Joined November 2008
2,682 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
Benjamin Studebaker on Post-Bonapartism x.com/i/broadcasts/1vJpPrpdm…

1
8
4,559
Understanding UK Politics and Keir Starmer x.com/i/broadcasts/1nxeLLnrv…

3
262
Dialectics and the News x.com/i/broadcasts/1AKEmOplP…

1
1
1,022
I expected the Strait to be open by the end of April, and was wrong. So why was I wrong? Because Iran calculated that Trump would walk away in order to keep the price of gas down and his chances in the midterms up. That may be correct. The markets have priced in a relatively quick resolution of the conflict too. The UK is sending a warship to the Strait to assist with reopening by force. If Iran doesn't make a deal here is what I think will happen next. There will be a US effort to force the Strait open, renewed but limited bombing to reduce Iran's capacity to interfere in the Strait, and eventually an International coalition. But it will take time, traffic won't resume at normal levels for several months, the Bull year will be over, and the Democrats will have a better shot at taking both houses. This doesn't amount to an Iranian victory, but it does amount to a loss for Trump in particular, and a loss for everyone waiting for gas prices to go down.
pretty sure the game has run out.....we can expect Trump to do his usual Sunday "we have had great discussions and are close to a deal" bullshit tomorrow, but the markets aren't buying it anymore Iran has choked Trump, and is in total control of the situation and we and the world, are going to suffer Not gonna lie......waiting on Iran regime to outright call for Trumps unconditional surrender lol
13
5
3,066
The WAPO article is based on an anonymous CIA agent. I remember when 17 intelligence agencies said that Trump was colluding with Russia. The truth is probably betweeen Trump's overhyped claim and this number from the CIA.
President Trump yesterday: "Their missiles are mostly decimated; they have some, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had." WaPo today: "Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began." washingtonpost.com/national-…
6
2
1,686
The Iranian regime is certainly more oppressive and corrupt than the US. This is obvious to everyone.
14
12
2,067
Iran will not control the Strait forever, and Iran is economically and politically in shambles. We should all be fucking glad that a theocratic repressive regime isn't stronger than the most democratic and open country in the world. It's a positive sign.
I sincerely do not understand the arguments that the US/Israel has "won" or is "winning" the Iran war. Strategically speaking, the most important outcomes of the war so far are that Iran controls the Strait and the Iranian government has become much more hardline. It has also probably gained more support from the Iranian population, i.e. it is more entrenched than it was before the war. Now, has the US killed vastly more Iranians (mostly civilians and conscripts) than Iranians have killed Americans? Sure. That's nothing of which to be proud. And more to the point, it doesn't entail the achievement of any strategic goals. If it did, the US won the wars in Afghanistan and Vietnam. Tactical achievements are not strategic victory.
13
1
5
2,126
Hillary Clinton started an FBI investigation into her opponent, perpetrated a fraud on the American people called Russiagate, and her party instituted a massive censorship campaign. The Democrats are certainly as corrupt as Trump.
What a profoundly dishonest argument. Hillary Clinton didn't go to court dozens of times in an attempt to overturn votes, didn't call a state official and pressure him to find her several thousand votes, and didn't have her supporters storm the Capitol. She also conceded.
1
15
956
Project Freedom? (War is Politics by Other Means) x.com/i/broadcasts/1jxXgedww…

2
548
They certainly were saying it won't work. MANY PEOPLE, including this guy, were reporting some of the ways the blockades had leaks as if that indicated the blockade wouldn't inflict much pain. The question now is not whether Iran will comply to the US. The question is how long will it take for the strait to be opened...
Replying to @robin_j_brooks
You're making things up entire Robin, and you know that. NOBODY was saying "the blockade won't work", people were and ARE saying "the blockade will not produce the necessary results unable to be achieved by kinetic strikes in a viable timeline". Completely strawmanning to not have egg on your face from a flawed proposition.
1
2
987
Looks like it.
Hey Doug is the strait open yet
5
2
856
If the ships are led through the Strait what will this dude say?
The Trump game is getting old. This is supposed to be an attempt to manipulate stock prices for Monday but I don't think people are foolish enough to fall for it. This is not happening. What responsible Navy commander would place his ship & soldiers in this kind of danger?
3
1
781
If this does happen, will this guy adjust his theories about the strength of Iran and the epistemological limits white people are operating under?
Folks, this will not happen. Any intrusion into the territorial waters of Iran by a nation currently waging war against it will most likely be met with lethal force. But the psychopathology of white supremacy distorts the cognitive function of those afflicted by it.
1
5
866
Here we have a prediction. I wouldn't be so confident that Iran will retaliate, but we will find out soon enough.
Clearly this is a move from Trump to force Iran’s hand to blame them for restarting the war. Not saying it’s trumps fault they’re stuck (although kinda), but this seems like a great way to guarantee retaliation from Iran. Of course Iran has significant leverage by holding these ships hostage. Morally abhorrent? Yes. Strategically valuable? Yes. So letting Trump waltz in and free all these vessels is not going to happen without Iran retaliating.
2
1
1
665
They actually presuppose that they did happen.
My concern with talking points like these ("Iran is desperate and its capabilities are absurd when compared to US military power") is that they presuppose the events of 28 February-8 April did not happen.
2
2
661
Iran just sent a new peace proposal.
Multiple signs new US strikes on Iran imminent in the coming days: —leaks of new military briefings to Trump —US hypersonic missiles deployed to Gulf —3 US carriers poised to strike —US-Iran talks going nowhere The Escalation Trap has Trump in its grip
3
1
4
999
Why do people insist on saying stuff like this: "This is the biggest military mistake in history!" Do people not recall that WW1 happened?
Robin has been boasting for weeks that the blockade is a brilliant strategy and will weaken Iran, but he made the same mistake the entire US administration has made, failing to understand Iran’s position Iran doesn’t care about revenue right now, they are fighting an existential threat to survival and they will hold out and go the distance to ensure the US and Israel never attacks them again. All they have to do is wait, meanwhile the US has achieved absolutely nothing and oil is out of control. Trump administration ia looking at the biggest US military mistake in history and has no exit from this absolute dumpster fire
2
9
1,184
Clearly, the United States cannot withstand the economic pressure being exerted by Iran.
Another record high! I hope the Boomers cashing in their 401ks are having fun and living the good life. Thank you President Trump!
15
8
2,072
This is pure bullshit. Iran will not continue to hold the Strait, and as an Islamic Republic, probably won't continue much longer either.
Khamenei's latest message is essentially a declaration of Iranian victory, while suggesting that the “humiliating defeat" of the US marks a new era geopolitically, both for the region and globally. While this will be seen as a major exaggeration, it could turn out to be a major inflection point geopolitically, certainly for the region in which Iran's position has become significantly strengthened strategically, while the US security umbrella is increasingly seen as ineffective and unreliable, but also globally as American global primacy cannot be sustained if much weaker powers can not only deny the US victories, but also startegically defeat it by relying on cheaper technology, assymetric tactics, and the use of geography. But none of this will come to pass if Iran loses the peace - meaning, it needs to negotiate a new regional order that is accepted by regional powers and not contested. (Iran's current gains remain effectively contested as we speak). That will not be done militarily, but diplomatically. And that phase has not even properly begun yet.
14
7
1,903