Head of Global China Program w/ @article19org. Cofounder/advisor @SafeguardDefend. Other stuff. He/him. @ mcaster. bsky. social

Joined January 2009
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Very excited to drop our long awaited report on #China's Digital Silk Road! We show how Beijing is seeking to create a China-centric global authoritarian alternative to digital governance norms, through examples in the Indo-Pacific article19.org/resources/chin…
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Michael Caster retweeted
Excited to share our new book, "Outsourcing Surveillance: Online Public Management in China", has just been published online @CUP_PoliSci . Available for free download in the next two weeks. We study outsourcing of digital surveillance by the Chinese Party-state to private enterprises and for-profit subsidiaries of state-owned corporations. We ask why, how, and what are the implications of outsourcing of digital surveillance to monitor and moderate online public discourse. An extension of my earlier research on OUTSOURCING REPRESSION to the digital realm. "The digital age has afforded autocrats new technologies of control, allowing them to co-opt, pre-empt and repress dissent. But, what if they lack the technical capacity to access digital tools of control? In what ways have digital technologies altered the way autocrats conduct statecraft? Based on an analysis of thousands of public procurement documents, and a dozen elite interviews with various stakeholders, we found that the Chinese state has outsourced various functions of online surveillance to private and for-profit arms of state-owned corporations. We found that outsourcing surveillance is intended to augment state technical capacity to moderate and fine-tune the conduct of digital repression. Outsourcing digital repression opens a Pandora's box of state-business collaborations. This Element contributes to the literature on outsourcing repression, state‒business relations, and conduct of digital statecraft." @munkschool @TorontoSRI @UofTArtSci cambridge.org/core/elements/…
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Michael Caster retweeted
Drawing is not only about expressing an opinion. Sometimes it means slowing down. Looking more carefully. Making visible the nuances in a world that seems willing to accept only black or white. channeldraw.org/2026/02/16/d…
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Michael Caster retweeted
NEW: The Pentagon accused some of China’s biggest companies including Alibaba, Baidu and BYD of supporting the Chinese military, doubling down on an earlier decision to label crown jewels of the country’s corporate world as threats to US national security: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Michael Caster retweeted
Beijing is officially weaponizing artificial intelligence to punish citizens for thoughts they have not even voiced yet. A bombshell New York Times report has unmasked a terrifying evolution in digital tyranny, detailing the shift from punishing dissent to predicting it before it happens. Analyzed by researchers at Vanderbilt University, a massive data leak from the Beijing-based tech firm Geedge Networks reveals that China is actively developing AI-driven predictive surveillance to neutralize political risks. The company has deep ties to Fang Binxing, the infamous father of China's Great Firewall, and is moving far beyond passive internet censorship into the realm of preemptive control. The leaked documents show that these new systems utilize Large Language Models to synthesize data at scale. By aggregating real-time internet browsing histories, tracking physical movements via cell tower records, and mapping out social media connections, the AI builds comprehensive citizen profiles. It then generates political risk scores to flag individuals who might become critics of the government, allowing the state to intervene based entirely on inferred intent rather than actual actions. This dystopian toolkit is already being exported as a commercialized service to authoritarian regimes aligned with Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative. The leak exposed that Geedge’s flagship product, which functions as the Great Firewall in a box, was deployed by the military junta in Myanmar to locate pro-democracy activists, block social media, and trigger regional internet blackouts that led to targeted arrests. Similar mass surveillance deployments capable of deep packet inspection and tracking citizen reputation scores have been uncovered in Pakistan and Kazakhstan. Fortunately, the leaked files also reveal a critical vulnerability in Beijing's digital panopticon. United States export controls on advanced semiconductors have successfully starved Geedge of the high-end computing power required to scale these predictive AI models. Forced to pivot to less efficient tech due to chip shortages, their progress has been significantly slowed. This serves as a stark reminder to Western policymakers that maintaining tight semiconductor sanctions is the primary line of defense keeping this predictive surveillance grid from expanding globally. #UnveiledChina #PredictiveSurveillance #DigitalAuthoritarianism #GeedgeNetworks #GreatFirewall #Geopolitics #AICensorship #NationalSecurity
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Michael Caster retweeted
Great profile of the prolific and fascinating Chinese social media poster/news source - Teacher Li (@whyyoutouzhele), by @LiYuan6👇 “He’s like the loudspeaker through which all the other voices” — Chinese voices — “come out into the world.” - @LauraHarth nytimes.com/2026/06/01/busin…
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Michael Caster retweeted
“Teacher Li” has become one of the most prominent targets of China’s #transnationalrepression campaign. Yet he continues documenting dissent, amplifying censored voices, and pushing back against authoritarian intimidation. Freedom House is proud to collaborate with Li Ying through the China Dissent Monitor to better inform the public about protest in China. Read this profile of Li Ying in @nytimes from @LiYuan6: nytimes.com/2026/06/01/busin…
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Michael Caster retweeted
Sharing a new paper on an understudied tool used by China's Ministry of Public Security to expand its global reach: formal law enforcement & security cooperation agreements. China has signed at least 205 of these since 2006: 170 bilateral, 35 multilateral. 1/n
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Michael Caster retweeted
Canada *still* not moving to pass the completed trade deal it finalized with Taiwan more than a year ago, presumably to avoid upsetting China. More background in this piece by @tchau01 from last October: asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad…
It's clear the Liberals are purposefully delaying the Canada-Taiwan trade framework under pressure from China. I asked Taiwan's representatives today — their response: the agreement is finished and 'the ball's in Canada's court.'
