Exclusive: In recent weeks, Iran has dramatically escalated efforts to seal off its cache of near bomb-grade uranium, deliberately collapsing tunnels & booby-trapping entrances with explosive mines, per 5 sources familiar w/ US intel. @KatieBoLillis, @davis_winkie, me & @NatashaBertrand cnn.com/2026/06/13/politics/…

There’s a real question mark over what nuclear commitments Iran has made in an MoU. There’s a suggestion from a senior U.S. official that they made commitments on stockpile, decommissioning sites, stopping nuclear program. But a closer look suggests some of that is deceptive. -1-

The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content. In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course.

The UAE is releasing billions of dollars to Iran as part of a deal to reduce bilateral tensions and assist with reopening the strait. It could be as much as $20 billion. $3 billion has already been delivered, confirming rumors from earlier this week. The move comes after the emirates emerged as the single largest target for Iranian missiles and drones during the war. From confrontation to accommodation. reuters.com/world/middle-eas…

This thinking is simply delusional, the result presumably of desperation. The United States bombed Iran constantly for ~6 weeks. Then we blockaded Iran. The idea that one night of bombing would alter Iran's calculus now simply beggars belief. (1/n)

What made Iran bold enough to strike Israel directly? The answer is Trump. Tehran may not field a first-class air force or navy, but they possess the absolute best detection equipment in the world for one specific signal: a lack of willingness to fight. For years, Hamas and Hezbollah detected this exact hesitation in Israel and exploited it to gain ground. Today, Iran is doing the exact same thing to the United States. It comes down to the old idiom: give them an inch, and they’ll start firing at a mile of your sovereign territory. Two months of projected American weakness and a blind obsession with securing a deal have brought us straight to this moment. The collapse started when Washington chose to look the other way during Iranian missile and drone launches in the Gulf. It accelerated every time the U.S. conceded ground just to keep Tehran from abandoning the talks, culminating in the immense pressure to hold Israel back from striking Beirut and the forcing of a hasty, fragile “ceasefire” in southern Lebanon. Tehran smells the desperation and knows exactly what the U.S. is terrified of losing. As an advisor to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei phrased it: “In the bombing in Beirut, the enemy set the negotiating table on fire for the third time.” So far, it seems Iran guessed correctly. Overnight, Trump went on Fox News with a message for Tehran: “You’ve shot your missiles, that’s enough, get back to the table and make a deal.” In so many words, Trump is simply repackaging Joe Biden’s infamous April 2024 warning to Iran: “Don’t.” Judging by the multiple, separate ballistic barrages launched from Iranian territory this morning, it promises to be just as effective. .... To read the rest of today's newsletter click here amitsegal.substack.com/p/its…

For what it's worth, I think Trump is all bluster and he's no more likely to attack Iran than he was to unleash "fire and fury" on North Korea. If Khamenei invites Trump to a summit, Trump will be saluting IRGC Generals left and right.