🚀 Brad Gerstner on the historic SpaceX IPO — and why it's a win not just for @elonmusk, but for all of America: "What an incredible day this is for America. What an incredible day it is for the hard work of the thousands of people at Starbase who've worked to put us back on the top in space. Remember, when @SpaceX got started, we didn't even have a shuttle to go to space to pick up our own astronauts. We were paying the Russians to go get our astronauts. Today, we're back on the top in space." — @altcap on @CNBC

Why is Brad Gerstner calling Cursor the thing getting the least attention as SpaceX goes public? Because if Grok 4.3 reaches the coding frontier, SpaceX will combine: - The largest proprietary coding dataset (more than the public internet) - The largest available compute cluster - The fastest-growing agentic coding product $10B ARR exit rate from Cursor in 2026. 1.5T parameter base model. Data injected into pre-training. @altcap says it is the upside scenario the market hasn't priced. The full breakdown on what that means for the IPO: podcastalpha.substack.com/p/… Source: BG2 Pod - youtube.com/watch?v=Tx9jT2c6…

Noam Brown (@polynoamial) posted something profound this week. Frontier models can solve most problems if you just let them run long enough. Nobody has ever run Mythos for a full year. We may never know how smart any given generation actually is. @GavinSBaker's takeaway: however bullish he was on compute before that post, he's more bullish now. @altcap

⚡ Gavin Baker on why Elon's data center strategy is printing money — and Brad Gerstner on why nobody saw it coming: "If you can borrow money at 6, 7, 8% and invest in something with a 55% ARR, I'm not the most sophisticated thinker, but that math maths... We do know from Jensen that @elonmusk brings data centers up faster than anyone, 122 days. Speed is literally cost." "This whole category of taking all of this compute, which he's uniquely good at standing up, and then reselling it in a way that's highly profitable was not in a lot of people's forecasts — now it's a major component of the forecast." — @GavinSBaker & @altcap on @BG2Pod / BGGB Pod As Jensen Huang said, “Elon is an N of 1.”

A richness of great insight on the @BG2Pod from @GavinSBaker ...too many to choose from but here's a few good ones: “Something very important on open source: there’s this belief that it’s bearish for AI. It’s actually — maybe bearish for the frontier models — but really bullish for compute and hardware. If the frontier models are capturing less of the margin, then you’re going to spend more on compute. The better open source does, the better it is for compute providers..." “Two things can be true. The majority of economic value may continue to accrue to the frontier — and man, has it ever accrued to the frontier thus far. And the majority of tokens consumed in the world may be open source — and they are today. I think this current state is likely to persist.” "There is a belief that these data centers are commodities. I do not share that belief. In the same way that Elon was able to re-engineer a rocket from first principles and make it reusable, he engineered an electric car from first principles — I think he looked at data center design from first principles and designed something fundamentally different." "My understanding is that Cursor and Anthropic have more tokens of proprietary coding data than anyone else — and each have more tokens of proprietary coding data than exist on the public internet. Cursor used Kimi K2.5, used their own private data, did some RL, some supervised fine-tuning, and got a really good model. Then they spent three weeks in the Colossus 2 cluster and got a model that 12 days ago was Pareto dominant with Composer 2.5. It suggests the Cursor data is very valuable for coding, and that XAI/SpaceX has a shot at being a real player in coding.” “Nobody has run Mythos for a year continuously, and we may never know how smart each generation of models actually is or was — because we don’t have time to appropriately evaluate their intelligence before the next model comes out. This is a profound statement...Imagine Albert Einstein had just thought about fundamental physics 24 hours a day. He doesn’t have to eat, doesn’t have to sleep, never gets old, never has diminution of intelligence — and he thought for one year. We might already have solved a lot of these intractable problems. My takeaway was: however bullish I was on compute before, I’m just a lot more bullish.” On $NVDA: If all of his customers are going to compete with him, then why not compete with his customers? He has his own models that are really, really good — Nemotron 3.1 was really cool from a compute-efficiency perspective, and he’s always careful to release small models so as to not tread on Anthropic, OpenAI, Google’s toes. But that is a choice he is making. If the economics change, I think Nvidia can join the frontier and become one of the world’s largest cloud computing companies much faster than people think.” “Clark’s analysis shows that XAI’s deal with Google for cloud computing generates more operating profit per gigawatt than Anthropic, than Meta, than Google, than OpenAI. Freda calculated a 55% IRR on Colossus 1. If you can borrow money at 6, 7, 8% and invest in something with a 55% IRR — I’m not the most sophisticated thinker, but that math maths.” “I always imagine stocks as runners. In ‘22 that runner had gone downhill — it had a lot of energy. The market, particularly in the last two months, has run up a very steep hill. A lot of these stocks — forget climbing a mountain — they’ve gone straight up a cliff. They’re tired. They need to rest. Do they just rest at the top of the cliff, hang out in their harness, or do they need to go downhill for a bit? We’ll see. I do see a lot on X about finding the next bottleneck — I think that was the last game. That game is over.”

