As I mentioned on the call with
@DimitryNakhla and
@DrewCohenMoney, when most people hear the word “bubble,” they immediately think of something like the Dot Com crash, the Financial Crisis, or Covid. They think of stock prices collapsing, businesses struggling, and investors losing money very quickly. That’s certainly one type of bubble, but I don’t think it’s the only type.
Sometimes a bubble doesn’t end with a crash. Sometimes the business continues performing well, revenue keeps growing, earnings keep growing, and management keeps executing. The problem is that investors became so optimistic that they paid a price that already assumed years of future success.
$MSFT is probably one of the best examples. If you had looked only at the business, you would have seen a company becoming stronger, more profitable, and more dominant. Yet despite all that progress, the stock largely went nowhere for more than a decade because the valuation at the starting point was simply too high.
I think this is one of the most important lessons in investing because many people assume that finding a great company is enough. In reality, a great business and a great investment are not always the same thing. Sometimes you can be completely right about the company and still end up with disappointing returns.
There are really two ways to be wrong as an investor. You can be wrong about the business itself, which is the risk most people spend their time thinking about. Or you can be right about the business but wrong about the price you paid, which in my experience is often the more common mistake.
What’s interesting is that time can be just as effective as a crash when it comes to correcting excess valuation. The market doesn’t always need a stock to fall 70% to fix a bubble. Sometimes the stock simply moves sideways for 10 or 15 years while the business slowly grows into the valuation that investors once paid.
The irony is that some of the highest quality businesses can become the most dangerous investments. When everyone agrees a company is exceptional, that quality often becomes fully reflected in the stock price. At that point, future returns become much more dependent on the valuation than on the quality of the business itself.
This is also why opportunity cost matters so much. Imagine owning a company that grows earnings at 15% annually for a decade, yet the stock produces very little return because the valuation falls from 60 times earnings to 20 times earnings.
Sometimes bubbles end with panic and headlines. Sometimes they end with bankruptcies and forced selling. But sometimes they end much more quietly, through a long period of stagnant returns while the underlying business does everything right.
In many ways, that may be the market’s most effective way of punishing excessive optimism. Not through a crash, but through time.
🌹