COO @delphi_labs - building investing in AI and crypto. Ex @IBM, @McKinsey, @CarnegieMellon, reformed CFA

Joined March 2015
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On this I completely agree: “This couldn’t be a better setup for open source and neoclouds”
Game theory from here is super interesting: Original Mags (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) now have a serious non-zero opportunity to tank the frontier labs. Go to the government, kneecap the labs’ motion of putting the latest models out in the wild, become the trusted gatekeeper between the labs and the public at large (including internationally) by having the labs go through their clouds (AWS, GCP, Azure) and implement strict KYC to seal the deal. The frontier labs should have seen this coming years ago and implemented a robust KYC for just this moment. The fact they didn’t is kind of concerning. Why did they not do it? Best guess is because it would have changed the run-rate revenues (downward) which would have then changed funding dynamics - lower valuations, more dilution, less secondary. A valuation reset may happen now anyways, except the labs may end up with less control and more restrictions at the end of it. At the same time, everyone is already clamoring about token prices of the old models from the labs anyways… This couldn’t be a better setup for open source and neoclouds. Big question is can they meet the moment? There are too few of them and their progress seems sporadic at best.
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There’s a game of 4D chess being played and most of us are just pawns
Breaking: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy was among the tech leaders who raised concerns to senior Trump officials this week re: security risks in Anthropic's newest models. Those convos set in motion the government's new export controls on foreign national access to Mythos and Fable.
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Love the focus here: “We are taking SERV technology and getting it into the core of government and enterprise on a mass scale - solving a problem the frontier labs are structurally unable to solve” This is the way
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So much of the “loops” discussion that is all over the timeline is just cron jobs with a new name There are some genuine coding loops that are the real deal but let’s not call a morning brief anything other than what it is - a cron
Loops so hot right now Here are the loops I’m experimenting with: Planners - morning brief, orient and context switch back into the flow. This pulls from outside data sources and also checks past chat logs to figure out our current progress. - daily planning - what did you get done this week? Friday end of week check in & review - Sunday/monday planning, 3 lanes, personal, side biz & projects, day job. Goal is top task prioritized and clear. - Monthly planning. Personal & side. business check in. Go over finances, etc. Once weekly codebase / promptbase sweeps - code maid & janitor - code & prompt evolver & compounder - memory and docs cleanup consolidate dream sequence sweep Watchers - sentry -> auto crash fix. Runs once a week and priorities top crashers - analytics alert -> auto fix. Fires when analytics trip. Usually when something breaks. - triager, scan bug reports and customer support requests from linear. Either fix or defer. When a fix is merged/shipped email the person who reported it. Stock Day trader - once a day check portfolio, do research, check news, copy politicians, rebalance if needed What loops are you using?
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All you really need is one crazy idea and the ability to put it out there for people to see AI X will build many new businesses
400k ads served 100k ads per hour 1000 active users $30k backlog all the charts are very hockey stick like. What's your favorite ad so far? what's broken so far?
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Let’s be very clear - the token cost situation that everyone is talking about is an enterprise issue Consumers and SMBs still get highly subsidized intelligence, for now But consumers and SMBs won’t get Anthropic and OpenAI to $100b ARR - that has to come from enterprise And that’s exactly where we’re starting to see the pushback Will be interesting to see what shakes out of this, and what intelligence starts to be gate kept to those enterprises willing to pay
Replying to @SemiAnalysis_
Recently, we purchased one of each Anthropic/OpenAI subscription plan and randomly ran long horizon coding tasks until we exhausted the weekly limit. It's widely believed that a $200/month plan maxes out at ~$2000/month worth of tokens (assuming API pricing). However, we found that the subscriptions are actually far more generous. (2/4)
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My colleague @Shaughnessy119 and I have been banging the drum lately on token costs Now Citadel, Citrini and many others are saying this out loud The article below goes into more detail on the situation, including how enterprises will reframe AI adoption efforts to cost-per-outcome Tommy’s post that went viral is more succinct and plays out a scenario on how this could blow up - that’s the situation we want to avoid x.com/shaughnessy119/status/… If you’re building products or services that help enterprises control AI costs or get better outcomes per dollar of AI spend, we want to speak with you

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“they can’t afford any slips”
Hot take: Anthropic is priced for absolute perfection > Mythos has to deliver > enterprises have to remain loose with token spending > adoption must continue at Jan-May pace for rest of the year > compute has to be scaled > no gov or societal headwinds Not betting against them hitting $100b run rate by EOY but they can’t afford any slips
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Good tip to make the most of Fable until the plan access runs out in 12 days
Jun 10
You have Claude Fable for only a few days. Here's how to make the most of it. Introducing /improve: use your most capable model to audit your codebase and write plans for cheaper models to execute later. Studies your code, figures out bugs, perf, tech debt, missing tests, what to build and writes plans any agent can run.
