It’s the Great Sort! Rs are leaving CA and NY for “safe states” like Florida and Montana (cf. Tester-Sheehy), while college-educated D’s are moving toward urban areas with professional jobs including Texas.
NYT/Siena also conducted polls in Florida & Texas
While Harris predictably trails in both (and their Florida poll is a clear outlier), it points to a narrower Electoral College bias for Trump
Florida
🔴 Trump: 55% ( 13 rounded)
🔵 Harris: 41%
Texas
🔴 Trump: 50%
🔵 Harris: 44%