Three ways a spot a top 1% startup
1. Ambition bordering on âludicrousâ
@bobmcgrewai (early Palantir, OpenAI): âBoth Palantir and OpenAI were considered ludicrous when the companies were first started."
@soleio (early Facebook, Figma, Dropbox): "I was surprised by the ferocity and ambition of the early Facebook team."
@seanrose (early Slack, Box, Meter): âIf a companyâs thesis is marked by extraordinary ambition, itâs probably worth paying attention.â
@rsms (early Spotify, Figma, Dropbox) explains: âThe logic here is simple: If everyone says, âYes, thatâs clearly a great idea, and you have direct competitors on day one, you are definitely late to the game. Even if you excel and go above and beyond expectations, the chance of making a meaningful difference in this world is small-ish. However, if someone has sailed across the sea of exploration, waded through the bog of research, and is still going on about an idea, thereâs a small chance that they are ahead of the rest of us and see something Iâve yet to see.â
2. Judging todayâs product is a trap
@soleio said that when he first logged in to Facebook, âI remember being disappointed. The version their team had described was light-years ahead of what I saw that day.â Likewise, Figma was more prototype than product the day Dylan laid out his vision to me for building a collaborative design platform.â
@cjc (early Stripe, Notion, Linear) had a similar perspective: âMany of the companies Iâve joined were developer products or products that were meant for teams, so I couldnât truly try the product myself, as Iâm not a developer or didnât have a team use case for it. So in general, I discount my own thoughts about a product in those cases.â
@seanrose told us that âin the earliest days of Slack, it was rough around the edges. To quote
@stewart, it was a "giant piece of shit." The bulk of the vision was there in that beta period from 2013 to 2014, but still awaiting refinement.â
3. Founders, over everything
@cjc (early Stripe, Notion, Linear): âThe founders (and early team)ânothing matters more than this to me. Iâm going to work hard, and I want to win, but I want to do it with people whom I want to see win too. When I joined Stripe, I joined more because I thought the people were special. I had more conviction about the company itself later.â
@seanrose (early Slack, Box, Meter): âQuality (and authenticity) of founders have always been the most important variable to me.â
@rsms (early Spotify, Figma, Dropbox): âPeople and mission. Who and why (not as much âhowâ).â
@bobmcgrewai (early Palantir, OpenAI): âThe common pattern was an incredibly ambitious goal combined with a credible team.â Thereâs that ambition again.
To close, in the words of
@cjc: âIf the three most important things in real estate are location, location, location, the three most important things in startups are people, people, people.â