Thoughtful take.
Ontario’s political, civic, and business leaders are not engaged enough on Alberta separatism.
It should be understood as a warning about the state of Confederation and Ontario’s failure to play the leadership role this country has historically expected of us.
Ontario’s economy has been misgoverned for nearly 30 years. The consequence for Canada’s economic math is that Alberta is carrying a disproportionate and increasing burden.
In 2000, Ontario contributed about $26.4 billion more to Ottawa than it received back, compared with Alberta’s $7.2 billion.
On a per-person basis, that was about $2,250 per Ontarian and $2,400 per Albertan.
By 2022/23, Ontario’s net contribution was about $22.1 billion, or roughly $1,400 per person. Alberta’s was $14.2 billion, or roughly $3,000 per person.
The long-term picture is even more striking. From 2007 to 2022, Alberta’s net contribution to federal finances was about $245 billion. Ontario’s was about $42 billion.
The implicit contract that Ontario would be a leader in this country has weakened, just like Ontario allowed its social contract between generations to weaken too.
Meanwhile, our political class has too often shown disdain for Albertan complaints, undermined their key economic industries, and treated Alberta’s cultural identity with a condescension we would never show toward Quebec.
When Quebec was at risk of leaving, Ontarians showed their love urged the province to stay. Our civic leaders, business leaders, and ordinary people understood that national unity required more than constitutional and legal arguments.
Right now, we see very little of that seriousness toward Alberta.
It is time for Ontario’s leaders, particularly Premier Ford, to show that we are serious about building a strong Canada with Alberta. Building greater east-west ties is a matter of national urgency.
Many of the seeds are already there. But execution remains painfully slow. MOUs are not action.
We should be deliberately accelerating national energy and transport corridors through Ontario.
We should be investigating the merit of an oil pipeline from Alberta to refineries and industrial centres in Southern Ontario, including Sarnia and Nanticoke.
This could support the expansion of plastics, petrochemicals, upgrading, and other value-added industrial jobs here in Ontario.
The viability of such a project cannot be judged only on commercial grounds. It should also be judged on national interest, sovereignty, resilience, and whether it helps hold the country together. That also demands federal partnership.
I recognize the challenges of exporting oil from the east coast, including Quebec’s opposition to pipelines. But I also believe many Quebecers would be supportive in this moment if the project were framed as one of national unity and shared economic strength.
And if that path is not viable, we should still be investigating export alternatives, eg. expanding the port of Saint John in New Brunswick and using vessels appropriate for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence were practical.
Alberta separatism is not inevitable, but every dismissive comment, every legal obstacle, and every act of elite condescension makes the separatist argument easier to sell.
We saw this with Brexit, where leaders mistook frustration for ignorance, and assumed people would eventually accept a system led by people they no longer trusted.
Have we learned nothing?
A stronger Canada is possible, and Albertan separation is far from inevitable.
But Ontarios leaders need to step up and show Albertans their best future is with Canada.