Just published a contrarian take on so-called “AI losers” that I think are mispriced.
The mistake: assuming AI deletes demand, rather than reshaping workflows.
In enterprise settings, AI usually:
• automates the easy path
• creates complexity (edge cases, QA, compliance)
• shifts value to whoever owns the workflow
That distinction matters for investors.
Several incumbents are priced as if AI would erase their revenue.
A more likely outcome:
• demand shifts
• unit economics change
• incumbents sell AI back into their installed base
That’s the setup.
The piece looks at three names across the stack:
• Teleperformance — scaled CX operations
• Text S.A. — customer communication & orchestration
• RWS — language, content, and IP workflows
Different businesses. Same market overreaction.
Why these work as a basket:
• AI panic already priced in
• expectations are low
• outcomes don’t need to be heroic for re-ratings
Two of them also pay solid dividends.
This isn’t risk-free:
• pricing pressure
• execution risk
• slower-than-expected pivots
But when stocks price in unlikely catastrophes, “normal” outcomes can surprise.
Full piece here:
open.substack.com/pub/hydrar…
Thoughtful pushback welcome. Happy to debate.