Putin thinks he's already won.
Today, he drank champagne, cheering: "For victory! Hurrah, hurrah!"
What kind of world does he live in and what reports reach him, exactly?
Russia will lose the war, but Ukraine has not yet won it. Even greater concentration and a further scaling up of efforts are needed.
What is happening now? Ukraine has turned the current phase of the war in its favor. We can now speak not only of parity, but also of the advantages Ukraine has created:
🔹 Ukraine is disrupting logistics to Crimea;
🔹 Ukraine is striking deep in the rear: targeting military infrastructure in the temporarily occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the occupied south, and Crimea;
🔹 Systematic Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries are being scaled up: main oil pipeline infrastructure, refining facilities, and secondary storage sites;
🔹 Ukraine is hitting Russia's shadow export fleet and ports with "direct sanctions";
🔹 Russia's air defense system is being depleted, increasing the operational effectiveness of Ukrainian Defense Forces;
🔹 Ukraine is expanding the scale and pace of its military-industrial complex, and tests of Ukrainian ballistic missiles are underway;
🔹 Ukraine has expanded the kill zone - in some areas to as much as 100 kilometers - limiting Russian advances, disrupting enemy logistics, preventing regrouping, and helping preserve the lives of Ukrainian Defenders;
🔹 The number of Russian soldiers killed each month continues to rise. Current estimates are around 35,000 per month, with the goal of increasing that figure to 50,000;
🔹 Ukraine maintains a technological advantage in the use of AI systems, modern communications, and reconnaissance.
At the same time, these advantages of Ukraine may be temporary - lasting up to six months - since Russia is not ready for negotiations or to end the war and is taking countermeasures:
◾️ Strengthening its air defenses;
◾️ Increasing the scale and intensity of retaliatory strikes;
◾️ Developing new generations of drones and creating countermeasures against Ukrainian Middle Strike capabilities;
◾️ Russian officials have repeatedly stated that they could target not only residential buildings, but also water supply and sewage systems in Ukrainian cities, which could destabilize the Ukrainian rear;
◾️ Russia continues to attack Ukrainian cities and kill civilians on a daily basis;
◾️ Russia continues to target Ukraine's railway transport system;
◾️ Moreover, within six months, Ukraine will face another winter, which may prove even harsher than the previous one;
◾️ The probability of Russia announcing a new mobilization remains high. And we must prepare for this.
The war has not yet been won. The most important thing is not to become overconfident. We must hold out longer than the enemy.
It is necessary to scale up what produces results, rely on statistics and data rather than emotions, avoid confusing tactical advantages with strategic ones, and anticipate future steps in technological innovation.
The rear must be strengthened - both technically and psychologically.
Our strength lies in our unity and resilience.