My biggest takeaway from the Claude Fable 5 release was that open source AI won't just survive, it'll thrive
The release itself told me everything about where the closed labs are heading:
i) cyber, bio, chem & distillation queries reroute to Opus 4.8, a weaker model
ii) the safeguards are tuned conservatively and by Anthropic's own admission catch harmless requests
iii) the ungated Mythos 5 ships only to approved orgs through Project Glasswing
iv) even gated access comes off subscription plans on June 23, moving to usage credits
Frontier capability is now allocated by approval status
I read every refusal, downgrade and capacity gate as a demand signal
Capital is already pricing it:
a) Manifold Labs, the team behind Targon, raised a $10.5M Series A
b) DCG anchored Yuma's asset mgmt. arm with $10M
c) Grayscale went from trust launch to spot ETF filing in 18 months, a path that took Bitcoin a decade
d) six institutional TAO vehicles now exist, none of them pre-date 2024
Bittensor launched in 2021 with no pre-mine, no VC allocation and no permission required
It has grown into one of, if not, the most active capital markets for open source AI with an incredibly diverse set of subnets solving different complex problems
The report below tracks the full history, from genesis to dTAO, to the pending ETF
This is a useful trip down memory lane, and a vital reference point for an ecosystem projected to be worth hundreds of billions, if not trillions, in the years to come
AI stocks outperformed every major index in 2025
Model development consolidated behind a few closed labs controlling the most capable models and the most valuable training data
A generation of crypto-native AI entrepreneurs chose an alternative path
Bittensor launched in January 2021 and is now the most developed public market for open-source AI intelligence
128 subnets with an aggregate market cap grew from $4M at launch to a peak of $1.5B
The market decides which subnets get fed with emissions flowing to subnets showing traction
Our latest report maps the three investment eras of Bittensor:
1) Era 1 - Genesis (2021-2024)
2) Era 2 - dTAO (2024-2025)
3) Era 3 - Institutional Era (2025 )
We also share a few subnets we are keeping a close eye on along with index options for those who want a hands off approach
Full report in the next post below