some guesses on the pricing of $SPCX options to be listed next week... 1. one month implied vol between 125 and 175. that means 1m call and put prices (ignoring interest rates) are both roughly between 14 and 20% of spot. at 150 vol, the 1m straddle costs 34%. sounds kind of cheap even, but these are very high levels for a company with a market cap well north of a trillion. 2. the termstructure of vol will be strictly downward sloping. I will put 1m/2m/6m/12m implied vol at 150/125/100/90 3. the 1m strike skew will be flat from the 25 delta put to the 25 delta call, middled at 150. but higher at 10d and 5d points on both the put and call as it is really difficult to be short the tail in either direction. 4. price discovery to be quite healthy, even at low delta points. there's something about very high vol assets that allows the market makers to make tight prices on the wings. I think it's because there will be keen interest from speculators as well, creating 2-way flow. We saw this very much happen in $IBIT and $CRCL on launch. 5. a pretty low put/call ratio. because...what are puts anyway? this stock could literally go "to the moon"...or Mars, at least. history tells us that these initial levels (again, just guesses) will normalize over time. 150 vol will be difficult to sustain as it requires a nearly 10% move each day in SPCX. the inverted termstructure of vol suggests this. my guess is that over the course of 3-6 months, it becomes an 80 vol asset...still extraordinarily high for a company with so much market cap, but this is entirely unique.

Bet is that the Strait will reopen one way or another soon. Termstructure went into more backwardation.

On Samsung's earnings call in April, Kim Jaejune, the company's "Memory Chief", warned that "significant shortages" across memory products are expected to continue through at least 2027. In February, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said, "There's no relief until 2028.". Enter the $DRAM ETF, a product that was launched just a month ago. It's already up 75% and has 4bln in AuM. Kudos to RoundHill, clipping 65bps on a portfolio of 7 or 8 stocks. Half the portfolio is SK hynix and Samsung. DRAM has all of the characteristics of a proper "spot up, vol up" episode on full display. A) the correlation between spot and vol is positive B) The implied vol surface tilts heavily to the call side C) The put/call ratio skews heavily to calls D) The termstructure of implied vol is inverted E) the ETF is realizing 75 vol on up days and less than half that on down days (35). F) There is furious volume in the shares @EricBalchunas has a great tweet on the volume front x.com/EricBalchunas/status/2…

@TermMaxFi 进化史 从 TermStructure 起步，2025年4月主网上线，开启固定利率新时代 ，V1 首创一键杠杆，锁定收益与成本，稳抓机构刚需 。 2026年迭代 V2，可组合收益、原子订单、智能解仓。跨链扩展7大公链，用户超百万。 一键展期、RWA市场、TMX代币经济。从固定利率工具，成长为 DeFi 固收基建

a clip from the most recent podcast with @HariPKrishnan2 ... options always cost money, but thoughtful trade construction, leveraging the termstructure of vol and futures, can help mitigate carry costs youtube.com/watch?v=QsnZJIXv…

Almost 100% De-escalation Priced in to SPX vol...options provide the right to change your mind... Below, the termstructure of SPX implied vol as of Friday's close. Right next to it, the two trading days before 2/28, when the the conflict began. It's been a frenetic 2 months, to be sure. SPX 2m realized vol rose from 12 to 16. The VIX surpassed 31 on an intraday basis. The Oil VIX reached its highest level ever, outside of the GFC and Covid crashes. The correlation of crude to major macro proxies surged as crude became the VIX across markets. The readthrough on the negligible increase in implied vol is that this conflict is quickly fading into the background. Is that too optimistic? Current vol on the SPX, nearly back to where it began, is essentially a free option that expresses doubt that that can happen.

