Fuel, fertilisers and forex are immediate external pressure points arising from global instability and affecting all nations.
Crude prices, fertiliser prices and forex volatility are “imported risks”. A responsible government flags them and acts on them. Pretending these are secondary issues shows how casually the Congress treats macroeconomic vulnerability.
On private investment, the argument is selective. Investment is driven by four things: demand, profitability, credit availability and policy confidence. On all four counts, the current evidence points towards strengthening fundamentals.
Actual private capex is visible. CII’s analysis of nearly 1,200 companies from the CMIE Prowess database showed private sector investment rising 67% year-on-year to ₹7.7 lakh crore in September 2025, from ₹4.6 lakh crore a year earlier. Manufacturing accounted for nearly half of this capex, with services also contributing strongly. Capacity utilisation rose to 75.6% in Q3 FY26, new order books grew 10.3% year-on-year, and bank credit growth strengthened in the second half of FY26.
Similarly, there is a deliberate attempt to mislead on FDI. Low net FDI does not automatically mean low foreign investor confidence. Gross FDI inflows in FY26 rose to around $94.5 billion, while net FDI increased six-fold compared to the previous fiscal year.
The flaw in the comparison is this: the pre-2014 “peak” private investment cycle was heavily debt-fuelled and ended in stalled projects, over-leveraged corporates, stressed banks and the NPA crisis. Using that peak as a benchmark without mentioning the balance-sheet damage it created is dishonest economics.
The banking system today is strong enough to finance growth. Public sector banks closed FY 2025–26 with gross NPAs at 1.93% and net NPAs at 0.39%, historically the lowest levels. Their gross advances grew 15.7% year-on-year to ₹127 lakh crore, with retail, agriculture and MSME advances growing 18.1%, 15.5% and 18.2% respectively. This is the opposite of an economy starved of credit.
Corporate profitability is improving, which is usually the precondition for a fresh investment cycle. A sample of 837 listed companies showed Q4 FY26 adjusted net profits rising to ₹3.24 trillion, up from ₹2.81 trillion a year earlier, while revenue rose to ₹28.65 trillion. Profit growth outpaced revenue growth, and margins reached their highest level in five years.
Indian companies investing abroad also cannot be lazily framed as a flight from India. A stronger Indian corporate sector will naturally acquire assets, build supply chains and expand market access abroad. That is a sign of globalising Indian enterprise. The real question is whether companies are also investing at home. The CII capex data, bank credit data, profit data and capacity utilisation data show that they are.
So the answer is simple: India is watching the 3Fs because external shocks must be managed carefully. Meanwhile, the domestic investment cycle is being supported by clean bank balance sheets, strong corporate profits, rising private capex, broad-based credit demand and record gross FDI inflows.
The Congress wants to convert every macroeconomic risk into a political slogan. The data does not support that alarmism.
The FM has said that the 3Fs—Fuel, Fertilisers, and Forex—-are matters of great concern.
But she forgets the all-important fourth F: Falling rates of private investment that have been in evidence these past few years. Net FDI flows have declined and private corporate investment as a % of GDP is at half the peak pre-2014 level. Indian businesses are seeking more predictable and profitable ventures abroad and Indian corporate personalities are taking up residence abroad.
Investment is as much a financial decision as it is driven by psychological factors. The lack of broad-based consumer demand growth has disincentivized companies from investing. Similarly, the overall atmosphere of threat, intimidation, and intrusiveness created by the Modi Government is a psychological deterrent, as is the know-it-all attitude and approach of the Modi Govt.
Winning elections through large-scale manipulation of electoral rolls is one thing. But recognising what really ails the economy with humility and sobriety and taking remedial actions is entirely another matter.