Love this thread about a thread.
The top down, macro view is great as long as the underlying variables being averaged out don't change....
But if you don't know what's under the hood, you can't tell if your variable-smoothing model is obsolete. Well not until it is.
Excellent thread and also spot on. But this is not just a problem with agriculture and finance but also with healthcare, defence, manufacturing, construction, energy, telecoms, transport etc.
In every one of those industries ...