🚀 姐妹👭們，tge接近尾聲了！ TermMax by Term Structure 剛開了全新市場！ 現在可以直接玩 $X、$USDC、$HONEY、$MILK 的結構化產品跟衍生品了。 @TermMaxFi 圖片這配置看起來就很兇，X 在最上面當老大，下面兩邊 USDC HONEY 跟 MILK 對決，感覺要來一波大行情啊 🔥 我已經進去研究了，你們也來看看吧！ #TermMax #TermStructure #DeFi #X #HONEY #MILK

现在DeFi借贷利率乱跳、清算风险一大堆， @TermMaxFi 用固定利率 无清算核心机制，重构链上金融体验。 作为TermStructure Labs打造的协议，2025年4月主网上线后，还获Cumberland领投680万美元，实力硬核。

在 DeFi 借贷利率频繁波动、清算风险频发的当下，TermMaxFi 以固定利率 无清算核心机制，重构链上金融体验。作为 TermStructure Labs 打造的固定利率借贷协议，2025 年 4 月主网上线至今，已部署以太坊、Arbitrum、BNB Chain 等 7 大主流公链，总用户突破 104 万，日活跃钱包达 5181 个，TVL 超 3490 万美元，获 Cumberland 领投 680 万美金融资，实力备受行业认可。 TermMaxFi 彻底告别浮动利率焦虑，借贷双方可提前锁定约定利率与期限，无论市场如何震荡，收益与成本均清晰可预期。其创新无清算机制，终结极端行情下被动爆仓风险，用户开仓前即可明确亏损上限，风险完全可控。同时支持一键杠杆循环、代币化美股（如 NVDA、TSLA）等 RWA 资产抵押，资金利用率拉满。 多链覆盖、极速操作、机构级安全（DeFiSafety 评分 93%），让稳健收益与高效操作兼得。无论是追求稳定收益的出借人，还是锁定成本的借款人，TermMaxFi 都是 DeFi 资产配置的优选。立即体验，让每一笔资金都在确定中增值！ @TermMaxFi

termstructure on majors is quite telling here the market is kind of diverting away from a middle ground scenario as we see vols being bid on the very short end and very long end but nothing in between in other words the overall market expects a very quick end or a very long dragout of the conflict here this looked entirely different a week ago where the short end was predominantly the main thesis what does this mean for my magic internet money?

7/ $VIX TermStructure inversion out several mnths indicates a #Risk -off evnt tht is imminent & upon us, lasting several wks out to mnths. #Silver * & #Gold R down big. This is forced selling, & is systemic liquidation occurring. The #USD is up huge as a global safe haven. #OOTT

很多人把链上杠杆和“高风险、易爆仓”画上等号，本质原因在于我们熟悉的其实是永续合约模型，而不是所有形式的杠杆。 TermMaxAlpha在BNBChain上做的事情，并不是把Perps搬到链上，而是把TradFi里的TermStructure（期限结构） 期权式风险定价引入DeFi，用固定成本替代浮动保证金，把杠杆从“路径依赖风险”改写为“结果依赖风险”。 一、从“保证金博弈”到“固定成本交易” 传统永续交易的风险来自两个变量： 浮动资金费率（Funding不确定） 实时保证金清算（MarkPrice决定生死） 也就是说，你是否亏损，不只取决于方向，还取决于过程中发生了什么。 TermMaxAlpha把这套逻辑拆掉，换成类似期权的结构： 开多≈购买一个带到期日的CallExposure 开空≈购买一个PutExposure 你在开仓时支付固定Premium（溢价） 最大亏损在交易建立瞬间就被锁定 不存在追加保证金，也不存在强制平仓路径 风险从“随时可能爆炸”变成了可预先定价的持仓成本。 二、为什么它可以做到“无清算” 关键在于它不是借保证金去对赌，而是构建了一个固定期限借贷市场 AMM定价曲线： 每一笔杠杆本质是固定利率融资，到期统一结算 资产负债关系在创建时已经匹配，不依赖实时风控引擎 AMM负责撮合不同期限、不同Strike的风险需求 做市方通过类似UniswapV3的区间流动性管理风险敞口 这意味着协议不需要像Perps那样持续盯市和清算，因为系统内部不存在“资不抵债”的动态扩散过程。 换句话说： Perps解决的是连续风险管理问题， TermMax解决的是风险一次性定价问题。 三、TermStructure设计带来的真实优势 这种结构在高波动资产阶段尤其有效，比如新资产价格发现期： 交易者可以用小额Premium获取方向性杠杆敞口 不会因为短时波动被洗出市场 没有FundingDrag，持仓成本清晰可计算 风险上限天然封顶，适合事件驱动型策略 当前支持的资产如INX、WMTX、ESPORTS、POWER等，本身就处在价格探索阶段，这类市场恰恰更适合用“期限化杠杆”而不是“无限续命杠杆”。 四、它并非降低风险，而是重构风险形态 需要明确一点： TermMax不是让杠杆变安全，而是把风险从流动性风险 清算风险，转化为定价风险 时间风险。 你仍然可能判断错误方向， 但不会在正确判断之前被市场噪音强行出局。 这是一种更接近TradFi衍生品思维的链上实现： 让交易者承担观点错误的代价，而不是承担机制噪音的代价。 五、适合什么样的交易者 更偏向以下场景： 做事件驱动或叙事交易，而非高频博弈 希望锁定最大损失，而不是动态管理保证金 需要在波动期保持仓位表达，而不是被动降杠杆 熟悉期权或固定收益逻辑的用户 不适合把它当作Perps替代品使用，它更像是链上的“结构化方向工具”。 TermMaxAlpha的意义，不只是提供一种新产品，而是把DeFi杠杆从perpetual模式，扩展到了term-basedriskmarket。 当链上开始出现完整的期限结构时，才真正接近一个可定价风险的金融体系。 #TermMaxAlpha#DeFi#BNBChain @TermMaxFi @BNBCHAIN @aave @RiverdotInc

