since this comes up every few months, a refresher:
- first, there *is* a way to prove the bug wasn't exploited, more on this below
- the fundamental tradeoff in a strict privacy pool is that if there's a bug, it could be utilized without immediate detection. this is the same for almost all privacy protocols without audit keys and with circuits
- it's similar to any other crypto bug, like defi, in that something could be exploited and moved to a different chain. there are bugs lurking all over defi, blockchains, and all software at all times. the difference is that given the privacy, it's obviously harder to detect timely
- note that this has always been the case with any of these things (and zcash isn't unique here, the other notable privacy project you're thinking of also has the risk of counterfeit bugs), so nothing is "new" except for the fact that understandably not everyone knows the technical tradeoffs
- in zcash, you have guardrails to detect this so the supply would never increase past 21M *but* the ppl in that pool would get shafted unless there's social consensus, which would admittedly be messy
- recently, the zcash core teams have been increasingly using advanced tools and hiring external security firms to audit themselves to keep improving security
- this is also why it's harder than it sounds to just add privacy to an L1 or L2 (without audit keys) because you want a high concentration of security researchers and cryptographers looking at this at all times. it's also why "dino" projects are interesting because they've survived this long.
- now with this new effort, one of these was a hit and the team immediately patched the bug they found
- you can be reasonably sure that it wasn't exploited given a number of signals, but you can't definitively prove it unless either:
i) the turnstile is triggered
ii) the wallets start pointing to a new pool to migrate (there have been 3 such migrations in the past for example) which would then prove this
luckily, there has been work on creating a new pool that's provably sound, formally verified, and quantum proof this whole time with
@TachyonZcash (which is also how I first got introduced to zcash)
so once that migration is done, you will have full certainty