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Michael Caster retweeted
"India's wariness...reflects a broader concern: that Beijing seeks a unipolar Asia where it gets to set the terms." - @tanvi_madan, @BrookingsChina
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中国跨国镇压又添新证,保护卫士中国事务主任 Laura Harth 今天公开了一批针对她本人的 AI 生成色情伪图,并点名背后的操作者:与中国公安系统关联的境外影响力网络 Spamouflage。 这不是孤立事件。2022 年 9 月,保护卫士发布首份报告,揭露中国在 50 多个国家秘密设立的 100 多个"海外警察站"。针对该机构及其工作人员的抹黑行动,从同月开始,持续至今四年未停。指控的"罪名"从与三大洲政客的桃色绯闻、贪污、为外国情报机构工作,到恐怖主义,甚至非法狩猎野生动物,无所不包。 OpenAI 早在 2026 年 2 月已点名保护卫士是"中国工业化跨国镇压"的目标,操作账号与中国执法部门关联,同一网络也被用于抹黑日本首相高市早苗。Meta 将 Spamouflage 定性为全球最大隐蔽影响力行动,溯源至中国公安。美国司法部已就此起诉中国公安部 40 名官员。欧盟对外行动署、微软、Graphika、NewsGuard、澳大利亚战略政策研究所、自由之家、美国国务院均已具名记录这场行动。 民主国家已把深度伪造色情内容当作严肃问题立法应对:美国《Take It Down Act》、澳大利亚《刑法修正案》、英国、法国、韩国均已入罪。意大利总理梅洛尼本人遭深伪攻击后也推动了立法。但法律惩处的是制作者和传播者,而真正的源头:中国公安系统,至今未付任何代价,下一批伪造内容随时可以出炉。 Harth 选择把这些图公开,正是拒绝沉默。她指出:西方政府手里有归因、有报告、有自己机构出具的证据,缺的从来不是材料,而是政治意志。法国今年未能延续 G7 在反跨国镇压议题上的势头;2027 年轮值主席国意大利,是 G7 中唯一尚未启动相关讨论的国家,尽管该国今年初刚以国家安全为由驱逐了八名中国公民。 跨国镇压不只是异见人士的个人遭遇,更是一个政权对他国主权和公民安全的系统性侵犯。Harth 的呼吁很直接:提高跨国镇压这一议题的优先级! 原文链接👇 safeguarddefenders.com/en/bl…
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Michael Caster retweeted
🔔New .@chrdnet report documents children’s rights and labor rights violations in mandatory vocational school internships and hiring children under 16 to work across 11 provinces between 2019 and 2025. The findings are alarming 🆘 ! 👉 nchrd.org/2026/05/china-auth…
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Michael Caster retweeted
EXCLUSIVE: How the track foreigners in China - We got rare access to demo system developed by the Ministry of Public Security in China for the prefecture of Zhangjiakou, to track and surveil foreigners visiting or being residents ( actually it applies to most nationals as well, but in this case it seems to be aimed at foreigners ). It is officially known as "Dynamic control platform for overseas personnel". 1/12
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Michael Caster retweeted
Absolutely not surprising but a limited leak of a Chinese local surveillance platform drawing off an apparently large national one has a special drop down for tracking for tracking foreign journalists in China… including me. @NetAskari found the data open.substack.com/pub/netask…
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Michael Caster retweeted
Demo of a Chinese 🇨🇳 video surveillance portal that purports to track all foreign visitors, including journalists, integrating video feeds w other data (e.g., pictures from ski passes) to conduct mass surveillance & social network analysis 👇 netaskari.substack.com/p/sha…
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Fareed Zakaria has lost it in this latest oped. Abandoning democratic Taiwan as a bargaining chip with authoritarian China is not pragmatism! Zakaria also sprinkles in a little Uyghur genocide denialism for good measure.
