Bad day to be a $USD.

As America cements its position as the crypto capital of the world, clear rules of the road for software developers are critical. Today’s staff no-action letter delivers long overdue clarity for non-custodial digital wallet software providers.

Nice idea but Muni CDS is basically non-existent. Super thin and usually bespoke contracts. Minnesota GO is AAA-rated. Muni CDS doesn’t function like Corporate IG/HY CDS.

Don’t get too involved in FX these days (because it’s boring) but seeing all the calls for lower USDJPY on account of the BoJ The driver for lower USDJPY most likely comes from the Fed rate cutting cycle driving broader dollar weakness plus the cheaper costs of hedging incentivising Japanese lifer and pension funds to increase hedge ratios THERE WILL BE NO JPY CARRY TRADE UNWIND The big Japanese investors won’t materially adjust portfolios, just adjust fx hedges However, be inclined to fade lower USDJPY on account of the BoJ hiking The BoJ are in an impossible situation and every hike which pressures the bond market raises the chances of the BoJ simultaneously needing to step up purchases of JGB’s to “smooth” bond volatility Furthermore, Japan have pi5sed China off with the naive comments from the new PM on defending Taiwan China will weaponise JGB’s as a result, selling them in the way they sold UST’s after Pelosi crossed a red line by going to Taiwan Either way, BoJ hikes are coming for the “wrong” reasons as they’re battling stagflation (largely as a result of spiralling rice prices) Certainly, this toxic mix is not going to encourage a large repatriation trade In fact, more likely to encourage flows the other way and greater exposure to US assets USDJPY then we think will continue to go higher and think we see USDJPY at 200 over the next year The BoJ will have to sacrifice the currency to save the bond market That will trigger flows INTO US assets, not out of them Rather than get involved in FX, still think you stay long Nasdaq and of course Bitcoin The big “carry unwind” the usual macro bears call for is not only not going to happen, but the domestic flows from Japan into foreign (particularly US) assets are likely to accelerate

Great article deconstructing the Poverty Line and the real cost of participation in American Society, along with impacts to the American Deal and its effects on the electorate: yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my…

Fantastic convo between @RyanSAdams & @crossbordercap on latest @Bankless pod

Is this time different? Let’s explore the 3 most recent analogs for when the Fed stimulated into similar macro conditions (1984, 1989, and 2007) In all 3 prior periods we had a setup of Fed reducing rates into: -stock markets around ATHs -gold around ATH -growth was positive -inflation higher than target In 1984 and 1989 after the Fed began stimulating we saw a melt up on the stock markets ( 52% and 25% respectively on the S&P after 24 months) while gold mostly moderated after a big run up preceding the Fed stimulus 2007 was the outlier with a stock market meltdown (-27% in the S&P 24 months later) while gold surged 43% Anyone who’s watched The Big Short knows why 2007 was different, and I acutely remember it as a consultant working on Goldman’s risk team in 07-08 The massive US housing bubble and associated intertwined leverage in the system made that time unique But this time we have arguments for an AI infra bubble that is showing signs of intertwined leverage 🤔 So the key question is - do we go the path of 84/89 and enjoy a melt up, or do we go the way of 07 and suffer a melt down? That all depends on whether we enter a credit crisis, so all eyes need to be on the early warning signs I don’t think the recent commotion in the repo markets is the canary in the coal mine, at least not yet, and broader credit markets still look pretty good So for the time being, I’m leaning more towards a melt up, and what we should be paying attention to are real interest rates If real rates compress as bank reserves expand, that should provide the fuel for the melt up scenario and I expect crypto to follow (BTC and some tagalong from majors and select alts, but not all your shitcoins - sorry no alt szn is coming) TLDR; too early to tell if we do a melt up or melt down so pay attention to credit market weakness and real rates for early signals but for now the melt up is the highest probable outcome imo

