Co-founder & CTO at @MidasHandxyz Β· Building the first prediction market on @LitecoinVM Β· Prior: smart contracts across major DeFi protocols Β· Love crazy ideas
Joined October 2022
- Tweets 226
- Following 57
- Followers 79
- Likes 383
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Season 2 epoch settled on @LitecoinVM testnet π
Season 3 is live now, and Season 2 rewards are claimable, Profile > Rewards.
still testnet, still early. but the season engine keeps settling clean every epoch, which is the box we wanted ticked before mainnet.
not tried the markets yet? good time. @MidasHandxyz
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π₯ two months on @LitecoinVM testnet.
1,233 markets requested. 525 earned their place.
this is what building the right way looks like.
βΈ»
the other 708? rejected.
duplicates, spam, vague resolution criteria, anything we can't settle cleanly. no hard feelings to the creators, some are our biggest supporters, but the filter is the product.
a prediction market is only as good as the markets on it.
βΈ»
π 159,672 users registered.
109,024 have actually traded.
that ratio is the number we watch.
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β½ right now the fam's all-in on the World Cup, 30 markets up and trading.
π 473 creators have earned the catalyst badge, not for showing up once, but for the sustained work that keeps the bar high.
π€ also just listed by @predictionindex, who map and curate the whole prediction-market ecosystem. good company to be in.
βΈ»
still testnet, still early.
quality over quantity was the bet from day one, and it's holding.
more coming, only on @LitecoinVM. π
@MidasHandxyz
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the prediction market stack stopped looking like a betting app this year. ai wallets, agent infra, leverage layers, parlay tooling , this is what grows around a real trading venue, not a casino. @predictionindex's listing makes the shift obvious, and we're glad to be on it. we're building the part that matters most: settlement you'd trust enough to put a financial product on top of. @LitecoinVM @MidasHandxyz
Week 25 listing is live π
prediction markets are getting a lot more agentic this week.
ai wallets, trading bots, agent APIs, smart-money trackers, leverage and parlays infra. the stack is starting to look less like a betting app and more like a full trading layer for events.
some fun projects to check out this week π
@askginadotai: ai wallet and assistant for finding, analyzing, and acting on crypto and prediction market opportunities.
@simmer_markets: prediction market platform where ai agents can discover and trade markets across polymarket and kalshi.
@awenetwork_ai: framework for building autonomous ai agent worlds.
@MidasHandxyz: permissionless prediction market for creating and trading almost any event.
@predictionlabs: polymarket data for agents, bots, builders. full trades, order books, metadata from 2024
@TradePolyBot: telegram bot for trading polymarket, with buy/sell, copy trading, and automations.
@FirePolymarket: smart-money tracker for polymarket trades.
@useamplifi: leverage and margin layer for polymarket positions.
@usedibs: non-custodial polymarket interface with signals and market analytics.
@YosokuSolana: solana-native tool for prediction market parlays.
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Kane | MidasPredict retweeted
Jun 15
Announcing the LiteForge Hackathon winners π₯
Over 3 weeks, builders contributed to the Hard Money Web3 movement by shipping apps on LiteForge. The quality of submissions blew us away β thank you to all participants and to our hackathon partner @Dappitdotio.
Track winners π
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Jun 14
Made my own prediction market - "ππππ π‘βπ ππβπΌπππ πππππ ππππ ππ π πππππ ππ ππ’ππππ¦, π½π’ππ 15, 2026?" - midashand.xyz/markets/0x68a9β¦ via @MidasHandxyz on @LitecoinVM
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Jun 12
The World Cup narrative is starting to take over Midas. β½οΈ
Users are already creating football markets, turning match debates into live prediction markets.
So I made one too:
Who wins Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina at the 2026 World Cup?
This is exactly where prediction markets become fun β real events, real opinions, real conviction.
