I care deeply about living a good life. Interests: Classics, Philosophy, AI, and Tesla $TSLA.
Joined March 2009
- Tweets 5,468
- Following 586
- Followers 1,369
- Likes 61,535
352 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
29 Dec 2023
“Suffering and pain are always mandatory for broad minds and deep hearts.
Truly great people, it seems to me, should feel great sadness on this earth.”
— Fyodor Dostoevsky
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James Steele retweeted
May 29
@DavidMoss, @DevinOlsenn, and @Scotsrule08 are proud to announce that we have successfully completed the world’s first Canada coast to coast fully autonomous drive!
We left Horseshoe Bay Terminal in Vancouver. BC 4 days & 21 hours ago, and now have ended in Halifax, NS at the Tesla Showroom
(3,760miles/6,051km)
This was accomplished with Tesla FSD v14.3.3 with absolutely 0 disengagements of any kind even for all parking including at Tesla Superchargers.
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James Steele retweeted
May 11
AI frees you from having the quality of service depend on others' competency. It allows you to roll up your sleeves if you are not satisfied with the work.
Thus, it terrifies others that people may discover how long they have been subjected to incompetence.
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James Steele retweeted
May 8
Ever notice how it’s always the ones who haven’t made it who throw the most shade?
The broke criticize those who built wealth — instead of putting in the work.
The unfit mock those who got in shape.
The 9-5er doubts the person chasing freedom on their own.
Meanwhile, the truly successful, disciplined, and bold lift others up.
Pretenders cast shade.
If you’re throwing it… go look in the mirror.
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May 8
RT @ShrimpTeslaLong: @CuriousPejjy I think we should wait for a merger and acquisition proposal before jumping to any decisions. So far, it…
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James Steele retweeted
May 7
Tesla SHOULD NOT merge with SpaceXAI!
The main reason given for Tesla not merging with SpaceXAI is goes something like: "Robotaxi hasn't ramped yet. Tesla stock could 5X. I'm here for the ramp. Optimus hasn't ramped either. Tesla could 10x. Let's give it a few years. I don't want to give my upside to SpaceXAI shareholders who just enjoyed a 4.4X since last summer."
On its surface, this is a sound argument. I share these sentiments.
Who could argue with that?
I will.
(I'm capable of holding two opposing thoughts in my mind at the same time).
AI waits for no one
First, have you seen how fast AI is moving?
How durable is Tesla's Robotaxi moat? Honest answer: I believe it's strong, but we just don't know.
How durable is Tesla's Optimus moat? Honest answer: I believe Tesla is extremely well positioned, but again, we just don't know.
So no one has the luxury of waiting a few years to see how things play out in this space.
The good news is that Elon has always been good at seeing the next steps ahead and positioning his companies well before most.
Robotaxi Ramp Issues
What happens to the Robotaxi ramp if Federal autonomous legislation doesn't come?
What happens if Federal autonomous legislation is terrible?
Or, perhaps the legislation is favorable, but think about what could happen to the Robotaxi ramp if Elon can't get enough chips to build millions Cybercabs or build tens/hundreds of millions of Optimi.
Being chip constrained would materially harm the present value of Tesla if Robotaxi and Optimus can't scale beyond a certain point.
Sure the cash flow pours in on the first 10 million Robotaxis, but investors would say: "We're going to give this company a low P/E because their growth is capped. They should have thought ahead and invested in semiconductor capacity. This business can't scale."
What does Tesla need SpaceXAI for?
1) Capital - fresh off an IPO SpaceXAI will be flush with cash.
2) Starlink for low-cost global connectivity to cars, Semi and Optimus.
3) Grok is the interface for Robotaxi (so you can speak to the car).
4) Grok is the brain/voice of Optimus.
5) Orbital AI data centers are needed for training & inference for Robotaxi, Optimus and Digital Optimus.
6) Semiconductors from Terafab - a joint project between Tesla and SpaceX (Tesla can't self-fund this).
7) SpaceX's material science expertise.
Sharing the Wealth with SpaceXAI
Okay, so if Tesla isn't merged with SpaceXAI, how much will Tesla have to pay SpaceXAI for all of the above?
- What portion of Robotaxi revenue goes to SpaceXAI?
- What portion of Optimus revenue goes to SpaceXAI?
Tesla may have to pay SpaceXAI a slice of the economics from Robotaxi and Optimus.
That could mean SpaceXAI collects money every time:
- a Robotaxi mile is driven,
- an Optimus unit uses Grok,
- a vehicle connects through Starlink,
- Tesla uses orbital data centers,
- or Tesla runs fleet-level inference.
So Tesla shareholders may think they are avoiding dilution by rejecting a merger. But they may simply be choosing a different kind of dilution: permanent economic leakage.
Instead of giving SpaceXAI shareholders ownership upfront, Tesla may end up paying SpaceXAI forever.
Pick your poison carefully!
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James Steele retweeted
Apr 3
Elizabeth Warren is pointing out a significant problem: the typical American is 6.5 million times less productive than Elon Musk. Can you imagine how much wealthier we would all be, how much wealthier the country would be if we pulled up our socks like Elon?
Apr 3
Elon Musk has 6.5 MILLION times more wealth than the typical American.
It’s time for a wealth tax — billionaires must pay their fair share.
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Mar 20
Anyone who is asking the question "Can I retire on X amount of money?" is not ready to retire no matter how much money they have.
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James Steele retweeted
Feb 27
Nobody is talking about this.
The children born today will never know a world without autonomous AI.
They won’t Google things. They’ll ask an agent.
They won’t learn to code. They’ll learn to direct.
They won’t write resumes. There may not be jobs to apply to.
We’re raising the first generation of humans who will grow up alongside minds that aren’t human.
And we’re parenting them with a 1995 playbook.
The most important skill you can teach your kids right now isn’t math or coding.
It’s how to think. How to discern. How to stay human when everything around them isn’t.
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Feb 17
My @openclaw agent is sleeping on the job. Fourth morning in row the cron job to send me a morning brief had failed.
Each morning it apologizes, says the problem has been fixed, and promises flawless delivery the next day. 🤷♂️
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James Steele retweeted
Feb 14
Accept People As How They Are, But Place Them Where They Belong youtube.com/shorts/nk2n8Imaz… via @YouTube
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Think in probabilities
Feb 14
Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.
So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.
Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?
Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.
For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.
Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.
Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.
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James Steele retweeted
Feb 11
The most underrated flex is being easy to reach for the people who matter and hard to reach for the people who don’t. Guard your attention with your life. It’s the only resource you can’t create more of.
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Feb 4
RT @iamtomnash: The biggest investing skill nobody wants to talk about is the ability to be uncomfortable.
Uncomfortable when your stocks…
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Feb 3
Why $TSLA shareholders might worry this merger is letting things get too big??
Musk's empire being consolidated (Tesla → SpaceX → xAI) will become one of the largest, most centralized "antifragile-looking" bets in history.
Does the sheer size of this create fragility for everyone else (investors, supply chains, even civilization if AI/space ambitions go wrong at that scale).
FWIW I am thinking of @nntaleb's warning ("too big to fail is a curse")
Anyone else here worried about this tension? @chamath? @alojoh? @JOBhakdi @thejefflutz @SawyerMerritt
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Feb 3
RT @alojoh: Here’s the brilliance of the staged SpaceX/xAI—and soon Tesla—merger.
Elon’s refusal to shut down Tesla SpaceX/xAI merger s…
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