What if we are being misinformed in order to keep a lid on the oil price? What if talks are actually NOT going well and a peace treaty is NOT in fact imminent? What if there is no actual "cease fire" given ongoing kinetic action by both sides? What if Exxon and Chevron are right and working inventory levels are about to be breached in the coming weeks resulting in a price spike? What if the Strait does NOT in fact open, while everyone believes it will because "it has to"? What then???

“The conversation between Mike Rothman and Rick Rule challenges mainstream narratives around oversupply and instead presents a case for a tightening market. From flawed demand forecasts to declining investment, the episode sets the stage for a potentially explosive shift in energy prices.”

Rick Rule & Mike Rothman Warn Oil Could Hit $200 Faster Than Anyone Expects 👉 Watch the Full Episode: youtu.be/QcyP1m-gjpE  📩 Mike Roth Email: sales@cornerstoneanalytics.com  📩 Rick Rule: ruleinvestmentmedia.com  Rick Rule, one of the most respected natural resource investors of the past 50 years, and Mike Rothman, founder of Cornerstone Analytics and a veteran energy market analyst. Recording Date 4-28-2026. In this episode, Rick and Mike into a bold and controversial thesis that the world is not facing an oil glut but a structural supply crisis. Mike brings decades of experience studying oil supply, demand, and geopolitics, while Rick offers a capital allocator’s perspective shaped by cycles across mining, energy, and commodities. Together, they explore whether the world is on the brink of a major energy bull market. The conversation challenges mainstream narratives around oversupply and instead presents a case for a tightening market. From flawed demand forecasts to declining investment, the episode sets the stage for a potentially explosive shift in energy prices. Key Insights in this episode ✅ Global oil demand continues to rise despite higher prices, defying traditional economic theory ✅ Underinvestment of over 3.6 trillion dollars has structurally reduced future oil supply ✅ Non OPEC production growth is slowing while shale output faces steep decline rates ✅ Inventory drawdowns contradict the widespread belief in a global oil glut ✅ Geopolitical disruptions have removed over 10 million barrels per day from supply ✅ Energy equities are still in the middle phase of a multi year secular bull market

———— Podcast from last week 👇

A recent podcast featuring Mike Rothman of Cornerstone Analytics, arguably the best oil analyst in the game. @CornerstoneOil youtu.be/yol1OJaGvOU?si=RZuY…

The oil market just broke in half and nobody priced it. 295 million barrels that the IEA said were sitting in storage turned out to never exist. A single historical revision flipped a 220-million-barrel surplus into a 75-million-barrel deficit across 2022-2024. The data your models run on is structurally wrong. Here is what's actually happening beneath $67 Brent: A shadow fleet of 978-3,300 tankers now carries 18-20% of global capacity. They don't report to any OECD data system. Seven percent of world crude flows through channels invisible to every major forecasting model. China imported a record 13.18 million barrels per day in December. Refinery throughput was 14.7 million. The gap: 2.67 million barrels PER DAY absorbed into strategic storage. That's a national security operation at industrial scale, and it's almost completely opaque. Meanwhile: Diesel cracks in Northwest Europe blew through $30/bbl. Permian Tier 1 acreage is 60% depleted. The EIA forecasts US crude production declining in both 2026 and 2027. Russia's National Welfare Fund lasts 12-18 months at $40 Urals. Saudi Arabia's true fiscal breakeven is $108-111/bbl, not the $90 the IMF publishes. Put options have traded at a premium to calls 93% of the time over the past decade. Upside optionality is the cheapest it's been in a generation. The $60 barrel is not an equilibrium. It is a fault line. Full 12,000-word institutional breakdown with four specific trade constructions, invalidation signals, and the 20 fault lines beneath the price — link below. open.substack.com/pub/shanak…

Finding Nemo, the IEA discovers its ‘missing barrels’ Article by HE Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General, Tuesday, 20 May 2025. Read here➡️ opec.org/sgcorner-detail/15-…

MISSING OIL 🛢 ARAB NEWS MIKE ROTHMAN FEB 14, 2022 The Global Oil Balance is Much Tighter Than is Believed 🧵👇1/x #oilprices #CrudeOil #energycrisis #opec #ESG #GreenEnergy #fintwit #eft #oott #energy #oilandgas #SaudiArabia #RussiaUkraine #RussiaCrisis #ElectricVehicles

It should be obvious by now that the main objective of the IEA is to influence sentiment in the space, mainly keeping it bearish (= create the image of endless supply) since prices are mostly determined by sentiment (oil went down $20 since Feb without much real s&d change).

The image below illustrates why US drilling activity falling and US oil production going into decline matters so much - the US has been the source of nearly all incremental oil supply globally for the past 15 years! Chart from @CornerstoneOil

Oil Market's Missing Barrels Have Gone Up in Smoke - Here is paywall removed Bloomberg article talking about Oil glut gone poof on IEA revision 😀 "The world used about 330,000 barrels a day more in 2023 than was previously reported" archive.md/20250516115017/bl…

What purpose does the IEA serve? It certainly isn’t to provide reliable data. Imagine an advisor telling you one thing for three years and then tell you in the fourth year that they were not only wrong but the truth is the exact opposite. This is the IEA. Mike Rothman has repeatedly addressed the nonsensical “IEA missing barrels” story. For well over a decade (maybe two), IEA has reported these fictitious barrels only later to write them down to reduce their imaginary surplus. IEA should be DOGE’d and everyone should follow @CornerstoneOil and @anasalhajji for accurate information.