I say this as someone who was speaking nearly every day with Kevin at some point on LUNA falling, and works in distressed Zero. That is the chance you get an “unwind.” These vehicles can run to 0.1x mNAV and there is nothing shareholders can do anything about it. At a significant enough discount a competing business can offer to buy the treasury out. In fact the very LPs that contributed to the PIPE may do that. You could get a big sell off in the actual equities themselves. But that contagion doesn’t necessarily spread to the underlying assets bc there is no forced estate sale from a liability management POV. The more realistic scenario is that these vehicles just stop doing anything, and equity is held captive like a GBTC situation If you are hoping for a contagion style blow up in the underlying reserve asset - you will likely be waiting a while. SBET has been below 1.0x NAV for under a month now. You would think they would stop pressing the ATM then right to maintain equity value? WRONG. They continue to press

ETH is starting to trade more like BTC: Citi data here show its beta to ETF flows is accelerating.

Finally - and done the right way. The team behind WCM are some of the most talented, upstanding people I’ve ever encountered. Psyched for the success this project is about to have.

Only solvent nations can truly be sovereign nations.

First glimpse of @AlphaPulseAI, powered by @Aicceleratedao. The goal is one-stop crypto intelligence & execution. Pulling data from crypto twitter, github, our proprietary crypto-optimized database with more integrations to come. Featuring @cryptopunk7213 @0xjeff @0xelonmoney @0xsammy.

The White House is pleased to announce its support for the CRA introduced by @SenTedCruz and @RepMikeCarey to rescind the so-called Broker DeFi Rule, an 11th hour attack on the crypto community by the Biden administration.

"Case dismissed." Two words that every defendant in every case yearns to hear. Today we can announce upon full Commission approval @SECGov is dropping our case. There will be no settlement or compromise-- a wrong will simply be made right. 1/4

Nic Carter, the people’s champ 🥊

Drop below what real problems you want AI agents to solve for you @near_ai will incubate them all 👇

Congrats on the DAO! As the manager of the longest-running Liquid Venture crypto fund, @HylaFunds is throwing our hat into the ring for a partnership with @aicceleratedao. We bring strategic value across: A) Dealflow & Development – Our team comprises crypto x AI pioneers working to foster AI that benefits humanity, with Hyla’s @jfhaft co-founder of the Decentralized AI Society @DaisGlobal, Hyla GP @AniCHonan co-founder of the Imagine $1B AI & deep tech fund, Hyla CIO @ahoppin founding member @metropolis_dao and Director of the @ehfnewzealand Edmund Hillary Fellowship, Hyla’s @Matt_McKibbin co-founder of @DecentraNet, and Hyla CEO @paolaorigel CoinDesk contributing author. Together we will source AI builders globally and connect them with the resources and intelligence of the DAO. B) Distribution & Marketing - Our fund’s portfolio and allocation pipeline comprises more than 100 specialist investment teams managing multiple billions across AI, crypto and traditional finance, including @ContangoDigital, @I_D_Theory, and @ImagineGlobalIo, as well as @26cryptocapital itself). We will serve as a match-maker for DAO incubated projects to source values-aligned next-stage capital and resources from aligned investment teams. We are excited by the opportunity to contribute to the collective expertise and impact of @aicceleratedao !

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In my opinion, $NEAR's Chain Abstraction Chain Signatures Intents is a game changer. This is definitely going to unlock a whole new array of use-cases thereby driving growth and mainstream adoption even further. @NEARProtocol is lightyears ahead in terms of techstack. Not a single L1 comes even close.

Welcome to the new members of America's most pro-crypto Congress ever... 219 pro-crypto candidates and counting have now been elected to the House & Senate. Tonight the crypto voter has spoken decisively - across party lines and in key races across the country. Americans disproportionately care about crypto and want clear rules of the road for digital assets. We look forward to working with the new Congress to deliver it. Thank you to everyone who stood with crypto today. We did it! #StandWithCrypto