 1966 with NASA's launch of ESSA-1 and ESSA-2. 🛰️
🔗
gri.msstate.edu/publications…
But, it wasn't until 1980 that we finally had sufficient coverage across both hemispheres. Prior to that date, coverage over the Southern Hemisphere was spotty. Therefore, TC tallies between 1966 and 1979 are likely underestimated.
🔗
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p…
Based on the available data, we know that,
1⃣ There has been 𝒏𝒐 𝒅𝒆𝒕𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 in annual global HU count since 1980 (Knutson et al., 2019). In fact, since 1990, HUs have 𝒅𝒆𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒅 in frequency (Klotzbach et al., 2022).
🔗
journals.ametsoc.org/view/jo…
2⃣ Since 1980 or 1990, there has been 𝒏𝒐 𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒅 in annual global MH count (Klotzbach et al., 2022). The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), however, misleads people by framing this data in a manner that suggests that there has been a significant increase.
In Chapter 11 of their sixth scientific assessment report (AR6), Working Group I (WG1), they say,
🗨️ “𝐼𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑙𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑔𝑙𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑙 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑦 3-5 𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑦𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠... 𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒅 𝒈𝒍𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑡 40 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠.”
🔗
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downl… (p. 1587)
The reason this is misleading is because the increase in the ratio of MHs to total HUs is a result of a decline in total HU count (Jewson & Lewis, 2020). The actual tally of MHs have not gone up since 1990, but the proportion of them has because total HUs decreased.
🔗
mdpi.com/2673-1924/1/4/21
There has been 𝒏𝒐 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 in global TC intensity, as measured by the ACE index, since at least 1980. ACE has actually 𝒅𝒆𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒅 since 1990 (Klotzbach et al., 2022), which weakens the argument that TCs are physically becoming more intense.
TCs are 𝒏𝒐𝒕 intensifying more rapidly. Rapid intensification (RI) events are defined as a ≥30-knot (35 mph) increase in TC Vₘₐₓ in ≤24 hours. Since 1990, there has been 𝒏𝒐 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝒔𝒊𝒈𝒏𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒏𝒕 𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒅 in RI event count globally (see supporting information in Klotzbach et al., 2022).
For completeness, the study did find a global-scale increase in extreme RI events where Vₘₐₓ increases by ≥50 knots (58 mph) in ≤24 hours, which may be due to more favorable thermodynamics (warmer oceans), and that may be due to global warming. However, again, there is no increase in total RI events over the last three and a half decades.
🌧️ 𝐅𝐋𝐎𝐎𝐃𝐈𝐍𝐆 🌧️
Floods are typically measured by river discharge—that is, the flux of water (volume per unit of time) flowing through a river channel, measured by a gauge placed at a fixed point.
With respect to fluvial (river) flood trends, IPCC AR6 WG1 states in Chapter 11 of their assessment,
🗨️ “𝑷𝒆𝒂𝒌 𝒇𝒍𝒐𝒘 𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒔 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑦 ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝒍𝒂𝒄𝒌 𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝒔𝒊𝒈𝒏𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝒅𝒆𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒐𝒓 𝒂𝒏 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒈𝒍𝒐𝒃𝒆 𝒂𝒔 𝒂 𝒘𝒉𝒐𝒍𝒆. 𝑂𝑓 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 3500 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑚𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑈𝑆𝐴, 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑛 𝐸𝑢𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑒, 𝐴𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎, 𝐵𝑟𝑎𝑧𝑖𝑙, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑎, 7.1% 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑑 𝑎 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 11.9% 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑑 𝑎 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 1961–2005.”
🔗
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downl… (p. 1568)
In regards to attributing any trends to anthropogenic influence, they state,
🗨️ “𝐼𝑛 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝒍𝒐𝒘 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 ℎ𝑢𝑚𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑔𝑙𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒. 𝐼𝑛 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙, 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝒍𝒐𝒘 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑎𝑔𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑡𝑜 ℎ𝑢𝑚𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒...”
🔗
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downl… (p. 1569)
Streamflow measurements from USGS river gauges (and compiled by the EPA) show that river flooding across the U.S. has neither increased nor decreased over the last 60 years.
🔗
epa.gov/climate-indicators/c…
In regard to pluvial (flash) flooding IPCC AR6 WG1 has this to say on their FAQ page,
🗨️ “𝐴𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑑-𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑑𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡... 𝐻𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟, 𝒉𝒆𝒂𝒗𝒊𝒆𝒓 𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒇𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒅𝒐𝒆𝒔 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒂𝒍𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒅 𝒕𝒐 𝒈𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒇𝒍𝒐𝒐𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈. 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑢𝑝𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑛, 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑠𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒, 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑤𝑒𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡... 𝐴 𝒎𝒊𝒙 𝒐𝒇 𝒃𝒐𝒕𝒉 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒅𝒆𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒇𝒍𝒐𝒐𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒆 𝒃𝒆𝒆𝒏 𝒐𝒃𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒆𝒅 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠...”
🔗
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downl… (p. 48)
🔥 𝐖𝐈𝐋𝐃𝐅𝐈𝐑𝐄𝐒 🔥
Like with TCs, satellites have improved our ability to map fires and evaluate temporal trends in their count and burn area.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors launched on the NASA Terra (1999) and Aqua (2002) satellites have allowed scientists to monitor fires with greater accuracy and precision. The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) utilizes the MODIS data to compute fire radiative power (FRP) using carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fires, which can be calibrated to compute the approximate area of vegetation burned.