The SPX is a whopping 65bps from its ATH. And yet, unless you are really trying not to notice, asset prices are doing what they do best: helping us understand risk from many dimensions. In the process, they help us ask (and sometimes answer) questions. TLDR: for assets and risk categories that are experiencing benign vol, the action taking place outside you is well worth watching. These strong movements may be a preview of what's coming your way. KOSPI2 The benchmark index in Korea is up 23% YTD. Its 1m vol is up more than 20 in the process. Since 2025, the index is up 135%. 1m vol is up 28 over this time frame. Its termstructure is currently deeply inverted. These are exceedingly rare occurrences for an index that is rallying. Its last 5 days have included 3 daily moves in excess of 4%. Bitcoin I will let Twitter have at it with all the commentary on bitcoin. I'll just add that its last 5 days include returns of -7%, -13% and 9%. You may be a lover or a hater. Whatever side you are on, Mr. Market has made your exposure much larger than it was, at least for now. Meaning, the daily value at risk of a share today >> last year when realized vol was less than half what it is now. One price worth monitoring is the $IBIT 5 delta put vol (charted below vs the 1m 5d call). I've talked a great deal about bitcoin as a stock up, vol up asset. When it gets liquidated, it can certainly be a stock down vol up asset as well. I think that watching these extremely low delta puts is worthwhile. It's a market price that reflects the willingness of investors to pay for true unwind insurance set against the ability for other investors to provide that insurance. Gold and Silver A speculative frenzy has overtaken these assets. ETFs, mining stocks, futures, Perps, options, daily 2x products...The GVZ (Gold VIX) just hit its second highest close ever at 46 on 1/29. Any comp to a Covid record (GVZ hit 49 on 3/18/20) isn't really a fair fight. But the main difference is that this sky-high vol occurred during a rally, not a meltdown. What's happened in silver makes gold look like a consumer staple stock on a relative vol basis. On 1/30, the AGQ (2x leveraged ETF on Silver) fell by 59% in one day as 38.6mln shares traded. $GLD $SLV Rate and FX Vol A curious non-participant in the increase in vol is the US rates market. This is at odds with some of the strong moves in FX vol. In the Euro, the bid to puts on the dollar, as reflected in the 1m 25d skew, recently reached the 97th over the last 5 years. The ratio of 1m $TLT vol to the CVIX (1m currency vol index) is at its lowest point in 6 years (chart below). This includes the post-Covid period when the Fed was definitively at zero and the 10-year yielded as low at 70bps. US rates have been mired in quite a range-bound low vol period. While interest rate options are not cheap to realized vol, they are cheap to many assets they are generally linked to. One thing we vol geeks like to do is to isolate catalysts that can generate vol in an asset. And TLT vol out to September gets you long three Warsh Fed meetings (June, July, Sept). Fed Chairs do tend to get tested early on and there is surely a learning curve around using language that isn't vulnerable to misinterpretation by reporters and market participants. "The Sweet Art of Saying Nothing" takes a bit to get good at. In the meantime, market vol may result. SPX Realized Correlation A second non-participant in some of the frenzied price movements is SPX correlation. Last week, the SPX was essentially flat. Consumer discretionary and communication services were down more than 4%. Staples, industrials, energy were up 4-6%. The 10d realized vol of $MSFT is 70, more than 3x what it was running during the 2nd half of 2025. But since Feb began, its correlation to the 7 others in the Mag8 (NVDA, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, META, TSLA, AVGO)? 6.3%. That is incredibly low. The correlation between the XLK and XLC over the last 2 months is 21%. We've never seen something so low. My guess: equities become more correlated and interest rates start moving more. Have an excellent day and stay warm.