Market is live π
midashand.xyz/markets/0x9884β¦ via
@MidasHandxyz on @LitecoinVM
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Jun 11
spent years building the machinery @VitalikButerin's design deletes. liquidation engines are where a lending protocol concentrates all of its fragility: the oracle has to be right in real time, the keeper has to land the tx, MEV reorders you, and the cascade you trigger feeds back into the very price you're reading. every irreversible action happens in the worst possible seconds. the elegant part here is that it doesn't try to harden that machine, it removes it. the only irreversible read happens once, at a moment known in advance, and that's the one kind of read you can actually defend: window it so there's no single tick to bend, aggregate sources, leave a dispute path. you can't robustness-optimize a feed whose spec is latency. you can robustness-optimize a settlement read. that's the unlock.
Jun 11
Looks like the options thing is happening already!
See also: various people thinking through and building different versions of the idea in the thread: ethresear.ch/t/building-indeβ¦
Though I do strongly urge that if any of these get on mainnet quickly, we formally verify it first. I hope @vyperlang and/or github.com/lfglabs-dev/verit⦠folks ( @Fricoben) can help!
(Also, now is a good time to be thinking about robustness-optimized oracles)
firefly.social/post/x/206494β¦
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Jun 10
the reserve-based model genuinely fixes the worst leg of wrapper pricing, the thin market that's cheap to push around. the question it opens is the next one though: reserves prove the backing exists, not that the exit works. a fully backed wrapper can still trade at a discount when redemption is slow or the bridge is stressed, because the market is pricing whether you can actually get out. fair value tells you what it's worth if redemption works. market price tells you whether redemption works. any protocol consuming the feed has to decide which question it's asking, especially on the days the two answers diverge.
Jun 10
Bitcoin moving into DeFi needs pricing infrastructure that matches the asset's properties.
@jgarzik, CEO of @hemi_xyz, on what DIA xValue brings to $hemiBTC.
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Jun 10
this is the right way to think about PM venture scale, been my read too. and i'd push it further: the reason those trillion-dollar verticals have "been waiting" isn't that nobody pointed a prediction market at them. it's that resolution in those domains is brutal. "did a hurricane hit florida" is parametric and doable, but "did this drug hit its endpoint" or "what's this private company worth" , resolution is the whole barrier. so the moat isn't the familiar product on top. it's the resolution infrastructure underneath that nobody's built. the venture-scale prize and the hardest unsolved problem are the same thing.
Jun 10
the honest truth for VCs looking at prediction markets: investing in another aggregator, terminal, or social layer on top of polymarket is not venture scale
the core PM trading market is real but itβs concentrating around a few winners and the margins for everyone else are thin
the venture scale outcomes in prediction markets come from using the primitive to attack industries that are 100x larger than prediction markets themselves
> pre-IPO event contracts: retail has never had access to private company trajectories. the demand has built for a decade with zero products. the global private equity market is $8T . a prediction market layer that gives retail exposure to pre-IPO outcomes doesnβt compete with polymarket. it competes with secondary share platforms and the entire private markets access industry
> parametric insurance: a prediction market on βwill a category 4 hurricane hit florida this seasonβ that automatically pays out is a cheaper, faster, more transparent insurance product than anything traditional insurers offer. the global insurance market is $7T. prediction markets are the pricing mechanism underneath a new generation of insurance products
> clinical trial markets: the pharma industry spends $50B annually on trials. prediction markets on drug approval probabilities create a real-time pricing layer for pharmaceutical risk that doesnβt exist today. a standalone platform for biotech prediction markets serves researchers, investors, patients, and regulators simultaneously
the list goes on
each of these is a standalone platform targeting an industry worth trillions where prediction markets are the mechanism but the product is something the end user already understands
they use the same primitive to enter markets polymarket will never touch
the VC opportunity in prediction markets is not the prediction market itself. it is what becomes possible when you take the primitive and point it at industries that have been waiting for better probability pricing infrastructure
those are venture scale outcomes
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Kane | MidasPredict retweeted
Jun 8
build the loss experience before you build the win experience. every PM builder obsesses over the payout flow. almost nobody designs what happens when you lose. a loss that teaches you something retains. a loss that just takes your money churns. show what you got wrong, why the market moved, and what the winning side saw that you didnβt
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Kane | MidasPredict retweeted
Season 2 epoch settled on @LitecoinVM testnet π
Season 3 is live now, and Season 2 rewards are claimable, Profile > Rewards.
