Highly unusual storm system ... but taking enormous tropical moisture w/weak low pressure frontal boundary = plenty of convergence, upper-level energy to provide a "baroclinic" energy pathway even over land. 30% chance of TD 01L (then Arthur) but technically a name doesn't matter as the IMPACTS will be substantial regardless

A tropical system will form along/near the coast of South Texas by Tuesday (30% chance) and then combine with a frontal boundary while heading through the Southeast. This hybrid structure --> TD/TS intensity while over land into next weekend. --> boatloads of rain 🚣

The National Hurricane Center has increased chances of a depression or tropical storm forming in the NW Gulf later this week. Interests in Texas & Louisiana should monitor the progress of this disturbance. First name on the list is #Arthur. #tropicalupdate 🍋🌀

⛈️STORM AFTERMATH: Powerful winds ripped down a gas station awning in Bartlett, Illinois, 35 miles north of Chicago on Thursday. Parts of Chicago were under a Tornado Warning during a severe weather outbreak. More storms are expected to develop across the Midwest this afternoon. Watch FOX Weather for the latest severe weather coverage:

Here is a 6 hour loop of the likely Derecho we just had through the Midwest impacting Madison, Wisconsin and Chicago, now moving through Michigan. Check out all the reports of wind damage and measurements that have come in so far! Round 2 is brewing in Eastern Iowa and will make its way across some of the same areas that were impacted just hours before. More rounds of significant storms are also expected in the same area tomorrow...

The damaging wind swath from Wednesday, June 10 has been preliminarily confirmed as a derecho. The wind swath had a track length over 400 miles with a footprint just under 100,000 square miles. The strongest known gust was measured at over 94 mph.

Storm in Chicago😩

WOW! Windows in HIGH RISES were blown out in Chicago, Illinois after DESTRUCTIVE thunderstorms swept across the city earlier this afternoon! Thank you to Sheila for sending this in!

The dying Iowa blob that spent the last 12 hours riding in from Nebraska now crossing #Chicago with a whimper DON’T BE FOOLED! This is not by any means today’s main event. Just a palette cleanser for the Dinnertime (4-7PM) main course forecast severe event to come

Severe storms left a trail of destruction across parts of the Midwest yesterday, including areas just outside Chicago. The following images are from Illinois, where a building sustained significant roof damage in Kane County, while whole trees were toppled and branches were snapped in Palos Park, a village located about 19 miles southwest of downtown Chicago. Additionally, Chicago's Midway Airport recorded a 72-mph gust as the same severe storm that can be seen across the horizon overlooking downtown Chicago in the bottom-righthand image passed through. Tormentas severas dejaron un rastro de destrucción en partes del Medio Oeste ayer incluyendo algunas áreas justamente fuera de Chicago. Las siguientes imágenes son de Illinois, donde un edificio sufrió daño de techo significativo en el Condado Kane, mientras que vimos árboles enteros en el suelo y ramas de árbol rotas en Palos Park, que es un pueblo ubicado a unas 19 millas al suroeste del centro de Chicago. Además, el Aeropuerto Midway en Chicago registró una ráfaga de 72 mph con el paso de la misma tormenta severa que se muestra en la imagen de abajo a la derecha a lo lejos en el horizonte con vistas desde el centro de Chicago.

HEADS UP!! 🌬️ The winds were HOWLING in downtown Chicago Wednesday afternoon as strong storms raced through Northern Illinois - with multiple reports of wind related damage around the greater Chicago area. Flying pool chairs may be another hazard of today as more severe is expected in the Midwest. #ILwx

Let's see how this ML-based tornado outlook for today verifies. While the main risk is likely QLCS tornadoes vs. long-lived supercells, these can still do significant damage. Watch out anywhere from Davenport and Dubuque, IA metros through northern IL, far southern WI and NW IN!

No real questions as to what will be driving the global circulation come this winter:

Hurricane season could start out with a bang in the Atlantic. Reduced eastern Pacific development chances and a digging central US trough are reasons to watch the GOM carefully late next week into next weekend: hurricanehacker.substack.com…

TROPICS: One of several things I am watching for is the chance of early season, 'close to home' weak tropical development before the real hostile effects of El Nino really settle in. The Caribbean is about 3 weeks ahead of typical ocean heat average. Continued dry, hot, and sunny weather in the Gulf, Bahamas, and Caribbean in the next 10-14 days will likely add to the ocean warming. It would not be a surprise to me at all if there was an impactful weaker system or two around in the southeast U.S. pre-July 4th this year.