how are we performing worse amongst the group we’ve spent the last 2 years exclusively focusing on
Our latest 7 segment voting intention splits. A few things jump out:
1) The Greens are now firmly the choice of Progressive Activists, the most socially and economically left leaning segment. Labour are now 30 points down with this group from 2019.
2) Labour on the other hand despite haemorrhaging votes elsewhere have *gained* voters since 2024 among Established Liberals, the most secure, optimistic and globally minded group and least likely to say Britain is broken. It shows politics is increasingly non-linear. Unfortunately for them ELs are only 9%.
3) Reform's breakout from 2024 is moving from just leading the Dissenting Disruptors (the group most unhappy with the status quo who want to 'burn it all down' to now leading the 3 Socially Conservative segments.
4) The most crucial to Reform (and Tories/Labour) are the Rooted Patriots, one of the largest groups who have typically decided elections. Socially conservative, but economically left leaning, they are much more risk averse than Dissenting Disruptors who Reform won in 2024.
On an issue like immigration RPs worry most about pressure on services vs Dissenting Disruptors whose concern is more rooted in erosion of cultural identity.
Labour have collapsed among RPs which explains some of their terrible local election results, while they're unlikely to ever get commanding leads in this group they need enough RPs in their tent because of how important they are in terms of geographic split.
Reform's risk though is that this group have a real aversion to disorder/disruption and value following the rules - they were among the most supportive of strict lockdowns e.g. - if Reform is seen as a vector for disorder. Respect matters a lot to this group.
5)Big Q for the Greens is whether they can now break through among Scepticial Scrollers (the youngest most disillusioned group) and the Incrementalist Left (more disengaged, left leaning but see good in some of status quo, conflict averse). Again the Q for the Greens would be, how do you motivate SS to vote and reassure enough ILs it's not dangerous to vote Green.
6) For the Tories the existential danger is they don't now lead among any group (they're even tied with Traditional Conservatives). If they lose blue wall Established Liberals left and Rooted Patriots/Traditional Conservatives right they don't have a base.