Joined June 2015
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chrisea retweeted
24 Dec 2024
What did we learn from this @Polymarket
"Will there be a US Government shutdown?"
Here are some key facts and misinterpretations made and decided upon by Polymarket in this situation:
Deadline Was a Formality :
the deadline was originally formalized when Biden signed the extension on September 26th, shifting the timeline forward.
There was no Shutdown:
the entire purpose of a deadline is to prevent a shutdown by ensuring funding continuity.
Since no shutdown occurred and bill was signed, the deadline was met , it’s final.
The market resolution was disputed twice,
according to Polymarket, it was clarified internally to UMA that this market should resolve as YES.
This means a centralized entity instructed the oracle to declare the outcome. What does this teach us ? It reveals that the claim of Polymarket being entirely public consensus driven is misleading.
As we’ve seen here, this is not accurate.
The oracle in this context serves as a formality, a mechanism to give voters the illusion of fairness and reliability.
What’s the purpose of an oracle if its role is just to formalize decisions already influenced by internal clarifications ?
It diminishes trust and the integrity of the platform.
See you on the next one 🫡
23 Dec 2024
"President Joe Biden on Thursday (26 September 2024) signed a temporary government spending bill that keeps agencies operating into December, after Congress punted key spending decisions until after the November election."
That was the actual Deadline.
This 20th deadline in December was voted by then from CR ..
Means , there is no way ppl could've known the Deadline in the "additional context", which was added after.
(Market was up 4th September)
@hal2001 @shayne_coplan @Polymarket (last tag & post about this)
apnews.com/article/biden-spe…
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chrisea retweeted
24 Dec 2024
the white house, the press and the world say:
there is NO GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN in 2024
@Polymarket says:
there 100% is a government shutdown in 2024
lesson:
prediction markets are not as great as everyone thought during the elections due to oracle manipulation
23 Dec 2024
in 14 hours @Polymarket will officially claim that "there was a US government shutdown"
- every other news outlet, prediction market and the white house itself claim that there was NO government shutdown
- the only argument that UMA whales (oracle) are focussing on is that joe signed the bill to avert the shutdown 38 min after the "deadline"
- every normal person just agrees with the global consensus that there was NO shutdown and that the deadline argument is a minute detail. after all, the white house is listed as a source for truth and the white house says NO SHUTDOWN
- can someone look into UMA voters please? people in the comments say that over 50% of UMA votes on this market are controlled by 4 individuals who are all huge whales of YES --> conflict of interest
- resolving bets is difficult. wording is very important. but in this case it feels like fraud that a small group of voters are going against GLOBAL CONSENSUS and claim that the us had a government shutdown when no one else thinks that
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chrisea retweeted
23 Dec 2024
Welcome to a new #PolyScam shit show by @Polymarket (💩)
This is the event in question: polymarket.com/event/us-gove…
The bet concerns “The US Government shutdown” (as stated in the title) between August 30 and December 31, 2024.
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14 hours until we find out if @Polymarket is indeed a fair betting platform
history is being made
23 Dec 2024
in 14 hours @Polymarket will officially claim that "there was a US government shutdown"
- every other news outlet, prediction market and the white house itself claim that there was NO government shutdown
- the only argument that UMA whales (oracle) are focussing on is that joe signed the bill to avert the shutdown 38 min after the "deadline"
- every normal person just agrees with the global consensus that there was NO shutdown and that the deadline argument is a minute detail. after all, the white house is listed as a source for truth and the white house says NO SHUTDOWN
- can someone look into UMA voters please? people in the comments say that over 50% of UMA votes on this market are controlled by 4 individuals who are all huge whales of YES --> conflict of interest
- resolving bets is difficult. wording is very important. but in this case it feels like fraud that a small group of voters are going against GLOBAL CONSENSUS and claim that the us had a government shutdown when no one else thinks that
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Attention @FoxNews @joerogan @PhillyD @Reuters - @Polymarket's latest move echoes Robinhood & GameStop! A $14M bet on gov't shutdown saw terms changed last minute from Dec 31 to Dec 20, 2024, protecting "whales" after a bill passed. Did @Polymarket favor big bets, leaving small traders in the dust?
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chrisea retweeted
22 Dec 2024
$21.8 million at risk
- yesterday sleepy joe passed the bill to AVOID a government shutdown
- every single news outlet, journalist and the white house say: THERE IS NO SHUTDOWN
- other prediction markets like @Kalshi say: NO SHUTDOWN
- only @Polymarket has a 99% of YES shutdown
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chrisea retweeted
21 Dec 2024
Scam!! How can you let someone change the “outcome” after the the close? Rules were clear and simple… #polymarket
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chrisea retweeted
22 Dec 2024
kalshi resolved the identical bet as NO
polymarket resolves it as YES
these are opposing statements, only one of them can be true
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chrisea retweeted
22 Dec 2024
The Polymarket Drama: Act II
let me start by saying: i didn't choose the thug life, the thug life chose me. i have 0 skin in the game on this bet, but people in the comments were calling for me to write about it, so here we are.
the original rules are: the bet should resolve to NO if biden signs the relevant bill to provide further funding until 2025, deadline 31 dec 2024.
this happened yesterday, there is no dispute about it. i put the official press release into the first comment. biden signed the bill, every single news outlet is reporting it.
however, this bet is still at 99% YES. why?
because 2 days ago, polymarket arbitrarily added an addition to the rule: the signing needed to happen BEFORE 20 dec 2024. they added this rule months after the bet already started.
people in the comments are going crazy, threatening to sue polymarket etc.
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chrisea retweeted
21 Dec 2024
@Polymarket why is there is a difference? kalshi is right
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chrisea retweeted
24 Sep 2024
The ultimate noise cancellation
23 Sep 2024
Someone's Galaxy Buds FE exploded in their ear, resulting in permanent hearing loss.
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chrisea retweeted
10 Jul 2024
🥱❌An inside joke gesture towards my close friends from Netherlands. Nothing but respect for how Zwayer manipulated the game tonight.🤝
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Apple Maps went all out for the #SuperBowl
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Digital Pop! Turns 2 #Giveaway 4 of 5
Enter to win one Egg Redemption Token from Funko April Fools 2023!
How to enter (today only)
🥚Like & Retweet
🥚Follow us
🥚Sign up & subscribe to our emails on Droppp.io
@OriginalFunko #digitalpopturns2 #droppp #funko
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chrisea retweeted
22 Aug 2023
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chrisea retweeted
15 Aug 2023
New Linus Tech Tips vid just dropped. Interesting title...
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