agree vol is up. it will take a bit for it to settle in as the realized remains sky high. silver vol looks flat to me across the termstructure...but remains deeply inverted...one year vol at 70 is going to be hard to sustain in my view...obviously scary to be short vega on an asset like this, but the gravitational pull is lower

Using termstructure to examine the distinctiveness of gold vol is another highly instructive method. I've plotted $GLD TS against the SPX on 4/8/25, the peak of the Tariff Tantrum, and the day before Bessent gave Trump a reality check. On April 9, Trump walked everything back. The deep inversion, in which the two assets share 1m>3m>12m vol at these particular times. But over the ten trading days prior, the SPX had dropped by 13.7%. Over the last ten, the GLD has increased by 17.3%. The SPX is the outcome of the very conventional strong risk-off, but both termstructures are severely inverted. The deep inversion was caused by a risk-on for the GLD.

Another very instructive way of looking at the uniqueness of gold vol is via termstructure. Below, I am plotting $GLD TS vs that of the SPX on 4/8/25, the height of the Tariff Tantrum and the day before Bessent shook some sense into Trump, who walked everything back on April 9th. The deep inversion, where 1m>3m>12m vol is shared across the two assets at these specific point in time. However, the SPX had fallen by 13.7% over the preceding 10 trading days. The GLD is up 17.3% over the most recent 10. So you get both termstructures deeply inverted, but the SPX is the result of the very traditional strong risk-off. For the GLD, it's a risk-on that has created the deep inversion. It speaks to how different gold vol is and again, what we identified early last year.

最近 $river 的暴涨再次证明了市场对“妖币”和新叙事的饥渴。但如果把目光放长远，DeFi 的下半场拼的不仅仅是爆发力，更是“确定性”。 这就是我看好 @TermMaxFi 的原因。 当我们在 $river 这种波动中冲浪时，底层流动性市场正在悄悄发生质变。Term Structure 正在构建 DeFi 稀缺的固定利率基建。 想象一下，未来不管是 Meme 狂欢后的资金沉淀，还是机构入场，都需要这种无清算风险、收益可预测的工具。 一边是 $river 的星辰大海，一边是 @TermMaxFi 的定海神针。左手博弈，右手基建，这或许才是穿越牛熊的最佳姿势。 #DeFi #TermStructure #Crypto

