This piece is a crude recipe for global empire. It starts with a Schmittian elaboration: AI moves too fast, merits exceptional planning before their necessity or desirability can be established by democratic means. It follows with a concept of a nominally democratic bloc, within which power is centralized in a system of worldwide domination.
Dario is a comprehensive man. It is not fair to assume that he has simply ignored substantive issues by accident. For example, Dario spends many words on how, within his bloc, AI shouldn’t be used against the polity. But he never extends his prohibitions against violence to the periphery. The need for using AI in war, “as in Ukraine against Russia,” defensively, is floated. But Ukraine is a power fighting against an imperial conquest, and we are prescribing a policy for a dominant world coalition. Offensive uses are conspicuously ignored—yet surely a bloc with a decisive strategic advantage will consider prosecuting war. I don’t think it’s unfair to say that he is ducking the issue—use of force is obviously something he’s thought about.
War shows up tacitly though, in the effort to exclude the rest of the world from the AI supply chain. Dario demands that China in particular, due to the ‘non-democratic’ structure of its government, be prevented from developing any frontier-level AI systems. Should they not choose voluntarily to comply, accepting permanent economic irrelevance, does he not endorse, if not war against economic and military targets, then at least the case for it? And then also, the premise that it would be easy. And if we believe in a bloc with near-unlimited power, why would the old perversions of empire not return? When the bloc needs minerals to manufacture compute, do we believe they will approach the matter non-coercively?
All of this is justified through invocations of democracy. But the concessions to domestic masses Dario makes are concessions of noblesse oblige; he seems to believe that the structure he advocates lives outside the set of choices democratic systems are entitled to. At no point are actual democratic practices within the bloc described; we do not hear insistences that, for example, to be considered as democratic here, a state must fully enfranchise all its people. And the conceit that coalition members retain sovereignty over internal affairs, in addition to again repeating a Schmittian logic, proposes a bounded sovereignty, where all is on the table except for the matters of concern for our age. The coalition is one of nominally democratic states, but it is not a democratic structure. And even that minor wrinkle is in practice unlikely to be substantive—do we really believe that we’ll see something other than a map of existing US allies?
Anthropic is well aware of the historic parallels to the atomic bomb; they imagine themselves, collectively, as Oppenheimers. Dario makes it’s easy to think the regret they would hold lies not in the horrors of Hiroshima or Nagasaki, but instead, in Harry Truman’s failure to start a nuclear war with the USSR, to destroy their industrial capacity while the atomic advantage existed. We should be wary of his prescriptions.
Today I'm publishing a new essay, Policy on the AI Exponential. AI is progressing extremely fast—much faster than the policy process was built to handle. The essay lays out where I think the technology is now, and the action needed to close the gap:
darioamodei.com/post/policy-…