The framing of the bond markets we get from politicians is totally mad. And shows how little they understand about the mechanics of how the nation finances its deficits.
They seem to think that the bond markets are essentially a small group of evil billionaires sat in a room scheming to influence public policy.
This is bullshit.
In reality, theyāre made up of people and institutions the government are asking to lend them money⦠pension funds, insurers, your granās retirement pot, the Bank of England, overseas central banks holding sterling, and so on. A lot of people are involved in these markets.
When politicians say theyāre āin hockā to the bond markets. What theyāre referring to is the fact that they borrow money from the market and have to pay bond holders back with interest. The participants in the market will buy bonds when the yield on the bonds adequately covers the perceived risk of holding the bonds, and provides a modest expected return to make it worthwhile.
Theyāre not scheming, theyāre just pricing inflation and interest rate risk. Our debt carries a higher risk premium than other core economies like Germany, because of specific structural problems and a credibility deficit on spending.
And a lot of that demand isnāt even a choice. Pension funds and insurers are required to hold gilts to match their liabilities. So your granās retirement pot is quietly propping up the very market these politicians claim to be fighting.
The supposed alternative is to balance the budget so you donāt need to borrow. If you donāt want to be āin hockā to the bond markets, donāt borrow money from them. Except even that wouldnāt free us, because we still have to roll over the existing debt as it matures. Escaping the market entirely would mean running surpluses for decades, which would take spending cuts or growth we havenāt got. So the government borrows.
And hereās the tell... a lot of politicians half admit it. Theyāll say, as Polanski does here, the markets ājust want to know thereās a plan.ā Yeah, absolutely. So the problem was never the market. Itās that our politicians havenāt got a credible plan.
So when you hear politicians complaining about the bond markets, what theyāre really complaining about is the fact that they canāt borrow endlessly to fund all the mad shit they want to do.