🔗
globalfiredata.org/index.htm… (data:
surfdrive.surf.nl/files/inde…)
The number of wildfires at a global scale 𝒅𝒆𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒅 𝒔𝒊𝒈𝒏𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒏𝒕𝒍𝒚 from 2001 to 2016 (Earl & Simmonds, 2018) and so did the corresponding burn area (Andela et al., 2017). In fact, burn area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% between 1998 and 2015. The reason for this is due to an increase in net primary productivity (NPP) in North Africa and overall global expansion of agriculture.
🔗
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.…
🔗
science.org/doi/10.1126/scie… (open access:
researchgate.net/publication…)
These downtrends have continued in recent years.
🔗
atmosphere.copernicus.eu/cam…
Over the last century, reconstructed global fire burn area has 𝒅𝒆𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒅 𝒔𝒊𝒈𝒏𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒏𝒕𝒍𝒚 as well.
Yang et al. (2014) found that the decadal average fire burn area decreased at a rate of 1.28 × 10⁴ km² / year between 1901 and 2007, albeit with regional variation. They ascribe this to human-induced fire suppression practices.
🔗
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.…
Fires have, however, increased in some regions since the mid-1980s, primarily western North America and specifically, California.
While many are quick to blame this emergent trend on more conducive “fire weather” conditions (e.g., drier fuel loads caused by the 25-year-long “megadrought” and higher air temperatures) caused by “greenhouse gas-” (GHG-) driven climate warming, there is more to this story than you are led on to believe by mainstream media headlines and even many “climate scientists.”
Let's elaborate. . .
Fires require two primary things: (1) an ignition source, and (2) fuel.
Ignition sources can be both natural (e.g., lightning) or man-made (e.g., by accident from, say, an improperly disposed cigarette butt, improperly discarded pellet / wood stove ash, an out-of-control / unattended campfire or power lines knocked down by windstorms, or perhaps even intentionally by arson). But, climate change is not one of them.
According to Balch et al. (2017), 97% of fires between 1992 and 2012 in Mediterranean California had a man-made ignition source.
🔗
pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.16…
California fire burn area is heavily contingent on wind conditions. More specifically, burn area depends on whether or not there are Santa Ana Winds (SAWs). They are not very dependent on either air temperature during the fire or antecedent rainfall in the week or month prior.
Keeley et al. (2021), published in Science, found that 100% of fires in Southern California associated with SAWs between 1948 and 2018 were caused by human ignitions. From 1948 to 1983, the leading cause were campfires and between 1984 and 2008, the leading cause was arson. Since 2009, the leading cause has been power lines knocked down by high winds.
🔗
science.org/doi/10.1126/scia…
The aforementioned study also found that there is no statistically significant correlation between maximum surface air temperature (SAT) recorded during SAW events and the wildfire burn area. In the 71 years they examined, SAT ranged from 5.9 to 35.2°C (43-95°F). Using a t-test, they found that fires burning >1,000 hectares (~2,500 acres) of land were not linked to higher-than-average SATs, and that held true for large fires burning >5,000 hectares (~12,400 acres).
The link between antecedent rainfall in the 7-30 days prior to a SAW-driven wildfire and corresponding burn area was also weak.
This is because small-diameter fuels, such as leaves and twigs, dry out quickly when weather conditions change. The drying power of SAWs cause vegetation to become highly flammable in a matter of hours, even if rainfall has been near or above average in the preceding days or weeks to a fire.
Although 75% of SAW events were accompanied with no fires, because 100% of the fires were caused by a human ignition source, ignitions play the largest role in Southern California fire risk than do background environmental conditions.
In densely forested Northern California, fire exclusion and forest mismanagement (e.g., a lack of mechanical thinning and prescribed burning) has led to a century-long buildup of fuel, primarily on federally owned land. This has increased fire risk significantly in that part of the country.
However, in Southern California, fuel loads are largely consistent of chaparral brush and non-native plant species such as eucalyptus (which contain flammable oils) and palm trees (which combust easily due to their fibrous texture). This has increased the fire risk in that part of the country.
🔗
anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/pdf/839…
What this means is that rapid economic decarbonization efforts would prove futile.
Given 97% of fires are human-caused, it's inevitable that funneling 11 million people who want to live where it is sunny for 6-9 months of the calendar year into a few thousand square miles of land area will result in increased fire occurrence.
Even still, fires in California today are far less severe than they were prior to European settlement. Prior to that, 4.5 to 12 million acres of land burned each year in present-day California alone (Stevens et al., 2007). 2020’s “record-breaking” fire year with 4.2 million acres burned doesn’t even make it into the lower bound of the estimated “prehistoric” mean range.
🔗
farmsandforests.org/Resource…
· · ─ ·✶· ─ · · · · ─ ·✶· ─ · · · · ─ ·✶· ─ · ·
It is abundantly clear that you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about.
That's the reason you are a career politician and not a scientist.