vibes say Fable will be back by end of week after Ant finds a workaround to whatever really got Amazon/AWS riled up. I expect we'll get a positive update tomorrow so long as Dario isn't asked to do something he disagrees with.

At this point I question if Dario can remain CEO if he can't navigate the environment in DC that he himself is largely responsible for creating. Not saying he was or wasn't right on the technical merits, but being technically correct is only part of resolving regulator concerns.

I feel like The Discourse on this keeps overlooking the potential significance of Amazon being the one to escalate this. Presumably they would not overreact to a jailbreak risk and, more importantly, would not underreact to a threat to AWS for Government.

Except that, credibly, Anthropic is neither value-aligned or safety-conscious. I don't think the values differentiation requires elaboration. On safety, I don't see OpenAI resorting to measures like what Ant just did in order to securely release a model. Why defer to that?

Anthropic is made up of people far smarter than me, so my following assessment is likely nonsensical but I'm holding to it until clearly proven otherwise: I don't think Claude is going to be fully cooperative with this vision.

it's a separate domain, but I tend to map model safety to these layers. The further down your measures are, the better. I'm not sure how Ant gets marks for safety when Fable's measures are heavy on controls while OpenAI seems to prioritize the passive/active. like, if the model's safeguards require more controls than why release it instead of using said model to expedite passive safeguard development to allow for a more secure release?

kinda wondering about that Collossus deal

My prediction as we wrap the first public day of the Mythos era is that Ant and OAI are at a strategic inflection point in the race. Ant's current lead and Mythos are a product of their laser focus on coding, but they are hamstrung by capacity and the relative token inefficiency of the models. Fable appears to double down on that, betting that the capability jump will outweigh the sticker shock. If Fable helps deliver the productivity gains businesses need to see to justify costs, then yes the lead feels theirs to lose. Emphasis on "feels". OAI's emphasis on relatively token-efficient frontier models, their abundance philosophy, capacity, and their refocus on coding had them basically on track to take the lead in vibes and business users until now. The question is, how has OpenAI chosen to respond? I state that in the past tense because I would be surprised if the training run of their response wasn't set in motion weeks ago. Do they focus on a Mythos level step change, potentially with compromises to their affordability focus? Do they aim lower than Mythos, looking to undercut Ant in the market to play the long game? Some mysterious third thing? I don't know what happens next, but it won't come down to what model makes the better SVG. Capital flows to the highest leverage. We've seen Ant's bet on where that is for the next phase of this race. Let's see where OAI and the remaining labs place theirs.

This is an interesting contrast that I am doubtful is coincidental.

the benchmark-obsessed still haven’t absorbed the lessons of o1 think of those accounts throwing tomatoes at old kings and crowning new ones every week, living for the next single-number decisive victory as the elonbucks roll in what if all that effort misses the point

Manufacturing reliability is an odd space. On the one hand, you have an incredible opportunity to leverage statistics, coding, and frontier engineering for real problems. On the flip side, you have some of the most stubborn mindsets you've ever seen refuse to move past Excel. It's difficult to say what the coming years will be like given the economic pressures across industries due to the continuing impacts of the Strait closure and inflation, but there is a strong bent for cost cutting even in the higher margin producers. It's like there's a sense that things are going to get tight due to world events, and much less certain due to AI and, eventually, robotics. I guess what I'm trying to voice is this sense that the takeoff is starting to shift the ground in the industrial sector. For those in it, it's going to be a wild ride.

Rich people who were too stupid to ride horses before are now transportation visionaries. And actually brilliant horsemen are made to feel obsolete and redundant. Meanwhile transportation has been synthesized into beige metal boxes fueled by liquefied dinosaur sludge and horsemen have to line up with a small bucket begging for their share from the automobile barons who, fortunately, at any given moment, can feel generous enough to pull a lever that makes a few gallons dribble out of a pump. Horsemen at these companies, who sit mere inches from the steering wheel, frequently bless us with thinkpieces that we too should be driving automobiles, and it's actually quite unfashionable not to do so. Of course none of this is so much transportation advice as it is financial advice. But sure, "wHy dO pEoPlE hAtE cArS?"