Before talking about Copart
$CPRT earnings, let's talk about Chris Mayer of 100 Baggers book fame.
Latest public data for portfolio - Woodlock Family Capital - was revealed on a Swedish podcast in July of last year. It's the attached list of 12 stocks:
1.
$BRO
2.
$CMG.TO /
$CMDXF
3.
$CPRT
4.
$CSU /
$CSU.TO /
$CNSWF
5.
$DNP.WA /
$DNOPY /
$DNOPF
6.
$HEI /
$HEIA
7.
$JDG.L
8.
$LIFCO /
$LFCBY /
$LFABF
9.
$LMN.V /
$LMGIF
10.
$ROKO.AB /
$ROKOF
11.
$TEQ.ST
12.
$TOI /
$TOI.V /
$TOITF
Almost all of these stocks have had substantial declines within the past several months.
If equal weighted, I wouldn't be surprised if it's up to a 40-50% decline from their highs of 2025. I mean, we can even assume
$CSU is a heavy weighting and that one is more than a 50% plunge since last year's high.
Tried getting Grok to calculate exact return with assumption of equal weighting as of 7-15-2025, but it got lazy on the foreign stocks and refused.
Noticeably absent is
$ODFL. As previously discussed, I went through tens of thousands of shares last year so I know the price action exactly. I'm holding 1k shares at $126 from November and now it's around $200. Who knows exactly where Chris sold but he probably missed at least a 25% gain. Selling out anytime in most of 2025 was a mistake, even if you did want out.
On the bright side, about the only winner here is
$HEI Heico. However, no way that can offset the fact that many/most of these names have been chopped in half.
What's the lesson here?
Investing isn't about being academically correct. This is the same reason Michael Burry's returns blow, even if he is right [eventually] on many of his bets.
Because timing is just as, if not more important, than being right or wrong.
You don't have to agree with the market, but I do think it's a mistake to totally avoid exposure to numerous sectors and themes simply because you don't agree with them for whatever reason (overhyped, overvalued, etc.).
Even if the market is wrong, your "correct" prediction may not come true for many years. Perhaps hundreds of percent later.
Or it may not come true at all, as America has uncanny success at papering over one bubble with another to keep the pyramid scheme going.
So many sector cycles are 5-15 years. You can invest in great long term multi-decade winners (which beat the S&P long term) but experience sideways chop for several years if their sector is out of favor, as their valuations go wildly in both directions. Even if underlying fundamentals are growing that entire time.
So they may underperform for 5 years, then outperform the next 5 as an example.
In fact, a lot of big names today like
$MA,
$SPGI,
$AMZN,
$INTU,
$MELI etc. may fit that bill. Their 3 or 5-year charts may be disasters but overlay with fundamentals for true story.
With the exception of couple of Chris Mayer's holdings I've discussed disliking before, overall I love his stocks. However, I hate how correlated they are.
Now you may look at the industries they are in and the foreign exposure and argue, how can that be correlated?
Well, it's very uncorrelated to the S&P. That's how.
- Not much large cap, no mega cap.
- No trending themes like AI.
- No US winners, with foreign focus on Europe and Canada only.
Yes, I know why he loves Sweden and also why he chose most of these. This fund would likely outperform US in bear market or AI-bust scenario, so I'm not saying the story is finished by any means.
However, if you don't want gut-wrenching 40-50% drawdowns, you have to own some stuff correlating with S&P.
Same reason why a portfolio of all X stocks is so painful right now, while S&P is near ATH.
At any given time, the market is a rolling bubble of overvalued themes contrasted with undervalued themes.
When you own the whole market, you own both over and undervalued, which is why it's smoother ride.
The problem is, everything except for
$HEI here is within an underperforming theme right now. That's why it's so painful, for now.
I think his portfolio will recover and do great long term, but personally, I would not want all or a high percentage of my net worth in holdings like this.
I like having diverse exposure to my favorite stocks in each industry, because I know each will get their turn at being in and out of favor.
Some spice is nice too, because then you don't get FOMO when say, you see
$RKLB or
$X (SpaceX) going to the moon. I own both of those as you may know, even though they are egregiously overvalued.
Rather than sell on overvaluation, I prefer to just *hold* unless the business thesis has materially and permanently changed (or seems to have). If not, I'll just hold through the boom-bust-boom.
As far as Copart
$CPRT earnings, not going to say anything until after I listen to earnings call and evaluate.