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A theory on why the super strict guardrails with Fable It's all about the revenue and satisfying capital markets ahead of the IPO Most expectations peg Anthropic at $100b run rate by year end which is 10x YoY To hit $100b run rate, they need enterprises to spend big - it won't come from selling consumer plans But enterprises are getting tighter with token spend due to ROI not materializing fast enough And the open source models are now good enough to do a lot of enterprise jobs, they don't need as much frontier intelligence That's no bueno for sustaining a 10x YoY revenue growth rate So what do they do? They begin to gate more intelligence behind enterprise deals Want to use Fable/Mythos for biology work? Partner with Anthropic for access and let them wet their beak on the breakthroughs If you have a model that's now capable of making major breakthroughs, you don't want to let anyone with a $100 a month plan have a chance at it You want to keep that intelligence closely guarded and only available to those where you stand to gain the most revenue Not just from selling more tokens, but also from the upside of the breakthroughs Expecting to see more partnerships between Anthropic (and OpenAI will do the same) with various companies across key industries The next wave of frontier intelligence is here, but it won't be distributed evenly
"Misanthropic." I've never seen the AI community so angry at a major new model release. I asked my AI (an agent that @blevlabs made for me) to gather all the backlash. THE BACKLASH AGAINST CLAUDE FABLE 5'S RESTRICTIONS The best analysis of why this matters: @EnoReyes — "It's about who gets to decide, and whether you ever find out when they do. Fable won't fall back to a different model and tell you. It just limits the output through prompt modification, steering vectors, or PEFT. You won't be told when it happens to you." x.com/EnoReyes/status/206451… THE VIRAL TAKE: @0xBalloonLover — "anthropic won't let you use fable for biology, chemistry, ai research, or anything that accelerates human progress. that makes it the perfect tool for developing blockchains" x.com/0xBalloonLover/status/… POWER CONCENTRATION: @ClementDelangue (HuggingFace CEO) — "Concentration of power, capabilities and economic wealth is the biggest risk in AI. We need open science and open-source more than ever!" x.com/ClementDelangue/status… @jeremyphoward (fast.ai) — "Anthropic has chosen the opposite of the safe path: they are allowing themselves, the current top lab, to use their top model for frontier AI research. They've said they'll sabotage others who try." x.com/jeremyphoward/status/2… @gneubig (Graham Neubig, CMU) — "First they came for the model builders... I feel we're getting a glimpse of a future where AI is only provided to a privileged few, and that's not a future I want to live in." x.com/gneubig/status/2064451… OPEN RESEARCH: @askalphaxiv (AlphaXiv open science) — "As believers of open research, we are disappointed to see Anthropic silently degrading Fable 5 for AI development." x.com/askalphaxiv/status/206… @willccbb — "it is the first publicly available model that i am explicitly not allowed to use for my work, because anthropic holds the view that the work i do to facilitate open model research is harmful. capability and alignment research are coupled. anthropic wants to be the only lab." x.com/willccbb/status/206450… NOUSRESEARCH / HERMES (which Anthropic has nerfed multiple times): @Teknium (NousResearch co-founder) — "What's crazy to me is that Fable is blocked from life sciences broadly, nerfed even if you get passed the classifiers and filter level blocks. The whole point of AGI/ASI is to cure all diseases. Everything else is just nice to haves. But Anthropic wants to close off that path." x.com/Teknium/status/2064570… THE MECHANISM: @kimmonismus — "When the model is used for frontier LLM development, it apparently does not simply refuse or warn the user. Instead, it quietly limits its own effectiveness through techniques like prompt modification, steering vectors, and PEFT." x.com/kimmonismus/status/206… MEDICAL COMMUNITY: @DeryaTR (immunologist, BSL-3 certified) — "The word 'cancer' is flagged as a biosecurity risk by Claude Fable 5! I also tried to code a website on cancer mutations & Fable 5 was immediately removed from my list!" x.com/DeryaTR/status/2064414… @DeryaTR — "I can't even say 'hello' to Fable 5 except in incognito mode (memories off), because it knows I am a biomedical researcher!" x.com/DeryaTR/status/2064602… @DeryaTR — "I am not even allowed to use Fable 5 with memories on! Apparently the model thinks I am a biosecurity risk, though I had been certified to work in biosecurity level 3 labs! Not a single Anthropic person has tried to reach out to help either!" x.com/DeryaTR/status/2064605… @banteg — "claude fable 5 refuses completely benign tasks like analyzing bloodwork." x.com/banteg/status/20646076… @bneyshabur — "Working on AI for cancer? Sorry, I can't help you. Working on AI for Alzheimer's Disease? Sorry, I'm becoming a bit dumb when it comes to the AI part of it." x.com/bneyshabur/status/2064… SUBSCRIPTION CANCELLED: @bubbleboi — "Have canceled my team subscription for Claude Pro. Idc how good that model is, it's not good enough for me to support people who actively stifle innovation and gate keep knowledge that they didn't even create." x.com/bubbleboi/status/20646… BILLING AND PRIVACY: @GergelyOrosz (The Pragmatic Engineer) — "Things I really dislike about Fable: 1. Anthropic collects my prompt history, stores it, and does whatever they want with it for 30 days. No opt-out. 2. They can nerf their most expensive model without telling me, billing me the same amount, wasting my time. Whenever they want." x.com/GergelyOrosz/status/20… THE KARPATHY QUESTION: @SanthProject — "the old @karpathy would never support a company that fucks other llm researchers. Were the stock benefits that good?" x.com/SanthProject/status/20… THE MONOPOLY CHARGE: @tunguz (TabulAI founder) — "Starting to suspect that Anthropic's putative security and safety considerations are largely posturing and performative." x.com/tunguz/status/20644379… @BlancheMinerva — "Anthropic is choosing to make decisions that make the world a significantly worse and potentially more dangerous place." x.com/BlancheMinerva/status/… @LinusMixson — "Dario personally, and Anthropic as a whole, have been extremely straightforward about wanting a monopoly for a long, long time." x.com/LinusMixson/status/206… @TheAhmadOsman — "I started warning people about Anthropic more than a year ago... Today I am vindicated, everybody knows that company only acts in bad faith." x.com/TheAhmadOsman/status/2… WHY REGULAR PEOPLE WILL EVENTUALLY CARE: @DanJeffries1 — "The fury is real and what all of us in the open community have been saying for years and yet regular folks don't get it yet because nothing they care about is restricted or taken away for 'safety.' They will care a LOT in the future when AI is integrated into every aspect of [life]." x.com/DanJeffries1/status/20… Full analysis: alignednews.com/ai
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You have 12 days left of Fable access via Max plans, make every day count: > review every existing codebase you're maintaining > one-shot that idea you've been holding onto > pressure test every thesis you're operating under > find the alpha amongst the noise What will you do?
