π· SPY Weekly Plan β May 19β23, 2025
Closed Friday at $597.01
π Pulled through resistance β now we see who holds the line.
βͺ Market Structure
π© Daily: OTFU β Price building higher lows
π© Weekly: OTFU β Breakout continuation
π¨ Monthly: Balanced β Testing upper bounds
π· Contextual Outlook
Last weekβs coil snapped upward with force. Price broke the $596.70 zone, then tagged and closed above the 2025 open. On Friday, the market extended cleanly before Moodyβs credit downgrade triggered a sharp 27-point after-hours drop.
Now weβre coming into the week with the first serious retracement trigger in over 5 weeks β the question is: pullback or breakdown?
π·The key is $596.70
Above = trend intact.
Below = retrace begins.
Two high-volume zones below β $590.80 and $585.00 β will serve as test beds for dip buyers.
π· Current Range
π’ Top = $612.00 (Weekly Extreme High)
π‘ Bottom = $581.50 (Weekly Extreme Low)
Fade the extremes until one gives. Inside that range, it's all about control.
π· Key Pivot
ποΈLine in the Sand: $596.70
π’ Hold Above β Upside Targets:
$601.40 β Recent NVPOC
$608.50 β Resistance shelf
$612.00* β Weekly Extreme High
$616.60 β ATH breakdown shelf
$621.50 β Blue sky breakout
π΄ Break Below β Downside Targets:
$590.80 β 5D/20D VPOC cluster
$585.00 β March value low
$581.50* β Weekly Extreme Low
$574.10 β Prior breakout zone
$571.00 β Origin of gap from May 13
π§· Weekly Extremes = edge of emotional territory. Stay sharp at these levels.
π· Playbook
Above $596.70 β Trend continues. Buy dips toward 590.80β596.70. Target 601.40β612.00
Below $596.70 β Back into balance. Look for failed breakdowns near 585β590 zone.
This week is reactionary β we just got the first outside shock. Patience > prediction.
π· Trade Setups
β±οΈConservative:
Let price test $590.80 or $585.00 β watch for failed breakdown reversal. Ride to 601 .
βοΈ Aggressive:
Early dip buy near $592.50β$593.00 with tight stop. Target 601. Trail past 604.
π· If/Then Scenarios:
β
If we reclaim $601.40 β push to $608.50β$612.00 likely
β οΈ If we lose $590.80 β fast drop toward $585.00β$581.50
β If we break $581.50 β opens full retrace to $574.10 and gap below
π·Ending Thoughts:
The 5-week rally may have hit its first headwind.
Price is strong. But sentiment is fragile. Bad news will be amplified here.
Let price confirm β then act.
$596.70 is your war line.
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