TLDR: Japan has got to be on the US investor's risk mosaic. 3m30y swaption vol in US vs Japan...at least back to 2011, Japan has never been higher, until now. Chart below. The story of $280mln in notional trading in JGBs inducing a liquidity cascade earlier this week is troubling. A second risk measure to watch is NKY implied vol which is quite high. 1m implied is in the 94th %ile...the SPX is in just the 45th %ile (last 3 years). In addition, NKY implied vol termstructure is slightly inverted and the call skew is very well bid. These are all results of "stock up, vol up". Since the start of 2025, the NKY is up 28.6% on a total return basis. ATM vol is up 7.5 over this period. Very rare for this to occur in a developed country equity index...but these are "never say never" times. Second chart below. Lastly, while Yen vol isn't that high nominally, it is nearly double recent realized vol. This very high VRP speaks to the pricing of uncertainty. All of this is to remind US investors of the linkages and potential sources of spill-over from other markets and geographies. Recall the VIX event of 8/5/24.

TLDR: Japan has got to be on the US investor's risk mosaic. 3m30y swaption vol in US vs Japan...at least back to 2011, Japan has never been higher, until now. Chart below. The story of $280mln in notional trading in JGBs inducing a liquidity cascade earlier this week is troubling. A second risk measure to watch is NKY implied vol which is quite high. 1m implied is in the 94th %ile...the SPX is in just the 45th %ile (last 3 years). In addition, NKY implied vol termstructure is slightly inverted and the call skew is very well bid. These are all results of "stock up, vol up". Since the start of 2025, the NKY is up 28.6% on a total return basis. ATM vol is up 7.5 over this period. Very rare for this to occur in a developed country equity index...but these are "never say never" times. Second chart below. Lastly, while Yen vol isn't that high nominally, it is nearly double recent realized vol. This very high VRP speaks to the pricing of uncertainty. All of this is to remind US investors of the linkages and potential sources of spill-over from other markets and geographies. Recall the VIX event of 8/5/24.

Term Structure 空投明牌加码？ 必撸‼️必撸‼️必撸‼️必撸‼️ 新增3大社交徽章，这波AP积分才是关键！ 🎖️ @TermMaxFi 最近动作频率极高 刚更新了UI，紧接着又上线了3个社交徽章：Community Catalyst / Architect / Titan。 别小看这几个牌子，这直接印证了我的猜想： 未来的空投权重大概率会向 AP（交易与流动性积分）深度倾斜。 🔻 徽章怎么拿？ 本质是拉新，但门槛变精明了。需要带来 10/50/100 个“有效用户”。 何为有效？ 对方在 Alpha 交易、金库存款、借贷等任意操作中，活跃额度必须 > $10。 Term 现在不要“僵尸号”，只要真金白银体验产品的真玩家。 🔻 积分体系拆解：大户如何弯道超车？ 现在的三大榜单（XP、AP、MP）并排，项目方的意图很明显： • MP (嘴撸)： 门槛最低，适合推特活跃份子 • XP (质押)： 大户天堂，靠存入量躺赚 • AP (交易/流动性)： 这是核心。 很多人反馈交易刷不动（流动性限制），其实提供流动性才是正解。我选了年化最高的 USDT Dual Vault，虽然人多摊薄了，但目前 50% 左右的收益依然很香 🔻 为什么现在值得冲？ 1️⃣ 数据硬核： TVL 破 41M（目标 50M），RootData 排名第 4，第二阶段社区增长已完成 70%，Q1 极大可能 TGE，留给我们的时间不多了 2️⃣ 背书顶级： HashKey、Cumberland 领投，安全评分 93 分，不是那种跑路盘 3️⃣ 实战逻辑： 它是固定利率借贷，能抵押 Ondo 的美股代币借钱。这种能蹭到 RWA 红利的项目，逻辑在牛市里非常吃香 💡 我的实操建议： 新手先把一次性的 7.4w AP 任务做了，每天记得签到拿 XP。 想拿权重大的，直接冲 Dual Vault 刷 AP，项目方最认这种能提供深度流动性的真操作。 羊毛要薅，就得薅在刀刃上。 还没上车的抓紧，目前第二阶段马上结束，21万人参与看着多，但真正拿到高级徽章的还没几个，现在入场不晚！ 速度加入 传送门：app.termmax.ts.finance/alpha… #TermStructure #WXT #Crypto #RWA #Lending