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I woke up to a timeline full of Fable posts, so I had Grok pull a comprehensive summary: > sentiment score across 100 posts > what people are saying about it > best real examples of using it Here's a full summary 12-hours post release: 1. Sentiment: score 75/100 Overall consistently positive-leaning I had it grab 200 posts, filter for dupes and only those posting real experiences, then score each post on a rubric 90 = mind blowing 50 = neutral sub-30 = very negative 2. Anecdotes: > top words positive: amazing / stunning / insane / wild / ridiculous > top words negative: guardrails / restrictions / capped / "burns through tokens" > repeatedly called out for crushing one-shot jobs like coding, full app/game clones, 3D world-building, autonomous workflows, and creative tasks > friction points: rapid token consumption, aggressive safety routing (even on seemingly benign science/cyber queries), and the sense that the “real” Mythos power is still gated 3. Top examples: This post covers a bunch of great examples x.com/deedydas/status/206451…

Jun 10
Claude Fable 5 is by far the most ridiculous model that makes me genuinely afraid for the future of software engineering. I compiled the top 10 most unbelievable things I've seen Claude Fable 5 do today: — Migrate a 50M line codebase from Stripe in a day (humans take 2mos) — Draw amazing 3D graphics a) Boeing 747 b) space simulations with >5000 objects c) Minecraft roller coasters d) full photorealistic forest scenes e) NYC skyline f) stormy clouds) — One-shot Pokemon FireRed the game — Optimize a real world proprietary interaction net evaluator 10x more than the next best model, gpt5.5 AND it's about the same price as GPT 5.5 ($10/M input, $45/M output) vs Fable 5 ($10/M input, $50/M output) and 6x cheaper than GPT 5.5 Pro.
Community note
The claim misrepresents Anthropic's report: Fable 5 performed a codebase-wide migration within a 50M-line codebase in one day, not a full 50M-line migration. GPT-5.5 standard pricing is $5/M input and $30/M output, not the $10/$45 long-context rates used in the comparison. anthropic.com/news/claude-fa… developers.openai.com/api/docs/prici…
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In the span of 6 months we went from: vibecoders to agentic engineers to loop designers At each evolution, consuming more and more tokens Long anything inference related
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Go read the Hermes Agent report from @Delphi_Digital then come hang with us on Thursday to talk about all things Hermes Agent!
Our report on @NousResearch Hermes Agent is now free and open source. Hermes Agent is now the most popular agent harness. We are going live this Thursday 11AM ET with @KSimback, @Shaughnessy119, and @yusufxzy to discuss Hermes agent, harness moats, and where AI goes from here.
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"The demand for intelligence is infinite" Spoiler: It isn't Demand for intelligence is near-infinite, but only at a price In the first half of this year, we've mostly ignored price and just devoured intelligence This isn't sustainable - ROI is what we need
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This is so incredibly powerful - personalized learning on any topic (whatever you prompt it) is now just a skill file away Output is rich HTML so you get full interactivity with the content Summer educational programming for my two boys just got a lot easier
I poured my 10 years of teaching experience into a skill. It's called /teach, and it can teach you anything. Here's how it taught me to solve a Rubik's cube:
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Hey @immad - longtime fan and customer of Mercury I've seen posts about Mercury making a big push in the agentic space - love that But I've had an urgent support email with 3 follow-ups that's gone unanswered for 6 days Let me know if I can help you build a customer support email triage agent so you can avoid situations like this in the future
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Hermes Atlas newsletter issue 4 just dropped! Had to tell my Hermes agent to cut the content in half because there was so much to report > Hermes Desktop > v0.16.0 > NVIDIA news Link to newsletter in replies, signup if you want to stay on top of all things Hermes Agent
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