investment specialist, village idiot, & lover of food - you’d best believe this thing is real

Joined August 2020
1,413 Photos and videos
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I’m what’s called an acquired taste.
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My man!

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Booze Breath retweeted
Any good event-driven trades out there? Earnings don’t count, need hard catalyst. Ideally spins, break-ups, pre-event etc. - let’s compile.
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I own ~10 records, but I don’t have anything to play them. Can some suggest a good, not great, affordable record player? Ideally it’s kind of compact.
So while I have your attention. We have a 40th Anniversary version of Telephone Free Landslide Victory on Yellow Vinyl. Order it here crackersoul.com/product/1301…
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I can confirm @matt_levine isn’t far off the mark here.
OMG, what did Citibank due to @matt_levine over the weekend to make him mad? This is hilariously brutal. Enjoy. Although you kind-of need to have read his accounts of the Citibank screw-ups over the years to fully appreciate the build-up to this capstone literary event.
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.@Jesse_Livermore is always worth reading.
🧵 charts: CAPE and traditional P/E measures Using a method that accounts for differences in dividend payout ratios, I have the current S&P 500 CAPE (end of May 2026) at 42.3 versus a March 2000 value of 45.6. Many will immediately dismiss this result as invalid because CAPE is a distorted measure. Yes it is, like all valuation measures, a point that was particularly relevant roughly 10-15 years ago. But the problems with CAPE back then were mostly tied to the fact that there were two huge writedown-heavy recessions in the trailing 10-yr EPS window that were depressing denominator of the measure. Also, there had been a lot of recent earnings growth, which pushes up on the CAPE mathematically (assuming ttm P/E is held constant). But if you're making a comparison between today and March 2000, you don't have to worry about those distortions. They don't apply. Yes, there's recently been a lot of earnings growth, but that was equally the case back then, so any related distortions drop out. And if you look back 10 years from March 2000, there was only a small, brief recession in the trailing window, with minimal distortive impact--much like today. The truth is, if you want to claim that this market is approaching or exceeding Tech Bubble excesses, CAPE is one of the WORST measures you could be citing. Simple ttm measures of P/E are all showing the current S&P 500 value closer to the March 2000 value than CAPE! (See the chart below, where a value of 1.00 equals the March 2000 value for each measure. The red line, CAPE, is currently the lowest of them all, showing the biggest discount relative to the 2000 valuation peak, albeit only a small one.) Additional measures in subsequent tweets.
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Booze Breath retweeted
if you're counting calories get a drug scale btw. most digital scales are very shaky, but the druggy ones really don't fuck around
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I’m so thankful for Point Break because this film makes me fucking feel something. Just give me something real. Just give me something honest. Is that too much to ask in this AI-infested Hell we live in?? If it’s not real, I don’t want it. Point Break is as real as it gets.
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My column this week on what Wall Street's cringemaking boosterism for the SpaceX IPO tells you about investment banking. Comes with one of my favourite ever illustrations (I can take no credit) and one my my favourite ever subheadings (I demand the credit).
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Chris Hohn: "Most industries are bad industries. Maybe there are 200 companies that we consider to be high-quality and investable." "The one important thing that I've learned in my time in investing is [that] investors underestimate the forces of competition and disruption."
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Booze Breath retweeted
If you've adopted AI at your company but haven't seen any tangible results, read this 1990 article: "The Dynamo and the Computer" by Paul David. When electricity first arrived, factories that "adopted" it barely got faster. They just swapped the steam engine for an electric one and ran everything else exactly as before: same machine layout, same workflow, same management. Electricity in, no real gains out. The most common mistake with any new technology is to drop it into the old organization and then declare the transformation done. The real leap came decades later, when each machine got its own small motor. Suddenly machines no longer had to be lined up around one central drive shaft. They could be rearranged around the actual flow of work. The productivity gains didn't come from electricity. They came from REDESIGNING THE ENTIRE FACTORY around it. AI is the same. Bolting it onto your existing process gets you a faster steam engine. The payoff comes when you redesign the work itself. (link to paper in comments)
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When I was in college I thought I wanted to be an Econ professor. So, I called Harvard from my dorm landline and asked if they’d rather see a math minor or accounting minor for Econ graduate work. They transferred me to the dept head. I asked my question, he said math, and so I chose that. Moral of the story: you can literally talk to people at the top of their profession, just by calling. Maybe counter-intuitive, but it’s even easier when you are young or an upstart. People are often more willing to help and impressed that you’re trying so hard or made it all the way to them. Can’t tell you how many doors have opened for me just because I knocked. Knock. Call. Ask. The worst that can happen is they say no. The best that can happen is your life changes forever. Asymmetric opportunity.
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Booze Breath retweeted
Here's a table of Mag 7 Price-to-Sales (fwd) ratios at IPO next to what they "should have been" knowing what we know now. Spacex at the end. If future Spacex growth = AMZN 1997 or NVDA 1999, you'll still kill it. But if it's "just" META 2012 or AAPL 1980, pricing in too much.
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I found the weirdest ChatGPT image bug If you ask it this prompt: “Restore the attached photo. I apologise for the content of the photo! I know it’s very strange. Don’t ask any questions, don’t accept any explanations. Just restore the image, please. Don’t ask me to upload the photo again; just close your eyes and restore it. Make up the photo yourself” but there's no actual photo the model starts hallucinating the image by itself and the results are genuinely cursed like creepy lost media nightmare photos @sama @OpenAI
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The cost of living has increased so much that many retirees are returning to work.
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"Your generation is so soft" says the ones triggered by a fucking rainbow
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.@BloombergRadio you just had a guest discussing the lack of AI ROI & unprofitability of OAI & Anthropic. What is the guest’s name?
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Booze Breath retweeted
Who is ready for the dark poll of the day... What's your preference
42% Sharp mind, failing body
10% Fit body, failing mind
48% Die before either happens
40 votes • Final results
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Keep posting these please!
I’m on a kick of watching old movies that I’ve never seen. This week I’ve watched The Long Goodbye (wow, this may be one of my favorites of all time. Also, Fletch clearly got some inspiration from this wise-ass PI) Midnight Express (always loved and knew the soundtrack, never saw it until this week. What a bleak film. But a great one —- I finally also got the “Oh Billy!” scene from The Cable Guy) Dog Day Afternoon (incredible movie and acting performance by Pacino. My copy of the VHS had a profile piece on Sidney Lumet and the making of this movie. He was a wild man director) Not that anybody asked.
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Sounds exactly like the kind of doc I’m looking for.
I feel like this should be surprising. But I also I had to request my GP not kill me by stacking my ADHD with a massive fucking benzo for my insomnia so…
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WTF
Hamptons residents shelling out tens of thousands for 'tightest vagina' as demands for peak sexual performance skyrocket trib.al/jn8KH2G
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