⚡ THE SCIENCE IS CHANGING. LIBERTARIAN ENERGY POLICY HASN'T NEEDED TO. ⚡
For years, governments around the world used increasingly ambitious targets, subsidies, mandates and regulations to reshape energy markets.
Many of those policies were justified using the most extreme climate scenario available: RCP8.5 (later SSP5-8.5).
Now, the scientific community is moving on.
The scenario framework being prepared for the IPCC's next assessment report (AR7) has dropped SSP5-8.5 from the range of plausible future pathways, concluding that the highest CMIP6 emissions levels have "become implausible" due to technological change, emissions trends and existing policy developments.
Even the European Commission now states:
"The highest emission scenario (RCP8.5) is no longer considered plausible."
The Washington Post recently reported that the UN climate science process is poised to retire RCP8.5 because scientists found those projections "have become implausible."
Importantly, this does not mean climate change is not real.
Nor does it mean environmental challenges disappear.
What it does mean is that governments should be cautious about building massive economic interventions around worst-case assumptions that are no longer considered plausible.
And that's exactly where Libertarians have been consistent for decades.
✅ No subsidies
✅ No mandates
✅ No technology bans
✅ No politically imposed energy targets
✅ No government picking winners and losers
Instead:
⚙️ Let engineers solve engineering problems.
💰 Let investors risk their own capital.
🏭 Let businesses compete.
👨👩👧👦 Let consumers choose.
If nuclear wins, build nuclear.
If solar and batteries win, build solar and batteries.
If hydro, gas, geothermal, hydrogen, coal, fusion or technologies not yet invented prove superior, let them compete fairly.
The market should decide.
Not politicians.
Not bureaucrats.
Not activists.
What policy changes should come next?
➡️ End renewable energy subsidies.
➡️ End EV subsidies.
➡️ End battery subsidy schemes.
➡️ Abolish technology-specific energy targets.
➡️ Remove the federal ban on nuclear energy.
➡️ Prioritise grid reliability and energy security.
➡️ Focus on domestic energy self-sufficiency.
Government has a role.
That role is ensuring Australia can power itself reliably, securely and affordably.
Everything beyond that should be driven by competition, innovation and consumer choice.
The retirement of RCP8.5 doesn't prove Libertarians right about everything. Only about the need to treat the worst aspects of the most exaggerated reports on climate skeptically.
But it does reinforce one lesson:
When science evolves, centrally planned policy often struggles to keep up.
Free markets adapt.
Freedom adapts.
Innovation adapts.
And that's why Libertarians continue to support a simple principle:
No Subsidies. No Mandates. No Targets.
Let the market decide.
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