President Trump’s foreign policy in his second term has been reckless, chaotic and deeply destabilizing. But he might well turn out to have the right instincts — and perhaps even the right policy — in one crucial arena: the U.S.-China relationship. My latest column: washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
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Michael Caster retweeted
Pleased to see that Anthropic's new policy paper on China cites the @ASPI_CTS China team's research as foundational evidence for their position. Links to Anthropic's paper and our research below
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Michael Caster retweeted
I’m in Taipei this week examining how shifting US-China relations are reshaping Taiwan’s business environment and the broader regional economy. I’ll be publishing takeaways for companies assessing supply chains, investment risk, and cross-border partnerships through @nuoraglobal's newsletter. Subscribe to receive the full report. nuoraglobaladvisors.substack…
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Learn more about how China's digital authoritarianism is impacting Iran in our latest Democracy's Horizons piece with @michaelcaster: thinkdemocracy.substack.com/…

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Michael Caster retweeted
NEW: If you or others around you have been the target of the CCP’s illegal transnational repression activities, take part in this global survey: let’s come together to collect the evidence to end the CCP’s climate of fear! Thx @whyyoutouzhele for this most precious collab! 🤜🤛
xn--7rs27sz3erxf535e.com/ 长期以来,中共当局通过跨国镇压,将它在中国境内的恐惧统治延伸到海外。 今年3月,意大利以国家安全理由驱逐8名涉嫌参与对李老师进行跨国镇压的中国公民。这是欧洲国家在应对中共跨国镇压问题上的一次重要行动。 也说明民主社会已经开始认识到:中共的跨国镇压,不只是海外中国人的私人困境,更是对民主国家主权、法治与公共安全的直接挑战。 在美国,司法部和 FBI 也已经采取行动。美国曾起诉涉嫌在纽约曼哈顿运营中共秘密海外警察站的人员,并指控多名中国公安部人员通过假账号、网络骚扰和威胁手段打压在美中国人和民主活动人士。美国政府已经把中共跨国镇压视为对美国主权和居民安全的威胁。 同样,德国、瑞典、英国等国家也开始积极展开针对海外侨民实施此类活动的个人进行了调查和起诉。 这些行动证明了一件事:只要我们把证据留下来,把案例讲出来,把零散的恐惧变成系统的记录,跨国镇压就不再是无法追责的黑箱。 这不只是针对少数异见者的个案。现如今越来越多普通海外中国人,也开始遭遇监视、威胁、骚扰、定向举报、社交平台封禁、银行账户冻结、家人被派出所约谈、被要求“回国配合调查”、参加集会时被拍照跟踪,甚至在民主国家境内仍然被迫自我审查。 基于我们自身长期遭受跨国镇压的经历,也基于许多海外中国人正在承受却难以说出口的恐惧,我们决定不再沉默。 今天,我们与保护卫士(@SafeguardDefend)合作,正式启动跨国镇压专题项目: xn--7rs27sz3erxf535e.com/ 这是一个面向海外中国人、留学生、移民、异见者、活动人士、记者及其家属的匿名案例收集项目。我们希望系统记录中共在海外实施跨国镇压的方式,包括但不限于: 派出所、国保或街道办联系国内家人,要求劝阻海外亲属发声; 海外人员被拍照、跟踪、威胁,或被要求参加“谈话”; 推特、YouTube、Instagram、TikTok 等账号遭到定向举报、封禁或人肉攻击; 银行账户、支付账户、国内资产或亲属生活受到威胁; CSSA、侨团、同乡会或其他组织参与反游行、盯梢、拍摄、施压; 被要求或胁迫配合亲共活动,向中国国内部门提供海外同学、朋友、社群成员的信息,或协助监视、举报、阻挠他人发声; 中国使领馆、海外警察站或相关人员介入骚扰、恐吓、信息收集; 因参与抗议、转发信息、接受采访、发布评论,而导致本人或家人在中国境内遭到报复; 被要求删除内容、停止发声、回国“说明情况”,或被暗示“不听话会有后果”。 我们收集这些案例,不是为了制造恐惧,而是为了终结恐惧。 所有提交内容都可以匿名。我们将尽最大努力保护提交者安全,并在去识别化、保护隐私的前提下,对案例进行整理、研究和国际倡导。相关资料将用于向媒体、人权组织、议会、政府机构和国际社会揭露中共跨国镇压的真实规模与具体手法。 每一份记录,都是一份证据。 每一次讲述,都是对沉默的突破。 每一个案例,都可能成为保护其他人的基础。 中共希望海外中国人在民主国家继续害怕、继续沉默、继续觉得“说了也没有用”。 但我们想说:从今天开始,我们不再把恐惧留给自己。 如果你或你身边的人曾经遭遇类似经历,请填写匿名问卷。 让我们一起记录中共伸向海外的黑手,揭露跨国镇压,捍卫民主社会的自由、安全与尊严。 xn--7rs27sz3erxf535e.com/
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