SOME THOUGHTS: THE IRAN PATTERN
The ceasefire began on April 8. The understanding appeared straightforward: the U.S. stops striking Iran, and Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz open.
That never happened.
Instead, the IRGC turned the strait into leverage. Merchant vessels are harassed, shipping is disrupted, and Iran began charging vessels a $2 million "environmental fee" to pass through.
The U.S. response was a naval blockade.
The blockade appears to be hurting Iran. But it is not the same as some of the other options on the table, including directly targeting the regime's infrastructure and economic lifeline.
Now the focus seems to be shifting.
Iran is openly saying that any broader agreement requires protection for Hezbollah, a U.S. designated terrorist org that keeps firing rockets at populated civilian neighborhoods.
At the same time, U.S. appears willing to pressure Israel in that direction in pursuit of a broader regional arrangement.
Looking back, there is a pattern that is difficult not to notice.
When Hamas was under maximum pressure, a deal emerged. A major achievement that brought hostages home, but Hamas remained.
When the IRGC suffered the most severe military setback in its history, a ceasefire followed.
Now Hezbollah is under intense pressure, and suddenly its future is becoming part of the diplomatic conversation.
Maybe that's coincidence.
Maybe it isn't.
What happens next is not hard to imagine.
60 day ceasefire.
The U.S. blockade on Iran is gradually eased.
Hormuz reopens.
IRGC and regime get breathing room.
Hezbollah gets breathing room.
Nuclear talks restart.
Months pass.
Then we find ourselves in a familiar place.
Iran still has its nuclear program.
Iran still has its missiles.
Iran still has its proxy network.
And the regime is still in power.
Meanwhile, the original reason all of this started risks fading into the background (“Help is on the way”)
Potential outcome?
A 60 day ceasefire becomes 6 months.
6 months becomes another round of negotiations.
Another round of negotiations becomes another year.
And eventually we find ourselves right back where we started, except Iran is stronger, Hezbollah has recovered, and the nuclear program has moved even further ahead.
Maybe that's not what happens.
But Tehran has spent 40 years mastering the art of buying time.
Jay