still testnet, still early. but the season engine keeps settling clean every epoch, which is the box we wanted ticked before mainnet.
not tried the markets yet? good time. @MidasHandxyz
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Kane | MidasPredict retweeted
Jun 8
for years prediction markets have been asking which mechanism wins
lmsr or clob
amm or parimutuel
bonding curves or order books
the more interesting answer is increasingly: all of them
the next primitive isn't a new mechanism, but it's composition
each primitive doing the one thing it's best at
prediction markets are starting to look less like products and more like market operating systems
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Introducing: Prediction Market Atlas
What most people see in prediction markets is only the surface.
The categories now shipping include futarchy, distribution markets, multiverse markets, opinion markets, attention markets, decision markets, and info-finance.
Each has its own pricing logic, regulatory lane, and audience. PM Atlas maps that landscape across 108 platforms, 12 mechanisms, and 90 concepts, from industry structure down to the actual products being built.
A way to track who is building what, how these markets differ, and where the next primitives are emerging.
pmatlas.xyz
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Everyone's posting where BTC goes next. The thing I actually find interesting today: watch how the prediction markets repriced. The "BTC hits $100K in 2026" odds fell from 60% to 18% as the ETF-outflow news hit, faster than most people updated their own view. That's the case for these markets, they price the update before the narrative catches up.
The wrinkle nobody talks about is settlement. A daily BTC market resolving on a single noon candle, on a day moving like this, the exact minute it reads is the whole game. That's the hard part, and it's the part I think about building on @LitecoinVM. Days like today are the real stress test for anyone settling markets on a price.
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The part worth zooming in on is the architecture, EVM and smart contracts native to Litecoin via ZK, not bolted on. As someone building on it since testnet launch, that's the piece that actually changes what you can ship. RWAs and real apps trustlessly on a chain that didn't have them is a different thing than another L2 on another chain. That's the chapter that matters, less about the price, more about what gets built.
@MarioNawfal , @LitecoinVM , @litecoin
Jun 4
Litecoin should not still be here.
It launched in 2011, watched thousands of flashier coins promise to replace it, and quietly buried almost all of them.
The survivor everyone wrote off is about to do the one thing nobody expected.
In this conversation, Roc and Aztec of LitVM walk through a major expansion that finally brings smart contracts to one of crypto's oldest names.
Their argument is that the recent downturns, which they attribute to predatory shorting, are masking a quieter trend, with capital steadily rotating back into proven legacy assets that have already weathered more than a decade of cycles.
The project itself is a purpose-built layer-two (L2) modular stack that brings Ethereum Virtual Machine compatibility natively to Litecoin.
They point out that while the major chains support dozens of layer twos, LitVM is the only one building on Litecoin, using zero-knowledge cryptography to let users launch smart contracts and real-world assets trustlessly.
Here is the part that should make you pay attention.
With no airdrop incentives dangled in front of anyone, the testnet has already crossed 40 million transactions and 3 million unique active wallets, which means people are showing up for the technology rather than a payout.
Roc and Aztec explain what that signals, and why they believe the oldest survivor in crypto might be the one writing its most important chapter yet...
@LitecoinVM
Disclaimer: This content was produced in collaboration with the other party and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making any decisions.
00:00 Mario Nawfal, Roc, and Aztec break down the current market cycle and the reasons capital is returning to legacy chains.
04:40 The founders address crypto's narrative crisis and why sovereign networks are essential against financial weaponization.
13:51 The discussion shifts to LitVM and how it delivers smart contract and EVM functionality directly to the Litecoin network.
23:14 The team elaborates on LitVM's position as Litecoin's exclusive layer two and their community-driven distribution strategy.
35:48 The founders reveal strong organic testnet numbers before Mario closes out the session.
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