The AI market rally in 2026 has one anchor. It's private. podcastalpha.substack.com/p/… @altcap Gerstner holds Anthropic equity with non-public financial access. His claim: without Anthropic's 2026 revenue delivery, the market would be down 10-15% right now. Not NVIDIA. Not OpenAI launches. Anthropic's profit path. High gross margins and a path to positive FCF in Q2 2026 triggered the market's ascent out of a deep correction. One private company validated that AI revenue was real and profitable. The anchor is private. The companies depending on it are public. If Anthropic's next revenue update disappoints, every AI-correlated position loses its primary justification. Source: TBPN (@tbpn) - youtube.com/watch?v=HRYysSAv…

We now know the SpaceX / Anthropic deal was for 325k GPUs! Have to make some assumptions on the mix shift of type of GPUs, but this probably translates to ~450mw This translates to ~$33m / MW / Year. About 3x "market rate" but this feels like a short term "surge pricing" deal

Anthropic has confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Pending completion of SEC review, this gives us the option to pursue an initial public offering. Read more: anthropic.com/news/confident…

Brad @altcap at his best True love for giving youtu.be/HRYysSAv-Ro?si=QnZx… via @YouTube

"Lest we be overconfident in Silicon Valley, let's remember a small group of activists shut down supersonic technology, and all nuclear energy in this country. It's a disaster." @altcap explains why a data center moratorium would be "horrific" for America: "All of our GDP growth is coming from the fact that we are building data centers and driving productivity improvements in the economy." "A data center moratorium would thrust us straight into a recession and high unemployment." "Secondly, it would cede the entire global game to China. Overnight, we would lose to China in the global AI race. Which is not just about AI, it's about economic security, jobs, and national security."

Love it thanks my friend. Let’s do a BGGB episode sometime

Robert Reich forgot the 6th and most common way: 6) Build something millions of people actually want

Back-of-envelope numbers for 1 gigawatt data center: All-in Capex: ~$50 bn Enterprise revenue generated: ~$25-30 bn/year Electricity cost: $1-2 bn/year ~2 year payback. The boom is real.

$NVDA CEO: “Inference demand will go up by a billion times.” We are just in the very early innings. Compute demand will likely grow by another 10x over the next decade and current TAM projections for GPU/CPU will look too conservative in hindsight. $AMD $NVDA $INTC $ARM

🚨BREAKING: DELL Technologies (NYSE: $DELL ) Has Filed to LEAVE DELAWARE for Texas $137 BILLION market cap. The filing points to a $1 BILLION Delaware settlement Dell paid in 2023. $266.7 MILLION of it went straight to the attorneys. Why Texas: - Reduces frivolous, opportunistic lawsuits - Business-friendly regulatory framework built for growth - A new Business Court designed for complex corporate disputes

Cloud Giants Update: AWS (Amazon): $150B run rate growing 28% YoY (last Q grew 24%) Azure (Microsoft): ~$108B run rate (estimate) growing 39% YoY (last Q grew 38%) Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $80B run rate growing 63% YoY (last Q grew 48%, neither are cc)